DEC Office of Climate Change Sea-level rise projection meetings

[mike rossi]

Source: http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/100236.html

 

Climate Change Adaptation in New York

 

A big gap in the road by the shore of a waterbody that was washed out
Higher sea levels intensify storm surges.
Superstorm Sandy's ferocious surge damaged
this road in Mount Loretto unique area, Staten Island.
New York's climate is becoming wetter and warmer.

Scientists project greater weather variability, with intense storms becoming more frequent and floods more damaging. Precipitation is likely to increase somewhat, but between wet periods we may endure several weeks when no rain falls.

How much our climate actually changes will depend in part on how successfully, and how soon, nations are able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

But some climate change is already unavoidable. New York is working to estimate likely risks and help communities and businesses adapt to a changing climate.

Sea-level rise projection meetings June 23-25
To strengthen New York's preparedness for climate change, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo recently signed into law the Community Risk and Resiliency Act (CRRA). CRRA requires DEC and other state agencies to adopt by January 1, 2016 official State sea-level rise projections that willl serve as the basis for State adaptation decisions and will be available for use by all decision makers.

Before DEC proposes a draft regulation adopting sea-level rise projections, four meetings, including a webinar, will provide an opportunity for public input. Later in 2015, a draft rule will be made available for formal public comment.

At the meetings, DEC staff will introduce CRRA and present scientific information being considered relative to the regulation establishing sea-level rise projections. Participants will have opportunity to provide additional input for consideration.

Public meeting dates and locations are as follows:

Tuesday, June 23 - 1:00 p.m. at Wertheim National Wildlife Refuge Visitor Center, 340 Smith Road, Shirley, Suffolk County

Tuesday, June 23 - 7:00 p.m. at Operation Splash, 202 Woodcleft Ave., Freeport, Nassau County

Wednesday, June 24 - 10:00 a.m. at Hunter College, West Building, Room 511, 67th St. and Lexington Ave., New York City, New York County

Thursday, June 25 - 2:30 p.m. at DEC headquarters, Room 129, 625 Broadway, Albany, Albany County

Individuals planning to attend the June 25 meeting in Albany are asked to pre-register with the Office of Climate Change at [email protected] or by phone at 518-402-8448. Failure to pre-register may result in delayed entry to the meeting. Those attending must present photographic identification. For additional information on CRRA and the sea-level rise projection regulation, contact the Office of Climate Change.

The June 25 meeting will be accessible via WebEx webinar service
Meeting Number: 642 587 387

Meeting Password: tides1

To join the webinar

Go to https://meetny.webex.com/meetny/j.php?MTID=md76e33d4a7d61457259b1bfe099c73d9
If requested, enter your name and email address.

Enter the meeting password: tides1

Click "Join." To view in other time zones or languages, click the link: https://meetny.webex.com/meetny/j.php?MTID=m2c3946e751a0f3d69c03b16aabc45929

To join the audio conference only

Provide your number when you join the meeting to receive a call back. Alternatively, you can call one of the following numbers: Local: 1-518-549-0500 Toll Free: 1-844-633-8697 Alternate Toll Free (For callers not able to call the 844 Toll Free Number): 1-866-776-3553

Follow the instructions that you hear on the phone.

Extreme events threaten resources and people
Extreme weather and floods make headlines -- they kill and injure, disrupt entire regions, contaminate water and promote insect borne diseases. Cleanup and restoration consume scarce public- and private-sector resources, often for months or years.

For New York's coastal and estuarine areas, the greatest climate risk is flooding from the combination of more frequent severe storms and rising seas. With more than half of the state's population, and infrastructure worth many billions of dollars, our coastal areas are vulnerable to widespread suffering and loss from floods.

For upland areas of the state, projections show more frequent heavy precipitation events. Torrential rains and heavy snow or ice create risks to life, health and infrastructure. Such storms can disrupt not only travel, electric power and communication, but also agriculture, tourism and other vital economic sectors.

Everyday climate risks also raise vulnerability
Snowy scene of trees weighted down with snow next to power cables also covered in snow
Heavy ice events disrupt
electric power, communications
and transportation.
Not only extreme events, but also any change from the predictable and moderate conditions of the past can interfere with accustomed activities and create new risks. The changes discussed below have been observed in New York and are projected to continue.

Rising sea levels: Mid-range projections (25 to 75 percent likelihood) of sea-level rise along New York's coast are 18 to 50 inches in this century. Such high levels would greatly intensify the danger and damage from storm-related flooding.

Warmer temperatures: Long, intense heat waves raise health risks for human and animal populations. Warm winters and hot summers will likely lower the productivity of temperature-sensitive agricultural products like maple syrup, apples and dairy. Warmer weather also favors disease carriers and pests.

