phillifan22

Weather for Opening Day STier Gun 2018

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Since I’m likely the only meteorologist on this forum, I’m gonna do this thread with updates every day or two. We probably won’t know for certain until next Wed or Thu (11/14-11/15) because of the active pattern we are in.

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1 hour ago, phillifan22 said:

 

Since I’m likely the only meteorologist on this forum, I’m gonna do this thread with updates every day or two. We probably won’t know for certain until next Wed or Thu (11/14-11/15) because of the active pattern we are in.

 

So you are telling us to basically look out the window on the 17th? lol

Edited by Culvercreek hunt club
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"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote." -- Benjamin Franklin

"The trouble with Socialism is, sooner or later you run out of other people's money." - Margaret Thatcher

"When you subsidize poverty and failure, you get more of both.." - James Dale Davidson, National Taxpayers Union

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I envy you. The only job in the world besides being a baseball hitter where you can go 3/10 and keep your job!


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"The sportsman lives his life vicariously. For he secretly yearns to have lived before, in a simpler time. A time when his love for the land, water, fish and wildlife would be more than just part of his life. It would be his state of mind."

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Update - 11/7 for 11/17.

Because we are 10 days out and in an active pattern, there is significant model uncertainty for next Saturday. The models begin to disagree starting next Tuesday, in fact, with a few models having 6-12” of snow for CNY, Capital Region, Catskills, and Adirondacks. Other models have this as an only rain event. So that will be something to watch!

After that, most models are in agreement on some sort of trough/low pressure system moving over NY Friday and Saturday. Some models have this system with temps in the 20s/30s, other models have it in the 40s. All models have some type of precip (rain or snow), cloudy skies, and light to moderate W/NW winds.
So overall, it does look active/wet for opening day, but there is so much model variability that when I look at the models tomorrow they could have clear skies and ridging/high pressure. Stay tuned.

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I envy you. The only job in the world besides being a baseball hitter where you can go 3/10 and keep your job!


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I get that all the time when I tell people what I do! But surprisingly, if you are wrong over 50% of the time you get canned


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No need, I already answered this in the Live from the woods forum....I'll go into a little more detail here

 

28 degrees with temps remaining steady throughout the day. Overcast with occasional snow showers. Steady WNW wind at 3 MPH with 1.5" of snow on the ground from overnight. 

This weather will encompass the entire southern zone and remain through Sunday at Sunset. I can't speculate any farther out at this time. 

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1 hour ago, Culvercreek hunt club said:

So you are gelignite us to basically look out the window on the 17th? lol

Somebody doesn't work for the state.

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'08 Bowtech Commander

GoldTip Hunter Expedition's w/ Rage 2 Blades

Remington 700 .308

Mossberg 500 Pump

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So rain or snow, or potentially clear skies. Also temps could be anywhere from 20-40 possibly even warmer...... Got it

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21 hours ago, phillifan22 said:

Update - 11/7 for 11/17.

Because we are 10 days out and in an active pattern, there is significant model uncertainty for next Saturday. The models begin to disagree starting next Tuesday, in fact, with a few models having 6-12” of snow for CNY, Capital Region, Catskills, and Adirondacks. Other models have this as an only rain event. So that will be something to watch!

After that, most models are in agreement on some sort of trough/low pressure system moving over NY Friday and Saturday. Some models have this system with temps in the 20s/30s, other models have it in the 40s. All models have some type of precip (rain or snow), cloudy skies, and light to moderate W/NW winds.
So overall, it does look active/wet for opening day, but there is so much model variability that when I look at the models tomorrow they could have clear skies and ridging/high pressure. Stay tuned.

Keep it going @phillifan22! Pretty cool to have a meteorologist "on staff" so to speak. Your updates are mucho appreciated!

