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About knehrke

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  1. "We're going substantially down, not up" and "One day, like a miracle, it will disappear" Who should be investigated? Blame enough to go around, for sure. Lots of misinformation and failed understanding of the severity. We had an opportunity to learn from China and Italy. We did not learn. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it...
  2. Unfortunately, the current need level in NYC will persist well into the local need level, given that the average intubated patient requires support for at least a week, NYC shows no signs of slowing down, and WNY is entering the exponential phase. The governor's promise to pay for any ventilators he takes doesn't help when that local need emerges. If projections are correct, we're just deciding where resources will end up. And as usual, NYC wins. I get that he needs to address the most pressing current need, but that won't help us when we're facing the gun. Any way you look at it, it's bad news.
  3. My wife and I both run large research laboratories at URMC. The research enterprise has been completely shuttered for two weeks now, and will be for the foreseeable future. Many of the research staff, including principle investigators, have volunteered to do whatever needs to be done on the hospital side when we hit the apex. Until then, they're not in the house - they're at home. The disruption is going to cause an disproportionate gap in productivity, since many projects have longitudinal components that can be years in the making. The University itself is going to experience a financial crisis the likes of which I can't even imagine. And yet nobody is complaining and nobody is touting the rules. Not bad for a bunch of liberal academics lol.
  4. IMHO, the issue is the time lag between all these things we're hearing about. We initiate social distancing, but it will take ten days to see an effect because the folks who were infected by asymptomatic COVID+ carriers first have to feel sick, see a doctor, get a test done, and only then, ten days later, will they show up on the charts. The same goes for ventilators. People are just now being identified as COVID+. These people are in the early stages. The progression of the disease suggests that the need for ventilators may be predominantly a late stage phenomenon. I'm not a numbers guy, either, but I know that you don't want to shave too close on what you need for saving lives. I bet we're going to need more than we have. Hopefully it won't be much more, because I don't know where we're going to get them. Although I'm hearing anecdotally that if you end up on a ventilator, your chances of recovery are greatly reduced - which is really scary. So, not trying to be morbid, but there could be significant turnover of machines.
  5. Three main factors contribute to mortality rates: testing - more tests find more of the mild cases and dilute the number, population makeup - old, diabetic, male smokers are at greatest risk, and health care - as ICUs are overwhelmed, mortality increases as would be expected. At this point in time, America looks more likely to go the way of Italy than of South Korea
  6. This is a crazy evolving topic - normally, I'd say you have no worries, but with the wave of overreactions, particularly since it's a day late and a dollar short to do anything about it, I'm not sure I'd leave the country. Chances are, your daughter's event will be cancelled anyway, if it's like everything else.
  7. It's way beyond politics now. Either we come together to fight, or we lose to a damn virus. There is no politics when it comes to truth or die. Unfortunately, we need to have nearly 100% buy-in to have a fighting chance. And there's too many Americans who think that they "know better".
  8. Nothing is real unless you have firsthand experience of it, everything is a conspiracy by the Democrats...I don't even know what to say. Did the Dems recruit the Chinese in Wuhan late last year as a plot against Trump? Hate to say it, but the Chinese response to this and their ability to contain the virus - after the original snafu - is because when they are told to do something, everyone complies. America's independence is going to work against us moving forward. We are a society where individual values rule over public interests. Which is usually great, but it's going to punch us in the face on COVID-19.
  9. knehrke

    REI store

    Every once in a while, REI will have a BOGO on Darn Tough socks. Until you've worn their Hunter's over-the-calf heavyweight boot sock, you ain't living. Under a pair of Mucks, you can sit in a stand or on the ice all day long. The forever guarantee makes the price hurt a little bit less lol. I've actually sent them socks back and had a new pair mailed to me within a week. That's what makes the BOGO great. I bought all of my hunting buddies who helped me move stands this winter a pair. And told them to watch out, they're addictive. Also, REI online has used gear, from well-worn to almost new. It's worth checking out if you want to save some de niro and you're not hung up on having brand new, out-of-the-box shiny all the time.
  10. Can I get a refund on the three minutes it took me to parse through this thread?
  11. Saw lots of chasing over the past couple of days, as well as a big guy tending a doe on a field edge (in 8A). It is tough to say the rut isn't happening based on one set of buddy was 300 yards away from the circus, but didn't see a deer all morning. If the doe have disappeared from the fields, then they're hiding from the bucks and it's game on. That means now.
  12. Just like in every sport, there's going to be athletes who have better ability. Target acquisition is my big hurdle. I can shoot the nads off a flea, given enough time, but I practice form with an eye on minimizing time to delivery, because that is where I know that I am weak. Identify your personal weaknesses, then work on them. You will be a better hunter, even if it doesn't show on the range. If I had to choose, I'd agree that 1" groups per 10 yards is a decent shot - but is only a starting point toward being good in the field.
  13. We have a boat on the big pond and two parcels of land...and I'd much rather see a newbie land a fish or shoot a deer than pull the trigger myself. I still love to hunt and fish, it's just that numbers mean nothing to me anymore. I will take one buck a year, and it's got to be a dandy. Size still counts. But I keep track of all the deer I see so that when my friends hunt, I can put them in the right place. They can shoot whatever they want, so long as it's not a doe during the last two weeks of bow season when the rut is hot. Kids can shoot whatever they want, whenever. It's more important to keep them pumped then to worry about the rut. I'm 52 years old, and I guess the short answer is no, numbers haven't mattered to me in a decade or more.
  14. You must make more money than me lol. $53 after six weeks of shooting half a dozen arrows a couple times a week on a brand new set up seems over the top IMHO. That'd make for a heck of a yearly bill. I don't know the owner, and I'd never direct a personal comment at someone on a forum like this. I was simply clarifying the original post and posting my opinion on the business's customer service policy. If he truly is selling the business, maybe he figured it doesn't matter anymore.
  15. I do know this guy personally, and you are correct that he put the post on here specifically to complain about Creekwood archery in Hilton. And to make others aware of potential issues there. His post was cut and pasted from Legacy's thread on the Lake Ontario United site, where he goes by Jeffi. He is a frequent contributor to LOU - hence the references to past posts. He is a straight up good sportsman. And his is not he only story I've heard regarding service at that shop, or lack thereof. But from my understanding, the shop is going to close soon anyway; in fact, I was surprised it's still in business. As for this potentially being his fault: it is possible. But not likely. Brand new setup with less than 100 arrows through it. Business integrity demands at the very least discussing the issue and compromising on a solution, not simply dictated a price as if they have no responsibility. The bow already had to go back once because the peep sight was not installed correctly the first time. On the other hand, I had service done at Bullzeye down in Bloomfield, and they told me if anything goes South or needs adjusted, bring it back. Shout out to great service.