Question about DMP and getting license

[Mambwe]

I have two preference points for the WMU I will be hunting. Do I have better odds of getting a doe permit if I purchase my license today versus 1 month from now?

[Doewhacker]

Same odds today as a month from now. Per the DEC website.

"DMP Selection Probabilities Remain the Same through the Entire Application Period"

[Culvercreek hunt club]

6 minutes ago, Mambwe said:

I have two preference points for the WMU I will be hunting. Do I have better odds of getting a doe permit if I purchase my license today versus 1 month from now?

no. Odds and random draw is made based on the number they believe that will apply. Once the application time closes if any are left over they will go back through an send any left overs (if there are any) to that unit randomly to people that applied and didn't get them.  

Edited August 2, 2017 by Culvercreek hunt club

[stubby68]

Land owners always get permit and get it first. If there are only say 2000 dmp being issued for a unit and 2200 land owners put in for permits that leaves none for other hunters. How is this random? I always get denied for at least 1 of my selections if I apply after the first 3 days. I started making sure I apply the first day and haven't been denied any in over 15 years. If it were truly a lottery all hunters would have to have applied before any are issued. Then names would be drawn and permits handed out. The mega millions is a lottery we do not find out if we ever won on the day we buy our ticket. We find out after a deadline then numbers are drawn.  I just do not understand how it is a lottery if all applications are not in to be drawn from. A friend's farther always got licenses on last couple of days, just was never in a hurry to get them because as they say same chance last day as first.  He always got denied. 2 years ago we convinced him to get them the first day. He got both his choices that year same with last year and then again yesterday. He went from having his son signing one over every year to having 2 of his own just by getting them early. Not trying to start anything here just can not sure how it can be a lottery. On the other hand I know guys who get denied earl u and others who get them late.

[Doewhacker]

They use Vodoo or as some call it Math.

 

Deer Management Permits (DMPs), often called "doe tags", are a critical part of New York's deer management program. By adjusting the number of DMPs available in individual Wildlife Management Units, we can influence the number of does that are taken by hunters and thus manipulate the population toward desired levels. Annual removal of appropriate numbers of does is essential for ecologically responsible deer management and is beneficial for sustaining biodiversity and maintaining healthy habitat and healthy deer.

DMP Quota Setting

The math involved in setting DMP numbers is actually quite simple, though the process of determining several of the variables in the equation is complex. Here is the essence of the permit setting process:

Step 1. Projected Buck Take X Removal Rate1 = Total # of Adult Does to be Harvested

Step 2. Total # of Adult Does to be Harvested - # Adult Does Taken by Muzzleloader Hunters and Archers and on DMAP tags = Necessary Adult Doe DMP Take

Step 3. Necessary Adult Doe DMP Take ÷ Proportion of Adult Does in DMP Take2 = Total Desired DMP Take

Step 4. Total Desired DMP Take ÷ Success Rate of DMPs = Total # of DMPs to Issue

1 Desired ratio of adult female to adult male deer in harvest

2 This accounts for fawns in the DMP take.

The first two variables (projected buck take and removal rate) are the key places where analysis of deer population trends and management action come into play. The other variables are essentially derived from previous harvest data (for example: "Success rate of DMPs" may be a 3 year average), but we can alter these variables if we anticipate some change in how deer are harvested (for example: "#Adult does taken by muzzleloader hunters and archers" could be impacted by a regulation change). The real art and craft to deer management in New York comes through interpreting the data to project the buck take and in determining the appropriate removal rate.

The process of projecting the buck take involves studying trends in buck harvest relative to previous levels of doe harvest and age structures of previous buck and doe harvests. We incorporate several population indices (bowhunter sighting log, damage levels, winter severity) and evaluate herd health and productivity through yearling antler beam diameters and ratios of fawns to adult does in the harvest.

Similarly, determining an appropriate removal rate (ratio of adult does to adult bucks in harvest) requires analyzing trends in buck harvest relative to previous levels of adult doe harvest. We examine this relationship to identify a removal rate that produces stability at a given population level, allowing for neither growth nor reduction in population. The stability-level removal rate is different at different population levels and is strongly influenced by herd productivity. In some high quality habitats of New York, the deer populations can sustain high removal rates of one or more adult doe to every adult buck. In the poorer quality habitats or areas subject to harsh winter conditions, removal rates may be as low as 0.2 adult does to every adult buck. Once we identify a stability-level removal rate, we relate the current population level to the desired level. If the population is currently greater than desired levels, we prescribe a greater-than-stability-level removal rate, and if the population is less than desired levels, then we prescribe a less-than-stability-level removal rate. The magnitude of difference between our prescribed removal rate and the stability level removal rate depends on our management objective. Typically we manage for conservative changes from year to year, trying to minimize dramatic fluctuations in population levels.

While our intentions usually are for conservative changes, severe winters can have dramatic and rapid impacts on deer populations. In fact, the history of New York's deer population is punctuated with periodic winter mortality events, most recently evident in 2003 and 2004. Though we account for the impact of previous winters when setting DMP quotas, we unfortunately cannot anticipate the severity of the upcoming winter. Other mortality factors such as predation, poaching, and deer-vehicle collisions do influence deer populations, but their impact tends to be fairly constant from year to year or at least the variation in their impact is minimal compared to the potential impact of winter mortality and hunter harvest mortality.