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Update - 11/12 for 11/17

 

I didn't post an update again last week because the forecast hadn't changed much, but I figured with opening day only being 5 days away I should send another update. So, for the final 5 days of bow, we have a nice day today (Mon), a coastal storm resulting in gross mixed precip (starting as snow changing to rain) on Tuesday, windy and cold across NY with lake effect snow E/SE of the lakes Wednesday, before a beautiful calm and sunny (but cold) day on Thursday. Friday another coastal storm/low pressure system will lead to more gross snow and mixed precip and gusty winds across NY. 

 

This leads us into Saturday, where the models are actually in decent agreement, but things can still change. Generally, things will be calming down as the low pressure system from Friday exits the area, leading to rising/increasing pressure. Temps will start out in the upper 20s/low 30s, warming into the upper 30s by mid-day. Wind direction looks to generally be out of the W/WSW throughout the day. Wind speed around 10-12mph for the morning, weakening to 5-10mph for mid-day, afternoon, and evening. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with some sun at times. Also, there will be a chance for some light/weak lake effect snow (or even rain) showers throughout the day in the usual areas (I'll be able to give more specific timing/location details on this as we get closer to Saturday).

Stay tuned for more updates! Hope we see some action in the harvest and live woods threads during the last week of bow!

 

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On 11/7/2018 at 11:37 AM, Biz-R-OWorld said:

I envy you. The only job in the world besides being a baseball hitter where you can go 3/10 and keep your job!


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That’s one thing I liked about the FD, we’re undefeated, no fire is still burning !

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Please no rain...Please no rain....PLEASE NO RAIN....Doing my no rain dance now....or is that being racist? 

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That’s one thing I liked about the FD, we’re undefeated, no fire is still burning !


Go work in Cali! Lol


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"The sportsman lives his life vicariously. For he secretly yearns to have lived before, in a simpler time. A time when his love for the land, water, fish and wildlife would be more than just part of his life. It would be his state of mind."

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Update - 11/14 for 11/17

Alrighty, we have lake effect winding down today, giving some places some nice fresh snow for hunting today and tomorrow. The next system will be moving into NY Thursday evening, moving out Friday night. This system is very tricky due to models being all over the place with precip-type, however, it currently looks like most of WNY, CNY,  S Tier, Catskills, and even the Capital Region will get several inches of snow Thursday night into Friday. Totals will likely be around 4-7", but up to 10" is possible. Some models only have 2-3" of snow,  with more of it falling as sleet or freezing rain. The issue for a lot of places will be that the snow could turn to rain by mid-day Friday, compacting all the fresh snow.

So, with the system moving out Friday night, opening day will be much calmer with pressure rising. Most of the SZ will have a few to several inches of fresh fluffy or compacted snow on the ground already. Temps will likely start out in the mid-upper 20s or low 30s, becoming upper 30s or low 40s by mid-day, and back into the mid-30s by sunset. Winds are expected to generally be out of the W/SW across the state throughout the day. Wind speed will start out higher in the early morning (10-15mph),  but gradually drop to 5-10mph by mid-day and for the afternoon hunt. Skies will generally  be partly to mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sun. There is a chance of lake effect rain or snow showers E of Lake Ontario across the Tug, with the threat possibly drifting down across Oneida/Madison counties during the afternoon. There is also that threat of lake effect rain or snow showers E/SE of Lake Erie extending into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region throughout the day.

I hope to send out more updates tomorrow or Friday, but it looks like a decent opening day!

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I like yours better than what I am seeing on Weather.com for my camp. They are 2-6" today with 1-3" tomorrow morning and 6-12" Thursday night. That is almost "can't get into camp" totals for me. 1.25 miles on a constant uphill  logging road that isn't maintained or plowed. 


"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote." -- Benjamin Franklin

"The trouble with Socialism is, sooner or later you run out of other people's money." - Margaret Thatcher

"When you subsidize poverty and failure, you get more of both.." - James Dale Davidson, National Taxpayers Union

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This is a forecast I can get behind!  Going to take one last poke with the crossbow after I get my daughter on the bus Friday morning.


'08 Bowtech Commander

GoldTip Hunter Expedition's w/ Rage 2 Blades

Remington 700 .308

Mossberg 500 Pump

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