knehrke

I've had this conversation with nearly all of my friends, who are not necessarily the same group that I used to pal around with when I was younger than my current 54 years. It's a tough pill to swallow. You spend countless hours developing bonds when you're young and have the time (but usually not the money lol), then those hours gradually become minutes, often over social media rather than in person or in the field. I own a boat with a buddy of mine; he didn't even set foot on it this summer. It's just life, I guess. And the dirty secret is that you will never replace all those buds from your early years. It just gets harder to develop deep friendships as you get older, because we're all so busy and committed and maybe a little bit dead inside lol. So value what you have. You may go years without interacting appreciably with one of your old friends, then suddenly they become a part of your life again. Or so we hope.

I appreciate a healthy discussion, but the fearmongering is irresponsible. Unfortunately, that's the way of the world on open discussion forums. Meliora.

I just had a buddy return through there after hunting Alabama, and he said it was awesome looking country. NYS taxes and government in general is a PITA to deal with, but I love the turn of the seasons, and this state's outdoor opportunities take a back seat to nowhere, with a special place for the ADK in my heart. I just can't see leaving behind the life that I've built here, but I'm a homebody anyway. It sounds like you have a ready made toe in the water way to experience TN before making the jump.

Shoot me the interview; I'll take a look. Here's what I know about the furin cleavage site: There's been lots of chatter about the polybase insertion PRRAR (this is a sequence of five amino acids that is very rich in "R" or Arginine, a positively charged base) at the S1/S2 cleavage site, which is different from the closest related coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV, and can be cleaved by furin. This route of entry provides a selective advantage and may enhance transmission. However, the site is not an optimal furin cleavage site - which, if it were an engineered variant, would almost certainly have been used as proof-of-principle. Also, the site is present in other more distal but related coronaviruses (as the funded research undoubtedly used as premise for their approach). Finally, the "UK" variant, which arose in humans, has an adjacent mutation in a proximal region to the polybase insertion, which makes it a better substrate for furin cleavage, demonstrating how viral evolution continues toward a more transmissible variant. All of these lend me to believe that this occurred through a natural route. But you are correct, there were some raised eyebrows when this was first noted. Which have since descended as more folks have gotten into the game. There are a fair number of papers now in the literature on this topic. As for gut feelings, I try to avoid those when assessing anything of importance (or whenever there are greasy hamburgers in the vicinity). My gut lies to me all the time. It told me 25 years ago that there was no way I was getting a second date with my wife lol. I try to keep an open mind and acknowledge that there could be a laboratory origin, and that proof of such may never be available. The current theories of interspecies transmission are the most plausible, but still don't check all of the boxes IMHO. But I've yet to see a convincing counter theory.

98% true? I respectfully disagree. If you'd like to talk about biosafety measures surrounding the use of viruses in research, I am pleased to engage. But please source your information appropriately. Every theory that I've seen so far claiming to "prove" that this virus was developed in a lab has been itself fairly easy to debunk. Some of these utilize sophisticated analyses, and it may be difficult for the layperson to establish their rigor...and I get that it's hard to know who to trust in those situations. You feel like so-called experts have a vested interest in maintaining the narrative, right? Except in most cases they don't. They're just doing their job. And thus far, there's been nothing conclusive, or even incriminating that's been adopted as consensus through any peer-reviewed channel. This has been established up and down the chain. Never say never, but the vast preponderance of actual evidence doesn't support your claim.

The wife is headed on a business trip to Florida and wants me to join her for a long weekend. Not sure yet if I can get away, but I got a guy we did the bayou with down south of New Orleans back in December that works out of Florida most of the year. I wouldn't mind some snook and trout fishing.

Test yourself a couple days in a row. Those at-home tests can be unreliable, and there are some knock offs making the circuit. Regardless, feel better. Go Bills!

