Rut & Pre-Rut Timing

[UpStateRedNeck]

Now I remember last year, browsing the old forums, there were formulas kicking around for when the pre-rut & rut would kick in.  I think it was something like the first full moon, or the second full moon after the fall equinox?  I'm asking because, I have to put in for the time off from work soon and I'd like to try and time it right!  I hunt the foothills of the catskills which is right on the border 4g/4h.  I was tentatively planning on the week of the 8 through the 12th, and then weather pending grabbing a day or two off to make 3 day/4 day weekends of it.

[nyslowhand]

That's Charlie Alshimer's (Deer & Deer Hunting mag.) pet project.

The 2nd full moon after the fall equinox deterimnes when the rut falls blah, blah, blah, ....

He backs his theory up with semi-scientific data, photos, scouting reports, tracking of collared bucks.

Believe he posts this prediction in September, must sell a lot of magazines.

I'm not entirely sold on his theory. Have gotten a majority on my bucks within the same ~7 day timeframe regardless of any predictions.

FYI - 2010 the 2nd full moon after the fall equinox ocurrs on November 18.

Per Alshimer's theory the 2010 rut should be at its peak after Thanksgiving.

Personally I wouldn't schedule any vacations around his guess-timate.

[Doewhacker]

Here read this, its by buckstopshere..

http://www.wellsvilledaily.com/outdoors/x190607679/Rut-prediction-for-2010-deer-season-in-the-Northeast-and-Midwest

This year is supposed to be a "normal" year.

another link...

http://www.prohuntersjournal.com/article/?a=27

Basically from 10/31 to 11/12 is the window to look at.

[WNYBuckHunter]

According to Charles Alsheimer's theory, heres how it works...

The second full moon after the autumnal equinox is the rutting moon. The seek phase should occur for 3 or 4 days on either side of the rutting moon. The Chase phase begins about 3 days after the rutting moon and goes until the breeding phase starts, which is about 7 days after the rutting moon. The breeding phase lasts for @ 14 days. About a week or two after that, the secondary rut can kick in.

http://www.charliealsheimer.com/ca/moon.html

[UpStateRedNeck]

I can't tell you boys how nice it is to ask a question and have it thoroughly answered, gracias!

[nyslowhand]

Please don't tell me you guys do all your planning around these predictions????

Makes for interesting reading and makes you look at the calendar, but it's still a theory ....

I'm still recovering from the news that Pluto is NOT a planet!! Don't traumatize me again!! lol

I've gotten the consensus that most hunters bag their deer during the same timeframe annually.

Yeah, it's according to variables, like the weather, where & how they hunt, food sources, etc.

I'm going to be in a treestand during the entire season, as much as I can.

When they come I'll be there. Not going to exclude the days that are not within the predicted prime-time.

That's me and how I plan on hunting.

[Doewhacker]

Thats how I hunt too nyslowhand, I hunt every minute I can. If you look at your thread, the dates that alot of bucks are killed coincide with the seeking/chasing phase of the rut.

[Geno C]

i would say there are more variables then some of you listed that would push back or put forward those days for pre rut / rut. theres tomany variables to looks at and it seems to be black magic...

i spend as much seat time in my stands to make those type of predictions because to be quite frank, they can be different from zone to zone, county to county. to many variables. spend some time in your stands and make your own assumptions. i would not plan hunts around what others say and any moon phase / dates. Its crap...

you dont know what can happen and when the rut will pop off! spend the time in the woods and hope you are in the right spot at the right time.

thats how i play. i cant plan hunts around "THEORIES"

im not insinuating anyone does this, i dont care... i just think going by theories and predictions is silly. sometimes things are better when experienced FIRST HAND.

[nyslowhand]

Amen!

[UpStateRedNeck]

Of course I do all my planning based on predictions!  On a totally un-related topic, did you know the end of the world is next year?  I heard that somewhere.  Free Punch at my place that day!  It might taste a little bitter though.

On a more serious note, when one is planning to take an entire week off from work, and not just come down with deer flu, best guesses are nice.  I'll probably take Nov 1 through Nov 7, then since the 11th is a legal holiday take that friday too and make a 4 dayer of the next weekend.  I have less time off than usual this year due to honeymoon, else I would not be working at all during last month of October through thanksgiving.

[Doewhacker]

Of course I do all my planning based on predictions!  On a totally un-related topic, did you know the end of the world is next year?  I heard that somewhere.  Free Punch at my place that day!  It might taste a little bitter though.

LOL!!!

I get it, you need to maximize your time off!

[Cabin Fever]

I use to buy into Charlies moon therory. It was a good read anyway. But, since spending a lot of time in woods hunting and comparing my sightings with Charlies predictions, I just don't buy into it anymore.

Maybe spread those vacation days over the course of the first 2 weeks instead of taking a whole week off?

[Geno C]

ive even tried to hunt by that moon phase in the NY State mags, its all bogus... lol ive seen more deer on days the movement was supposed to be "SLOW" its so hit or miss. i really would like to shake the guys hand who publishes this stuff and i sure do hope they are getting paid for it, because it sure is funny... and im a nice guy. i like to see people get paid for there time, usless or not lol.

but seriously the whole predictions / theories  make me lough every time.

and they do predict a end of the world in 2012, your right. the funny part is there are actually people preparing for it. thats even funnier. dont know if its funny or the smart thing. its all inevitable tho... and some things are out of our hands.