New precipitation patterns: Heavy precipitation is expected to fall more frequently, and there may be a trend toward longer-lasting events that compound the damage. Similarly, persistent shortages of precipitation can be expected more often. Such shortages can lower field crop yields and reduce the amount of water available for drinking, irrigation and hydropower.

Weather variability: Unusual weather not only inconveniences people, but also disrupts natural cycles. For instance, warm spells in late winter can make plants bud and bloom early. Young leaves and flowers are vulnerable to severe damage if temperatures later swing back below freezing; early blooms may be gone before the arrival of birds or insects that pollinate and feed on them.

Setting up for resilience
Climate change impacts already are testing New Yorkers' ability to survive problems and come back better.

These impacts are likely to intensify, increasing the value of resilience measures adopted now.

As climate change progresses, more New Yorkers are likely to confront physical disasters like Hurricane Irene and Superstorm Sandy. What is more, most of us will encounter impacts that are less dramatic but still costly or disturbing - more dying trees, lower crop or garden yields, our favorite catch missing from the creel.

Recent experiences, accumulating data and current projections are revealing how climate risks threaten different areas of New York. Knowledge of these risks enables businesses, governments and individuals to plan for resilience.

Community Risk and Resiliency Act (CRRA)
Stream and collapsed bridge
This bridge over Stony Clove Creek in Ulster
County is an example of the extensive damage
to inland New York's infrastructure by ten days of record rainfall from Hurricane Irene (2011).
CRRA includes two key provisions to advance New York's climate change adaptation:

First, applicants to certain State programs must demonstrate that they have taken into account future physical climate risks caused by storm surges, sea-level rise or flooding.

Second, DEC must establish in regulation State-adopted sea level rise projections, which will be used as the basis for State adaptation decisions and will be available for use by all decision makers.

CRRA applies to specific State permitting, funding and regulatory decisions, including smart growth assessments; funding for wastewater treatment plants; siting of hazardous waste facilities; design and construction of petroleum and chemical bulk storage facilities; oil and gas drilling, and State acquisition of open space.

Sea-level rise projections
New York State has sponsored a statewide study of the impacts of climate change on our population and resources. Titled ClimAID, the study was completed in 2011; a 2014 supplement updated its sea-level rise projections and incorporated data from recent severe storms and updated climate modeling.

Cows outside barn behind electric wire fence with heads poking through
Dairy cows produce less milk in very hot weather,
so as temperatures warm New York will see
impacts on one of its prime agricultural sectors.
An additional sea-level rise study, limited to Nassau and Suffolk counties, has been released by the New York State Resiliency Institute for Storms and Emergencies (RISE). The reports and supplement are available through the ClimAID and RISE links at right.

Post-Disaster Recovery: Next Generation
The American Planning Association's Hazards Planning Center worked under an agreement with FEMA to develop Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: Next Generation. This updated manual offers an explanation of the benefits and limitations of planning for unpredictable events (see link at right).

Protecting families and communities
People sometimes raise concerns about the cost to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and increase climate resilience. The preliminary analysis of ClimAID 2011 shows that failure to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change in a timely fashion may prove more costly than the supposed "savings" from delaying a response.

The high cost of doing nothing
It is important to compare outlays for adaptation measures with the costs of doing nothing, and to take into account the importance of climate change losses to society.

ClimAID 2011 (link at right) initiated these comparisons with a statewide analysis of limited data on eight economic sectors. This study concluded that unless resilience measures are put in place, by mid-century the total costs of climate change for key economic sectors in New York State each year may approach $10 billion (in 2010 dollars).

The study projected the largest likely direct impacts and costs of climate change in coastal areas, chiefly impacting transportation, energy and other infrastructure, and natural resources. However, it concluded, all economic sectors and all parts of the state will feel impacts like lower agricultural crop yields and dairy production, or declining winter recreation tourism.

Aerial view of flooded buildings and parking lot
Extensive power outages or flood damage to roads can disrupt a wide area for many weeks.

For one or more elements in each sector analyzed, the projections show the following mid-century (2050s) annual costs of climate change impacts: water resources, $116-203 million; ocean coastal zones, $44-77 million; ecosystems, $375-525 million; agriculture, $140-289 million; energy, $36-73 million; transportation, $100-170 million; communications, $15-30 million; and public health, $2,998-6,098 million. These figures probably understate the aggregate expected costs, especially for heavily developed coastal areas.

Improving resilience: cost-effective common sense
As the global average temperature rises, New Yorkers already are seeing more extreme precipitation, heat and storms. Making our properties and communities more resilient in the face of these changes is common sense and good business.
Before DEC drafts a proposed regulation, four meetings, including a webinar, will provide an opportunity for public input. Later in 2015, the draft rule will be made available for formal comment.