I also lean conservative and Republican, in most things. This is rare I feel in an academic, and I've had a tough time holding firm to the middle through this pandemic. The extremes (on both sides) make me reconsider whether I want to be associated with either in any way, even as I ultimately agree with some of their conclusions. But that's neither her nor there. So, I don't want to position myself as a "know it all" on this forum - I'm pleased to respond to a pm, in as much as I have the time - so I'm going to answer Northcountryman and Rob, then get back to work. Quick one first: we may see worse variants emerging, but generally the opposite is the trend. Easier to catch, but not as hard on you. That's how in my understanding the Spanish Flu went, and hopefully this will follow the same route. It's good to be cautiously optimistic, while remaining vigilant. RNA viruses like Coronavirus mutate faster than DNA viruses, with mutation frequency determined by both viral and host processes (such as cytidine/adenine deaminases). Mutations occur at the level of nucleic acid processing rather than translation, where errors would not lead to heritable transmission. These processes include things like proofreading and fidelity of the enzymes that process the nucleic acid. Asymptomatic carriers can pass on the virus - with the caveat that asymptomatic may simply be presymptomatic. Also, please be aware that cycle threshold (Ct) values from PCR tests are not direct measures of viral load and are subject to error, hence false positives can occur easily when considering that the Ct based on CDC guidelines is 40 cycles - that means the end product is 2 to the 40th power, or 40 doublings of what you've started with. But better to have false positives than false negatives. Masks can help slow droplet spread, but are certainly not an answer on their own. They are likely most valuable in crowded situations. And they can help prevent viral spread from presymptomatic carriers. The more viral replication, the greater the chance of mutation, vaxed or unvaxed - but the ultimate drivers of mutagenesis within individual populations are not completely understood. Vaccinations prime your immune system to recognize an antigen on the stalk of the protein that the virus uses to enter your cells. Hopefully, that allows you to respond more quickly to encounters, or to neutralize some of the most detrimental consequences. When the stalk region is mutated, the virus can evade the vaccine. Ultimately, it's a game of odds, and vaccination alone is just one piece of the puzzle. KK. That went longer than I wanted. Back to reviewing applicants.

You are absolutely correct, with only a year under our belt, we don't know the long term effects of vaccination. We also don't know the long term effects of COVID, although it's looking like there are some significant concerns emerging. I sincerely hope that it's more like flu than scarlet fever. And so we need to weigh these potentials ourselves to make the right choice for us. Safe and effective is a relative term. Crossing the street is both safe and effective - at least according to the chicken who wanted to get to the other side. And yet folks get hit by cars every day. As for prevention, the odds are ever in your favor. More so for severe disease, but there's still a 6-7 fold reduced rate of transmission with vaccination. It would have been nice if this turned out to be a forever vaccine, but frankly, at the start of the pandemic I was betting that we wouldn't even be able to develop an effective vaccine at all, given that this is a coronavirus. I was happy to have been wrong.

Quick answer - and I want to acknowledge that education doesn't necessarily make somebody smart - I personally opted to be vaccinated, and had no qualms when my daughter chose likewise. I personally feel that the benefits outweighed the risks, particular at the beginning of this pandemic. As the disease evolves, like many viruses, toward an endemic, less virulent strain, my opinion may change, but for now, I do feel that the benefits still outweigh the risks, particular with a year of vaccines under our belts. And yes, I absolutely think that mandates, at this point in time, are overkill. I could envision a situation where I would support mandates, but we are far from that - and I think that how you weigh civil liberties against a public health crisis is a deeply personal choice. Conversation helps. Trying to understand other folks' opinions helps. Not having to win an argument or demonize your opponent helps. Okay, having finished putting the handle on a new flippin' stick that I'm building, I'm off to go ice fishing, before the storm craps all over us.

Professor of Medicine in the Nephrology Division at the University of Rochester Medical Center, PhD in Biochemistry, 20+ years of experience in the field of molecular biology, genetics, and genetic engineering, 62 peer-reviewed publications in decent journals (not Nature, Science, or Cell, but my h-index is ~39, which suggests that my work has had a decent impact on the fields I work in), bunch of other reviews, editorials and whatnot, review grants extensively for NIH, NSF, foundations...postdoc'd 3 years for Larry Tabak, who's now Director of NIH (how's that for name-dropping lol?). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=nehrke k AND rochester&sort=date&ac=yes https://www.nehrkelab.com/ I'm never going to offer a "clinical" opinion, since in the interest of full transparency I am not an MD. But I interact on a daily basis with some of the top docs at URMC, and I can often offer an informed opinion - which like all opinions, can be mistaken. I take ownership of my mistakes and believe strongly that candid dialog, an open mind, and anti-demagoguery is the only way to get out of this mess.

