Has anyone else seen a large decrease in turkey numbers in your area?

[Charder]

Sorry posted twice

Edited May 22, 2015 by Charder

[Curmudgeon]

Sounds good.  I'll be up there this weekend.  Hopefully, you'll hear a shot or two from my direction.

 

A shot this morning at around 5:45 probably means 1 of those 4 toms is a goner. It came from that direction. No school today- a leftover snow day. Still, there are plenty.

 

Boy, the yotes were howling like mad last night. Too bad they aren't as good at controlling deer as many believe.

 

[virgil]

Can't wait- heading up tonight.

[gdgnyc]

Yesterday, went to Putnam County for a secone day of hunting. Two very distant gobbles was it. I set up where there were some scratchings (very sparse sign these days) but got nothing.  I will try one more day.

 

This is a dramatic change from 6-7 years ago. Also, this area used to have plenty of grouse cover. Now, nothing. I think habitat change combined with coyotes is to blame.

[growalot]

I haven't been out for a few days but can tell you this...they have all of my woods just tore up...scratching and droppings...there has been yet another good grass hopper hatch...

[turkeyfeathers]

Been out May 1.2.3.5-7.10.and 25th now. Opening day had 3-5 jakes ripping on roost. those jakes were the only gobbling until the 10th when I killed a nice 2 year old. Years past I could hear 4-5 adults ripping on the 70 acres I hunt. Now I think I shot the only adult bird in that woods . There's been usual birds touching off on other mountain . Buddy just said trappers will only be allowed 1 fisher where the season is open this upcoming season.looks like birds will take more of a beating due to fishers. Years past I would hear a grouse or two drumming, this year not a one. winter time I cut a lot of coyote tracks in the snow as well. Even though they hunt them with dogs out that way the population is still striving . Saturday is out last hurrah. Hoping at least to hear a gobble on roost to get the blood pumping and the hopes up

[Curmudgeon]

Working last weekend, I bumped a fourth hen off a nest on my property. The one nest I was monitoring failed. The eggs are gone, carried off - not a piece of shell in sight. She is probably one of the hens I've been seeing with the three remaining toms. They regularly renest. 

 

Grouse are not drumming often here either but that varies from year to year. I have flushed a bunch and found one nest.

 

Considering all the variables over the past 30 years, why is the default position on any negative change in game numbers always coyotes? Coyote populations haven't changed much in the time of the turkey decline. I can understand SPECULATING about fishers. They are a new variable. Does anyone have any data on fisher impacts to turkeys or is this just one more species to add to the "usual suspects"?

 

Even if fishers kill some turkeys, there is another predator/scavenger that has spread across even more of the state in the past 20 years. A species that eats turkey eggs. No one speculates about that protected species being the cause.

 

From that sage Mark Twain: "For every complex problem, there is a simple answer...and it is wrong."

 

 

 

[mbucks27]

Porcupines will eat The eggs also I have seen a ton of them around bye this year both dead and alive.

[The_Field_Ager]

I had a hen nesting near a well used Fox trail. Checked yesterday. No hen, no eggs, no shell splinters. All gone.

[Berniez]

The turkey population in my area (Otsego county) while substantial is definitely down from a few years back.  Now for what I feel are the reasons…

There are 4 factors in determining the Turkey population in any area.  

 1.  As said in the movie “Field of Dreams” ,  “Make it and they shall come”  If the habitat is there we will have birds. The more marginal the habitat the more the mitigating factors play a major role in the local population.

2, The factors that determines the yearly populations is Weather…..and  did I mention…Weather.   A harsh cold snowy winter kills the weakest, youngest, old and the unlucky. (This happens even in great habitat)

3. We need a good spring hatch.  The newly hatched Turkey poults are very susceptible to wet cold weather and need their first few days of life to be warm and dry.  If not the chicks die (up to 90% of the individual brood) and the population drops precipitously.  So the weather in the week in which most turkeys hatch may be a big factor in determining just how many birds are available to breed the following year and how many jakes are running around. (Yes turkeys do re-nest but they go into the winter in less than ideal condition and size. Marginal habitat just makes things worse) 

4. Predators (raccoons) wreak havoc on the nests and eggs and that’s why you need great habitat so the birds are spread out making it harder for the coons to find the nests. (Interesting note:  The rabies epidemic of the late 90’s wiped out 90+ percent of the raccoons and that time frame marks the greatest rise in NY Turkey population.  Is the current rise in raccoon population responsible for the downturn in turkeys???  A factor for sure but how much?????  And rabies in wild animals seems to be on the rise in central NY so while bad for fox, coyote and coons maybe not so much for turkeys.

[gdgnyc]

Curmudgeon

 

My opinion is based upon my observations. I am now weeing much more coyote scat. I was pretty close to a coyote, never been this close.  This leads me to believe that there has been an increase in coyote numbers.  My woods consists of many oak trees. Not spotting grouse suggests that the brushy cover and food is missing. In fact I did not see good grouse cover at all. All this suggests a change in habitat.

 

 

[The_Field_Ager]

. I am now weeing much more coyote scat.

 

 

I'd see a Doctor about that.  

[Goose chaser]

We haven't had a good hatch in several years. Bad winter didn't help, long beards we shot we all 16-18 lbs. Pretty small bodies. Didn't find any winter kills. our part of the southern tier has pretty good habitat , but without good hatches and predator issues, we will never get back to mid '90 numbers.

[mattman77]

I've have been stalked several times in St Lawrence county by yotes while calling over the last 2 years. It is obvious they are actively hunting birds. I had one run 8 yards in front of me after my first call last week. Huge dog!