[Curmudgeon]

Some on this site will call you a troll for your pro-science view. I heard the pope called a "closet Marxist". Prepare for noise.

 

[Mr VJP]

I remember when the "science" said NYC would be under water by now too.

 

[Mr VJP]

I really wouldn't care about the propaganda, if it wasn't such a threat to the average American's wallet!  Until the entire world agrees climate change is scientifically proven to be caused by human beings, and ALL the world's countries decide to cooperate in making affordable changes, I do not think we should be the only one's sacrificing our economy until we also become a third world country.

 

Edited June 16, 2015 by Mr VJP

[tony m]

The Coming Ice Age 1978.

 

Predicted by - experts.  And  - Leonard Nimoy.

 

Edited June 16, 2015 by tony m

[mike rossi]

Just thought some people would want to attend these DEC meetings, that's all. Here is the germane part: 

 

At the meetings, DEC staff will introduce CRRA and present scientific information being considered relative to the regulation establishing sea-level rise projections. Participants will have opportunity to provide additional input for consideration.

Public meeting dates and locations are as follows:
Tuesday, June 23 - 1:00 p.m. at Wertheim National Wildlife Refuge Visitor Center, 340 Smith Road, Shirley, Suffolk County
Tuesday, June 23 - 7:00 p.m. at Operation Splash, 202 Woodcleft Ave., Freeport, Nassau County
Wednesday, June 24 - 10:00 a.m. at Hunter College, West Building, Room 511, 67th St. and Lexington Ave., New York City, New York County
Thursday, June 25 - 2:30 p.m. at DEC headquarters, Room 129, 625 Broadway, Albany, Albany County
Individuals planning to attend the June 25 meeting in Albany are asked to pre-register with the Office of Climate Change at [email protected] or by phone at 518-402-8448. Failure to pre-register may result in delayed entry to the meeting. Those attending must present photographic identification. For additional information on CRRA and the sea-level rise projection regulation, contact the Office of Climate Change.
The June 25 meeting will be accessible via WebEx webinar service
Meeting Number: 642 587 387
Meeting Password: tides1
To join the webinar
Go to https://meetny.webex...59b1bfe099c73d9
If requested, enter your name and email address.
Enter the meeting password: tides1
Click "Join." To view in other time zones or languages, click the link: https://meetny.webex...c03b16aabc45929
To join the audio conference only
Provide your number when you join the meeting to receive a call back. Alternatively, you can call one of the following numbers: Local: 1-518-549-0500 Toll Free: 1-844-633-8697 Alternate Toll Free (For callers not able to call the 844 Toll Free Number): 1-866-776-3553
Follow the instructions that you hear on the phone.

[Mr VJP]

Maybe we should all go to protest the proposed changes.

 

[The_Field_Ager]

 

Scientists project greater weather variability, with intense storms becoming more frequent and floods more damaging.

 

 

Scientists? Which scientists? There isn't a single credible link to any 'science' on the entire page? Just some guff about computer generated projections.

 

Didn't Al gore just go and buy some very expensive sea-front property? He can't really be that concerned, in spite of his chicken-little-ism.

 

 

 

 paper published April 17th 2014 in Nature reconstructs sea levels over the past 5.3 million years and shows that sea levels were higher than the present during almost every interglacial period over the past 5.3 million years. Sea levels at present during the current interglacial are indicated as the added red horizontal line at zero meters on Fig. 2 below, and excursions above this line indicate sea levels during past interglacials as much as 50+ meters [164+ feet] higher than present sea levels. Thus, there is no evidence that sea level rise during the present interglacial is unprecedented, unnatural, unusual or any different from that which occurred in prior interglacials, or any evidence of influence by man on sea levels.

 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/14/claim-no-change-in-sea-level-until-modern-times-but-that-change-is-dwarfed-by-sea-levels-of-the-past/

Edited June 16, 2015 by Papist

[DirtTime]

Science = calculated guess.

I am not against what they think, but their only right about 30% of the time. So I guess that makes them kinda like the NYS DEC. We don't seem to trust the DEC now do we?

 

Science: Examining the material universe;

 

Science^{[nb 1]} is a systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe.^{[nb 2]} In an older and closely related meaning, "science" also refers to this body of knowledge itself, of the type that can be rationally explained and reliably applied. Ever since classical antiquity, science as a type of knowledge has been closely linked to philosophy. In the West during the early modern periodthe words "science" and "philosophy of nature" were sometimes used interchangeably,^[2].3and until the 19th century natural philosophy (which is today called "natural science") was considered a branch of philosophy.^[3]

 

 

 

 

^Source:

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science}