[CNYlungbuster]

There are a number of "theories" for planning the rut.  I personally don't put much stock into the moon theory.  I'm more based on the photoperiod "theory", again it is still a "theory", but one that I personally put more belief into due to personal success during this time.  According to the photoperiod line of thought the peak of the rut (chasing, seeking, what ever you want to call it) happens on Nov. 9 every year plus or minus a day depending on leap years.  I personally can't wait untill Halloween rolls around I always seem to have the best luck on Halloween or shortly there after.  I'm not sure whos equation it works better for, (guess it depends on the year).  However thats when I would take my vacation, if i was limited to a small window (Oct. 31-Nov. 14). 

Hope this helps

Good luck this year

CNY

[CNYlungbuster]

but seriously the whole predictions / theories  make me lough every time.

and they do predict a end of the world in 2012, your right. the funny part is there are actually people preparing for it. thats even funnier. dont know if its funny or the smart thing. its all inevitable tho... and some things are out of our hands.

Im preparing too.... gotta fill the freezer with venison lol

CNY

[UpStateRedNeck]

Well the way I see it is if I take that first week, and only work monday, tuesday, and wednesday of the next week (if the weather turns awesome I might just be become terribly sick), I work max 3 out of those prime 14.  Thanks for you input fellas!

[CNYlungbuster]

HAHA coming down with Buck fever are ya lol. 

[MuzzyLoader]

Charlie Alsheimer told me once that the primary breeding date for upsate New York is Nov 11th.  I would always plan my archery hunting around the days preceeding that date when I was working.  Now that I'm retired... I'm in the woods as much as possible - morning, noon, and evening.  Hey - you NEVER know when you may get blessed with a monster.

Happy hunting!

[nyslowhand]

That's interesting, sort of contradicting himself with the moving prime-time date per his published theory per the moons.

In all my years of hunting I've seen it at pretty much that same time year after year, +/-3 to 5 days. Mostly influenced by the weather!

When all factors are in place, they'll do their thing!!! Just be there!

[WNYBuckHunter]

That's interesting, sort of contradicting himself with the moving prime-time date per his published theory per the moons.

In all my years of hunting I've seen it at pretty much that same time year after year, +/-3 to 5 days. Mostly influenced by the weather!

When all factors are in place, they'll do their thing!!! Just be there!

Or maybe he said that before he started on the study, or maybe he never said it to begin with. Oh wait, its on the internet, its got to be true.  ;D

[Geno C]

lol... if its on the internet its is deff true.

:::bites lip and looks away::::

[WNYBuckHunter]

lol... if its on the internet its is deff true.

:::bites lip and looks away::::

[Buckstopshere]

UPSTATE Redneck: I think you got it right. I've had a lot of fun over the years and I think I have it figured out.

My theory is not just opinion, but is based on almost 40 years of fanatically chasing deer and killing a lot of them, observation, writing it down and pouring through all the other rut prognostications so I understand their theories.  Charlie A. says this year the rut is not to happen in NY state until after the bow season, at least according to his calendar. Hmmm. Doesn't do you much good if you are an archer.

My two scents is: the rut Always has three high points and breeding is done in between each of the high points too. But when is that high point? It varies each year. Is there a pattern? Yes.

The last time we had the conjunction of the Autumal Equinox and the Full Moon in September was in 2002. I missed a huge rutting buck that made scrapes as he tended a doe beneath my treestand. I center-punched a red oak tree, as the doe fed under me and was about to blow me in. The date was Nov. 2. Full blown rut.

If you have 10 minutes to burn, here is an amateurish video I put together with my rut prediction for this season. I hope you enjoy it. I tried to put some humor in it.

[Outdoorcountry]

I agree with Charlie but I also agree that the "variables" (most significantly being weather) will determine the "intensity" of the rut.  It only makes sense that after gorging themselves on beans to pack on fat that the deer are too hot to move if the temp is over 45ish deg.  After all, deer have no way of perspiring to cool themselves.

I would NOT want to hunt peak breeding day(s) as the bucks are lying with does.  I would NOT want to hunt the chasing phase as I can't get the bucks to stop because they are running does and grunting....Do I hunt? ABSOLUTLY!!!...All these phases are fascinating to watch.  But if I had to schedule vacation time, I pick cold days during the seeking phase.  I find I can call bucks in with a bleat or a grunt more succesfully during this phase.

[Buckstopshere]

I know it is fashionable to say that deer do not breed when the temperature is over 45 F. but I disagree. First of all, I have seen them chasing does when it is 65 F. with their tongues hanging out. Secondly, they are animals. When they want to breed and the time is right, nothing will stop them. Have you ever bred dogs? Try to keep a bitch in heat and a stud dog apart! Doesn't matter what the temperature, they get it done. And thirdly, I don't know how old you are, but I can remember way back when the moon was full and just before I settled down. It didn't matter if it was in a cold cabin, a hot, sweaty beach,...

When the rut is on...it's on. These are wild animals and don't come up with the excuses like I have a headache or...I can't dear, it's just too hot.  ;D