The_Real_TCIII

They showed me does and small bucks. I do not regret not stinking up my area for a brief hunt on 10/8

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1007914455/as-the-pandemic-recedes-millions-of-workers-are-saying-i-quit The Great Resignation. Its not all bad, employers are needing to step up to retain good people

Dont exaggerate. Your grocery bills are only higher if you buy beef, poultry, or fish

Its absurd to think that a company would pass that along to their consumers. -Jen Psaki

School forced my daughter to get vaxxed, awesome. Im beyond fed up with this bullshit.

As long as they wear masks I'm good with it

My dad loved the Mets. I remember him picking me up at Cub Scouts with the game on the radio and telling me that Strawberry was playing his first game

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story October 8, 2021 By David Leonhardt Good morning. When we treat Covid as a simple morality play, we can end up making bad predictions. University of Florida football fans at the Alabama game last month.Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press The September swoon In the final weeks of this summer, with Covid-19 cases soaring and the rituals of autumn about to resume, many people assumed that the pandemic was on the verge of getting even worse. Children were returning to classrooms five days a week. Broadway was reopening, and movie fans were heading to theaters again. In football stadiums across the country, fans were crowding together, usually unmasked, to cheer, sing and drink. Given all of this — and the Delta variant — public discussion had a decidedly grim tone as the summer wound down. “It may only get worse,” read a Politico headline. “The new school year is already a disaster,” Business Insider reported. The Washington Post cited an estimate that daily caseloads in the U.S. could reach 300,000 in August, higher than ever before. An expert quoted in The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggested the number could be higher yet. In The New York Times, an epidemiologist predicted that cases would rise in September because children were going back to school. And what actually happened? Cases plunged. Chart shows the 7-day daily average.The New York Times The best measure of U.S. cases (a seven-day average, adjusted for holiday anomalies) peaked around 166,000 on Sept. 1 — the very day that seemed to augur a new surge. The number of new daily cases has since fallen almost 40 percent. Hospitalizations are down about 30 percent. Deaths, which typically change direction a few weeks after cases, have declined 13 percent since Sept. 20. To be fair, forecasting a pandemic is inherently difficult. Virtually all of us, expert and not, have at times been surprised by Covid and incorrect about what was likely to happen next. It’s unavoidable. But there is a pattern to some of the recent mistakes, and understanding it can help us avoid repeating them. Clutch chokers Let’s start by recalling a near-universal human trait: People are attracted to stories with heroes and villains. In these stories, the character flaws of the villains bring them down, allowing the decency of the heroes to triumph. The stories create a clear relationship between cause and effect. They make sense. Books, television shows and movies are full of such stories. But for the purposes of understanding Covid, another form of mass entertainment — sports — is more useful. Unlike novels or movies, sporting events involve true uncertainty. They are not part of a fictional world, with an author’s predetermined ending. And as is the case with more important subjects, like a pandemic, sports are subject to a lot of predictions. For these reasons, social scientists, including Nobel laureates, sometimes study sports to learn lessons about the human mind. If you turn on almost any sporting event, you will hear tales of heroes and villains. Sports broadcasters often use moralistic language — with concepts like “clutch” and “choke” — to explain outcomes. The broadcasters turn games into “referenda on character,” as Joe Sheehan, who writes an excellent baseball newsletter, has put it. The athletes with strong character win, and the weak lose. But anybody who watches sports for long enough will notice that these morality plays do not age well. Many athletes or coaches whom broadcasters long described as chokers (Clayton Kershaw, Andy Reid, Phil Mickelson, Alex Rodriguez, John Elway, Jana Novotná, Hakeem Olajuwon, Dan Jansen and many more) eventually won championships with clutch performances. They did not have character flaws that prevented them from winning. They had been unlucky, or they had run into better competition. Until they didn’t. The real world often does not lend itself to moralistic fables. A security guard at Walter Kerr Theater in New York City.Mark Sommerfeld for The New York Times Vaccines and humility In the case of Covid, the fable we tell ourselves is that our day-to-day behavior dictates the course of the pandemic. When we are good — by staying socially distant and wearing our masks — cases are supposed to fall. When we are bad — by eating in restaurants, hanging out with friends and going to a theater or football game — cases are supposed to rise. The idea is especially alluring to anybody making an effort to be careful and feeling frustrated that so many other Americans seem blasé. After all, the Covid fable does have an some truth to it. Social distancing and masking do reduce the spread of the virus. They just are not as powerful as people often imagine. The main determinants of Covid’s spread (other than vaccines, which are extremely effective) remain mysterious. Some activities that seem dangerous, like in-person school or crowded outdoor gatherings, may not always be. As unsatisfying as it is, we do not know why cases have recently plunged. The decline is consistent with the fact that Covid surges often last for about two months before receding, but that’s merely a description of the data, not a causal explanation. “We still are really in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, why they do what they do,” Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, has told me. In coming weeks and months, it is possible that the virus will surge again, maybe because of a new variant or because vaccine immunity will wane. It is also possible that the population has built up enough immunity — from both vaccines and previous infections — that Delta will have been the last major wave. We don’t know, and we do not have to pretend otherwise. We do not have to treat Covid as a facile referendum on virtue. When caseloads are high, it makes sense to take precautions, even if we can’t be sure how much they matter. When caseloads are lower, it makes sense to take fewer, because almost every precaution has a cost. Other than that, the best we can do is get vaccinated and, as Osterholm says, stay humble. Virus developments: The school year has been reassuring so far. Here’s an in-depth look. Children 5 to 11 could begin receiving Pfizer shots next month. San Francisco will ease indoor mask requirements for vaccinated people. How to use rapid at-home Covid tests (if you can find them): a guide from Tara Parker-Pope.

Arozarena is a MENACE! Still haunts my dreams from last year

Id like it better if the Yankees didnt always send three guys up trying to hit a two run homer. They did win a few of them late with small ball though. I love the DH. IMO the Cards should have pinch hit for Wainright the other night, I think it was in the 5th with a runner on?

I got dressed, walked out to the truck and thought better of it. 60° and a not great wind. Im trying to be patient, theres a lot of season left. I dont see decent weather to hunt in the forecast, what a crazy October Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

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The three batters per pitcher rule is a gift to all of us Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Ive always despised him. He grinds games to a crawl and is an rabid animal rights activist Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Thats a happy by-product Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

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Going back down is never an option lol, I have so much anxiety in the woods until Im settled in a stand I really think I need a sports psychologist

My feet were pointed down yesterday, in a tree I've hunted out of 50 times lol. I really need to take notes

I was just playing devils advocate. And besides, even if their fears are rational, the vaccine status of the person next to them has no bearing on the situation.

Im vaccinated and am doing no such thing. Nor did I before the vaccine existed

Some of you would love it here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Does this apply to the youth season?

I promised myself I wouldnt read the comments and then broke that promise. So now I'm aggravated

"There have been many unfortunate firearm accidents across the state and country, especially those involving youth hunters," he wrote in his veto letter to the county Legislature. There have?

Send it. I put one up in season last year and have killed five deer out of it