See, that's where you lose me - saying "it's obviously not about health". I think that most health care professionals would argue that it absolutely is about health. I won't argue logistics with you, because I appreciate that won't get me anywhere. But there's a very simple argument to be made. I don't know a doctor or prof who hasn't raced to have their kids vaccinated as soon as it was available. Why would they do that for their loved ones, considering that they are both informed and that a personal decision about your kids doesn't push any agenda - if they didn't believe that the jab protects against disease? Yeah, there's bound to be a few who think otherwise, or who argue against vaccination on civil grounds, and good for them, but if most of the folks who really understand the underlying risks/rewards are rushing to vaccinate their kids, I'm fairly confident that expert consensus is that there are health benefits. If you think that your opinion is better informed that folks who have studied this stuff for decades, then good for you. Who am I to say otherwise? But saying, "it's obviously not about health" dismisses the educated decisions that others have made independently. Now, if you were to say that it's not ONLY about heath, I can agree with you. Money, power, politics, I'm sure they all play a role. But so does health. And I'm fairly certain that's not easily refuted.

Yes, sir. I am agreeing with you lol. I oppose mandates. I can see how you might read what I wrote differently, so I will make it clear - folks arguing against vaccination on "scientific" grounds get zero support from me. Facts are facts are facts. Folks arguing vaccination on civil liberties grounds get my full support. Even if I think they're making a stupid decision, it is in the end their decision to make, since it's their body. Our history here in America of forced vaccinations is unsavory at best - this is stuff I've taught in our bioethics class - and making them second class citizens is only going to provoke exactly the opposite response as we want. If we don't force vaccinations for other diseases that are arguable much more deadly, then why COVID? Europe is a complete sh!t show right now with their mandates. I hope that folks on this side of the ocean listen to reason.

I hear that, but don't really see it in day-to-day life. It's not immediately apparent who's vaxed and who's not, right? So these sort of attitudes are more like opinions, and tough to apply individually. The President can say whatever he wants, I honestly don't listen much to politicians in general. I do think that the weight of increased patients on providers is taking a mental toll on health care professionals, and it's difficult for them to remain totally unbiased in the face of this surge, but I haven't heard anyone lash out at unvaccinated folks, either. Any more than they do overweight smokers who don't exercise and eat Mickie D's every day. We all take chances with our health, and the best way to live a long healthy life is to "choose your parents wisely", as the old genetics joke goes. But day in and day out it can wear down on even the most caring physicians. Still, I haven't seen anyone vilified personally for their choice. As with many things, I suspect that the media response leads to an exaggerated perception of what's happening.

Or, it's like acknowledging that women - in aggregate - aren't as physically strong as men. Some women are stronger than some men. Most women aren't. We make allowances on the job, on a case by case basis. No shame, right? No discrimination. Just the facts. And unvaccinated are more likely to suffer detrimental consequences of COVID. It doesn't make them second class citizens. And some unvaccinated folks have done more to protect their health than vaccinated folks, they just get unlucky and end up sick. Who can say why? Even so, they should acknowledge the potential consequences of their choice, free as IMHO they should be to make it.

Quick response: I think I may have mentioned this earlier, and my numbers are likely pre-omicron, but at one point the average age of vaxed patients at Strong was ~72, most with underlying co-morbidities, while unvaxed was ~53 and mixed healthy/underlying. That brought it home for me, but everybody needs to make up their own mind. Just please don't kill the messenger lol! I wish we knew better why it picks on some folks so hard. Million dollar question.

BPS, I'm glad to hear that you have been discharged; best of luck with recovery. We are seeing both vaxed and unvaxed in the hospital, but this isn't surprising given the much higher percentage of vaxed in the population. Vaccination appears to provide anywhere from 6-15 fold protection, depending on where you get your stats. Omicron is certainly less deadly, but everybody and their brother is getting it, and so it becomes a numbers game. Staff shortages are killing us though. Good luck moving forward. Everybody else, stay healthy!

Regardless of where you fall in the spectrum, society's intense focus over the past year on COVID can create a sense of unease when you realize that it's come home to roost. A bit of empathy goes a long way toward retaining your human being card. Don, I hope and anticipate that you and your family will fare fine. If you experience complications though, do not hesitate to seek medical guidance. It's tough not to worry about vulnerable folks, particularly unborn babies, but the odds are in your favor. Hang tight!

I cut quite a few trails, some on uneven ground, and keep some fields mowed, so I opted to go with a big dog: Kunz Acrease - the tow-behind model comes with various engine options, from 20-26 hp, including Kawasaki, Kohler, etc..and cut widths from 44-60". It's a heavy duty beast that doesn't appear to require more than basic maintenance. I've had to replace a belt over the past five years. The cut is amazing with the rough cut model, and I assume the finishing mower would be even better, but who here needs that lol? I want to be able to run over 3" saplings and laugh at exposed rocks in the fields. It's made in the US, too. The drawback: price. Last I looked it was ~4.5K. They show up used very infrequently.

