2011 Lunar Rut Predictions

[nyslowhand]

When the amount of daylight diminishes and the average temperatures fall to certain levels the rut begins.

BTW - that's typically sometime in the 1st three weeks of November as others have also observed.

The rut theories are really popular only for the specific reason of optimizing vacation time in one's busy life.

In summary;

Be there when you can because it's going to happen.

If you're not there, it definately will happen without you.

If you miss the main event, it may happen again later to a lesser degree.

[5.9cummins]

5.9 Cummins: Fetal backdating is bad science for a number of reasons: One, there is poor correlation between the different studies; 2, none of the studies that I am familiar with (5) use a large enough sample, and some are way to small: 3, there is no correlation between the peak of the rut in one year and the peak of the rut in another, so there is no correlation or sense in averaging them together. Just bad math. And finally, fawns vary in size just like all animals including humans...as fetuses and at birth. According to the Ohio DNR, buck fawns vary from four to 14 pounds at birth and doe fawns vary from 3 to 8 pounds at birth, so how can a fetal crown-to-rump scale have any validity?...and especially looking at the different races of deer around the country. Such bad science.

But I understand why the test samples are so small. It takes owning and penning a doe, watching her close to see the exact date when she is bred. Allowing the fetus to grow to a certain date. Kill her. Extract fetus, measure it or them (average cases of twins and triplets.) and then you have a mark on the scale. This has to be repeated over and over to arrive at a good, workable scale. I do not think it has been done yet.

Common Oak

No worse than the moon theorys that get kicked around. I will give you that they are small sample sizes and more data would be great but that's where my agreement ends.

P.S. hows midnight rambler treating you these days?

Attached is the document that was sent to me by a biologist that works in Canada and the work he has done.

Sorry for the delay - forgot all about this thread.

Moon_Myths.pdf

[Buckstopshere]

Yeah, he sent me that Moon Myth story last year. It is exactly what I am talking about, more bad science (too small sample size and little correlation between studies.) And the averaging...lumping together of data from various years and dates.

Actually, the moon is a better gauge to determining the rut than fetal backdating.

Problem is, most moon theories are wrong too. Take Charlie Alsheimer's prediction last year, when he said that we would see the latest rut we would ever see...and yet the rut occurred with two main spikes...one in the last few days of October, and one in the third week of November. This was validated, not only by hunters across the Northeast and the Midwest, but also by this May's fawn drop.

Midnight Rambler...is a vegetarian and a rabid anti-hunter, just another nut, but a driven nut. He hasn't posted much lately...at least against me. He must be spending his time plaguing somebody else! Too bad for them.

[nyslowhand]

FYI -Just one rut theory based on survival of the species.

Interesting article in the newest issue of Petersen's Bowhunting magazine about the whitetail rut.

Per the author of the article:

Deer have offspring at an optimum time in the spring to ensure survival.

Back dating the gestation peroid puts the rut (breeding) at a general, but consistent time frame in the fall.

Several Whitetail biologist from northern NA were polled and their opinions were;

The rut occurrs basically about the same time every year.

The moon phase or weather have little influence on the rut.

Night time rut activity is a common occurrence.

IMHO:

Kind of a generalized observance about the majority of breeding does & their activities.

As we all know, not all does go into esterous at the same time.

And of course, not all bucks behave the same during this hectic cycle of life peroid.

[dave6x6]

Phade, I personally had the exact opposite experience as you last yr. and if you hunt Livingston county then we probably are less than 20 miles from each other. In my opinion early Nov. is the best time to hunt big bucks on the move. The 1st through about the 10th with the 5th - 8th being traditionally the best every yr no matter what the moon phase. I would even argue that warm weather wont even stop the bucks on these days but it will mearly slow them down a bit and limit them to chasing does in different ways , but make no mistake they will be on their feet at some time during daylight hrs . Their biological needs will push them to look for does but they may not be in areas that you would expect to see them. Last yrs chase phase was off the hook for me on these days to the point where i was standing with my bow in hand for hrs at a time just watching the parade of shooter bucks. So i would agree with those that believe that decreasing light triggers the phases and it is around the same time every yr. Therefore i would not be choosing any date after the 12th or 13th if i could choose the 6th or 7th.

[5.9cummins]

Phade, I personally had the exact opposite experience as you last yr. and if you hunt Livingston county then we probably are less than 20 miles from each other. In my opinion early Nov. is the best time to hunt big bucks on the move. The 1st through about the 10th with the 5th - 8th being traditionally the best every yr no matter what the moon phase. I would even argue that warm weather wont even stop the bucks on these days but it will mearly slow them down a bit and limit them to chasing does in different ways , but make no mistake they will be on their feet at some time during daylight hrs . Their biological needs will push them to look for does but they may not be in areas that you would expect to see them. Last yrs chase phase was off the hook for me on these days to the point where i was standing with my bow in hand for hrs at a time just watching the parade of shooter bucks. So i would agree with those that believe that decreasing light triggers the phases and it is around the same time every yr. Therefore i would not be choosing any date after the 12th or 13th if i could choose the 6th or 7th.

My thoughts exactly.

That's why my vacation is from the 29th through the 13th.

[dave6x6]

My thoughts exactly.

That's why my vacation is from the 29th through the 13th.

Cummins, i'm not loving the way the calendar falls this yr. I'll be starting my vava. on the 29th also but in a perferct world i would love the 2nd-9th. When ever there is a calendar issue that doesn't work out perfect, i will always choose the earlier dates. In my opinion if i've choosen early and it turns out to be too early, at least i'm solidly still in the seeking phase. But if you choose late and the woods explodes before your vaca., then you run the serious risk of being in lockdown. That can be tough, frustrating huntin'

[5.9cummins]

Cummins, i'm not loving the way the calendar falls this yr. I'll be starting my vava. on the 29th also but in a perferct world i would love the 2nd-9th. When ever there is a calendar issue that doesn't work out perfect, i will always choose the earlier dates. In my opinion if i've choosen early and it turns out to be too early, at least i'm solidly still in the seeking phase. But if you choose late and the woods explodes before your vaca., then you run the serious risk of being in lockdown. That can be tough, frustrating huntin'

I would agree with that analysis as well. I have played around with taking the last two weeks before gun as well as some time in late October. I have never really seen squat that last week before gun but just before Halloween has always been pretty good as well. A couple of guys I know that take deer reliably with a bow have similar experiences.

[hb270deermanager]

I bank on the first 10 days for the best prerut and chase timing.

I will be doing my heaviest hunting and using my calls and scents

more around this time starting with drag trailing doe in heat in a

60 to 100 yd area around my stands to later say the 10 of nov til

around the 15 th when I will use mock scrapes with a combo of

buck urine and some doe in heat they have been killer setups in

the past just have to know when and how much to use.I have

been pretty lucky in yrs past with this I can only think of 2 yrs

that I had not been successful good luck guys and be safe.

[BizCT]

Going to PA 10/30 - 11/6 (no sunday hunting though) with the crossbow.