Permit Selection

Quota setting is only the first part of the DMP process. The next step is to get the permits in the hands of our hunters. DMPs are issued by an instant selection process at the point of sale allowing applicants who are selected for DMPs to receive their permits immediately. The system is designed to provide equal opportunity for a hunter regardless of whether they apply on the first or last day of the application period. The chances for DMP selection are determined by the DMP quota and the number of applications expected for each WMU. An applicant's chances of selection are also affected by residency status, qualification as a land owner or veteran with disabilities, and the number of preference points accumulated through previous DMP applications. For example:

DMP selection example: DMP Target = 500Landowner and Veterans
with DisabilitiesResidents with
Preference Points

Residents without
Preference Points

# Applicants1002501,500

# Odds of Selection100%100%10%

# # Permits Issued100250150

# # DMPs remaining4001500

Actual DMP issuance is impacted by application rates, and predicting the number of applicants is not easy. Fortunately, we have been issuing DMPs for many years and can examine trends in applicant number to make reasonable estimates. Yet application rates vary, and each year we have several units which do not reach our target issuance during the initial application period. If a unit is substantially under-subscribed at the close of the initial application period (October 1 each year), we run another random selection of hunters that were denied during the initial period or, if necessary, open the unit up for a secondary application period in November.

Hunters play an essential role in maintaining appropriate deer numbers in New York and our DMP system is the cornerstone of that process.

DMP Trivia

QuestionAnswer

First year with either-sex deer hunting1952

Party Permit established1962

First year an individual could receive more than one DMP1991

Consignment of DMPs allowed2003

Greatest number of DMPs issued770,990 DMPs in 2002

Average number of DMPs issued (2005-2007)432,162

Average annual DMP success rate (2005-2007)16.2%

[Culvercreek hunt club]

1 hour ago, stubby68 said:

Land owners always get permit and get it first. If there are only say 2000 dmp being issued for a unit and 2200 land owners put in for permits that leaves none for other hunters. How is this random? I always get denied for at least 1 of my selections if I apply after the first 3 days. I started making sure I apply the first day and haven't been denied any in over 15 years. If it were truly a lottery all hunters would have to have applied before any are issued. Then names would be drawn and permits handed out. The mega millions is a lottery we do not find out if we ever won on the day we buy our ticket. We find out after a deadline then numbers are drawn.  I just do not understand how it is a lottery if all applications are not in to be drawn from. A friend's farther always got licenses on last couple of days, just was never in a hurry to get them because as they say same chance last day as first.  He always got denied. 2 years ago we convinced him to get them the first day. He got both his choices that year same with last year and then again yesterday. He went from having his son signing one over every year to having 2 of his own just by getting them early. Not trying to start anything here just can not sure how it can be a lottery. On the other hand I know guys who get denied earl u and others who get them late.

We aren't talking about land owner permits and on this topic you are wrong

[stubby68]

15 minutes ago, Culvercreek hunt club said:

We aren't talking about land owner permits and on this topic you are wrong

What am I wrong on. Are land owner tag numbers separate?  Asking so I know. If info I have is wrong I would appreciate the correct info. Never disused it with the eco I hunt with. So I very well could be assuming some things wrong.

[stoneam2006]

What am I wrong on. Are land owner tag numbers separate?  Asking so I know. If info I have is wrong I would appreciate the correct info. Never disused it with the eco I hunt with. So I very well could be assuming some things wrong.

It's not a lottery it's a probability factor if say 1 of ever 3 gets it there's computer software that does it. I usually apply within first week and get denied alot my dad usually applies last day and gets them sometimes my uncle applies middle of go around and he gets it some times. Lottery s a b.s. way to put it...ita a computer aided probability factor....thats why they mail left overs to people who applied and get denied.

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[sethf11]

I have gotten 2 each year for the past 4 years. It's all probability. Sometimes you are lucky and sometimes not. I went with a few friend last year. I got 2 guy behind me got denied both then the next guy 1.


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[Culvercreek hunt club]

1 hour ago, stubby68 said:

What am I wrong on. Are land owner tag numbers separate?  Asking so I know. If info I have is wrong I would appreciate the correct info. Never disused it with the eco I hunt with. So I very well could be assuming some things wrong.

The posting Doewacker put up explains it well. They determine how many does they need to take. pull back the landowner and Disabled vet numbers that usually apply. That yields a number. Apply variables like success rate and they calculate they need to give out ???? number of permits.  Say the number is 100 permits need to be issued  for ease of discussion.  They look at their normal application rate for the area.  Say historically 300 hunters apply in the area. That gives you a 1 in 3 chance.  It's a computerized system. so you, me and Doewacker are at the license issuing agent in our home towns and applying for the same area trying to get one of those 100 permits.  My info goes through and "denied". Doewacker's info goes through and "denied". Yours goes through next and ":approved".  You were the 1 out of 3.  now the application period is all done on September 30th. They look at that area and see that only 98 permits were issued during this process. They randomly select 2 people that got denied for that area like me and Doewacker and they mail us the permits.  After that process if all the permits are NOT given out they put those units up for the second application period that starts on November 1st.  Seems to be the same areas year after year that are on the under issued list. 

Edited August 2, 2017 by Culvercreek hunt club

[TACC]

Great explanation from both you and Doewacker, thanks

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[Steve D]

On ‎8‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 11:13 AM, Mambwe said:

Do I have better odds of getting a doe permit if I purchase my license today versus 1 month from now?

Check the DMP Targets and Your Chances of Being Selected for a Doe Tag before Applying

This fall, we are increasing the statewide allocation of Deer Management Permits (DMPs) for antlerless harvest by about 11% over what we issued last year. See DMP Availability and Probability of Selection to review our target allocation of DMPs for each Wildlife Management Unit (WMU) and to anticipate your odds of being selected for a tag.

There's no need to rush out to be first in line for a DMP, though.  Your chances of obtaining a DMP remain the same throughout the entire application period.  Just be sure to apply for a DMP before the October 1 deadline.  For questions, contact the DMP Hotline (1-866-472-4332) or read about the DMP application process.