[gdgnyc]

Papist

 

 

Thank you. I am having trouble typing with my left hand---I am recovering from carpal tunnel surgery. I will be more careful.

[LetEmGrow]

Poor nesting because of cold, wet weather.  This year should produce a great hatch but we need a couple years in a row of weather like this.

[sweet old bill]

I am in the town of Franklin NY, about 13 mile from Oneonta NY...We have a small farm area that has 3 pasture area. I use to see in the early spring about 30 hen's feeding in the pasture for the first of the spring bugs...the last two year this has gone down to just 2 or 3 hens. I think the poor weather for the last two years has had a major impact as well as the  coyotes that seem to feed on young fawn and young baby turkey.

[Curmudgeon]

As many have noted, spring weather is probably the most important factor in turkey recruitment. We've had a couple of bad years. Reread Berniez's comments.

 

The turkey population in my area (Otsego county) while substantial is definitely down from a few years back.  Now for what I feel are the reasons…

There are 4 factors in determining the Turkey population in any area.  

 

 1.  As said in the movie “Field of Dreams” ,  “Make it and they shall come”  If the habitat is there we will have birds. The more marginal the habitat the more the mitigating factors play a major role in the local population. ABSOLUTELY - that's why I have found 4 nests this spring in an area of about 10 acres.

 

2, The factors that determines the yearly populations is Weather…..and  did I mention…Weather.   A harsh cold snowy winter kills the weakest, youngest, old and the unlucky. (This happens even in great habitat) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

3. We need a good spring hatch.  The newly hatched Turkey poults are very susceptible to wet cold weather and need their first few days of life to be warm and dry.  If not the chicks die (up to 90% of the individual brood) and the population drops precipitously.  So the weather in the week in which most turkeys hatch may be a big factor in determining just how many birds are available to breed the following year and how many jakes are running around. (Yes turkeys do re-nest but they go into the winter in less than ideal condition and size. Marginal habitat just makes things worse) Yes, and those late hatching, younger turkeys have NO fat reserves to get through winters like the last two.

 

4. Predators (raccoons) wreak havoc on the nests and eggs and that’s why you need great habitat so the birds are spread out making it harder for the coons to find the nests. (Interesting note:  The rabies epidemic of the late 90’s wiped out 90+ percent of the raccoons and that time frame marks the greatest rise in NY Turkey population.  Is the current rise in raccoon population responsible for the downturn in turkeys???  A factor for sure but how much?????  And rabies in wild animals seems to be on the rise in central NY so while bad for fox, coyote and coons maybe not so much for turkeys. This is a much more likely influence than coyotes. Note: Fishers kill racoons and foxes. I have a camera trap sequence of one running off a coyote.  (I suspect fishers do not eat eggs but can't be sure). Any examination of the affect of fishers needs to input their impact on nest predators for a full understanding of their influence on turkey populations.

 

No one is arguing that coyotes do not kill turkeys. Coyotes will come to turkey calls, so will Great-horned Owls and Northern Goshawks - albeit for different reasons. Everything with young is pressed to feed its brood right now. I had a hunting fox in the yard last evening - brought to my attention by the crows who must have had a fledgling nearby. It was stalking a rabbit. Owls are hunting during the day. There isn't enough dark time for nocturnal/crepuscular predators to accomplish the mission.

 

My question is, why blame coyotes when they have always killed turkeys and their numbers are stable? Why blame coyotes when they help control the mesopredators - the major nest predators? Does anyone have ANY evidence that fishers affect turkey populations?

 

Consider - what do your local turkeys have to eat during snowy winters? Here in Otsego and surrounding counties, the number of dairy farms has declined dramatically in recent years. We used to see flocks of Wild Turkeys come out of cover when a tractor headed out with a manure spreader - running after it. Even the few farms that are left had trouble spreading manure this winter due to the snow pack.

 

 

 

 

[turkeyfeathers]

http://forums.bowsite.com/tf/bgforums/thread-print.cfm?threadid=404102&forum=14

Interesting thread

[jjb4900]

I have a tough time blaming the low turkey numbers on Coyotes and Fisher......from my experience, the turkey population exploded and then dropped to a sustainable population well before the coyote and fisher population became a concern.

[Curmudgeon]

http://forums.bowsite.com/tf/bgforums/thread-print.cfm?threadid=404102&forum=14

Interesting thread

 

Yes it is interesting.

 

This too is interesting - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations- sometimes things seem to be connected when they aren't.

 

[turkeyfeathers]

Yes it is interesting.

This too is interesting - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations- sometimes things seem to be connected when they aren't.

Huh ????

[Curmudgeon]

Huh ????

 

Sorry if my brain makes leaps that aren't easy to follow. The point is that things we observe - that might on the surface appear to be connected - are not always. Things like: more coyote sign, fewer turkeys. More fishers, fewer turkeys. The interactions of wildlife, habitat and weather are very complicated. That both of these predators help control nest predators makes it even more complicated.

 

The decrease in Rusty Blackbird numbers is just like the decrease in turkeys but more severe. Should we draw similar conclusions on their decline.

 

The increasing range of fishers is very similar to the increasing range of Merlins. Heck, I found a Common Loon skull directly under an active Merlin nest on a ADK island. I could easily draw a conclusion that Merlins - one of our smallest raptors - are killing Common Loons (almost impossible but how do you explain the skull?).

 

We - all of us - become biased by our observations. For instance, I have great Eastern Towhee habitat. I usually have 5-7 singing males on the property. One year, I had none. This was a tragedy. I thought that something terrible had happened on the wintering grounds. The next year I had 5-7 singing males. That lesson taught me a lot about drawing conclusions about short term observations in a small area.