It seems like current guidance is that if you think you might have it, you probably do. Since we're all smart enough to stay at home so long as we're symptomatic, the doctors and/or state don't need to be involved unless you hit a snag, such as trouble breathing. This means that the actual number of infections is likely to be much higher than is being reported, but honestly what does it matter if it's limited to mild disease? The biggest issue IMHO right now is the staffing shortages at local hospitals due to employees coming down with some crud, be it COVID, or flu, or RSV. I'm truly hoping that this round exemplifies for some of the doubters that nobody's making stuff up - folks are working hard to get us out from under the umbrella of COVID, and when the situation improves, the numbers will reflect it. I just feel bad for all the health care workers who lost their jobs to the mandate, when it likely wasn't called for or necessary, and is contributing to the current shortages. Just my 2 cents. Rob - feel better. If you're going to get it, now seems like a great time since we're between seasons. I've been licking doorknobs, but thus far can't catch a break lol...

I love my cameras, both old school and cell both, but they don't impact my actual hunting experience much at all. It's instructive for me to note how little deer will tolerate intrusion, and to have pictorial evidence of such, or to watch the progression of the season over time while reviewing photos, but I have never seen a buck on camera, made a move, and had an encounter - although I did bump a nice ten to a neighbor trying once lol. There's a huge difference between getting a buck to pose (which works once until they're wise to cameras) and getting them into range for a clean shot. So, I'm in favor of retaining my cameras. I love the analogy to fish finders! And I appreciate that some may consider them an unfair advantage but IMHO that's not a realistic fear. Jeremy K makes a great point that cameras may provide cause to let more young bucks walk, if you have a photo of a true stud, too.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics lol. You know that red-headed folks get sunburned more easily, too? Obviously the sun is a man-made construct designed to inflict damage on gingers. Just kidding! But you get it - susceptibility occurs due to natural variation, and you give us gene jockeys more credit than we deserve thinking that we could hijack a virus that differentially impact folks selectively. We can only wish we knew the factors that regulate disease severity. That's the golden ticket of individualized medicine. Don't ask, don't tell. Especially on truly divisive issues like Xbows, AR, and euronymphing... Glad to hear you're feeling better, First-light. We had dinner last night at Embers in Livonia (highly recommended), and the place was dead; maybe COVID-related, maybe not, but the number of daily cases has become staggering. Good thing omicron causes mainly mild disease, because it seems like everyone is catching it now.

Okay, got to step in here. You will not test positive for COVID if you have the common cold. Absolutely, 100% untrue. I'm assuming you knew that any are just throwing fuel on the fire. Nice play lol. And for all of those who think that keeping a pandemic going somehow benefits financially, that just doesn't make sense. There are so many big leaguers losing money hand over fist that if $$ were the primer motivator, it would have been over 18 months ago. Now, if you want to talk about the reins of power, mandates, etc..that's a different story lol.

Best wishes for a fast recovery! Folks are dropping like flies, vaccinated and unvaccinated, though the later faster of course. Still, it doesn't appear that omicron generally causes severe disease...but with so many hitting the floor, there's going to be an increase, regardless. Just a numbers game. What we are most concerned with now is the number of staff who are calling in sick, when they're needed most (and yes, I appreciate the irony of firing unvaccinated staff back in September - I was dead set against it, as I am mandates). And while I hope that omicron provides natural immunity for those who contract it, there is no guarantee how broad or persistent it may be. Nobody in the world can predict with certainty how this will shake out in a year or two. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst I guess. Be smart, stay safe, take care of each other, and take care of yourself. Obesity is among the biggest factors that contribute to disease severity (besides age, which we can't do anything about). It's always a great time to start getting in better shape; maybe now more than ever. Be well.

I'm less concerned about the ongoing differences of opinion than I am that the sides have stopped listening to each other. There is value in keeping an open mind and not trying to dismiss your opponent's argument before even considering it. I hear these calls for civil war, and I'm guessing that the callers haven't a clue as to what that would entail. No matter what folks claim, we live in a free country. This thread is proof of that. I think that we've been in a good place for so long, that we've forgotten how bad things can get. Forget history, doomed to repeat it and all. One of our adjacent landowners in an old German woman. She lived through WWII, and she tells me, "Cleave to the middle, loudly and firmly. I've seen what happens when you let the extremists have their way". So this is me, standing firm in the middle. Remember, we have more in common than not. Okay, jumping off the pulpit to go shoot some deer - there's snow on the ground in WNY!!