Buckmasters question of what has changed.

[reeltime]

while I know this question was directed at Bill  I will give my honest 2 cents worth for a response.

when we were doing the trap and transfer here in pa back in the late 70's, 80's  and releasing birds into areas where there were small populations or no populations it seemed that the "new" resident bird numbers increased very quickly. the numbers seemed to explode to the point where just about every woodslot had birds. I know up along the lakeshore counties of NY the numbers did the same fast increase.

It seems the numbers reach a maximum carrying capacity ( I don't believe its food carrying capacity, its more population driven within the species)  once they plateau they seem to stay at remarkably high levels for 8-10 years and then the numbers drop back to a lower level. 

so once the numbers fall back any fluctuation in flock numbers is far more noticeable and along the same lines when you have fewer hens nesting and you have a bad nesting season resulting in a poor hatch it is once again more noticeable. 

also I believe that the poult recruitment is much more successful with 2 +yr old hens -vs- the 10-13 month old jennys it just seems the older hens are far more successful in raising a clutch of poults.  We all know that no matter what late spring early to mid summer weather plays a huge role in nesting,  the weather we are forecasted for here in PA and NY this weekend will certainly be detrimental to any of the poults that have hatched in the last 3 weeks.

with all that said,,,, what has changed in my eyes....

1. hunter numbers,, with all of the hunting shows, forums, everyone wants to be a celebrity channel (youtube) there are FAR higher numbers of hunters now hunting turkeys than when I started hunting them 43 years ago.  higher numbers of hunters generally equates to more pressure which can cause birds to be less vocal and certainly less responsive to calling.  As I have always said the birds go 11 months and hear very little hen talk on a daily basis, then they wake up one morning on their favorite roost branch and it sound to them like there is a hen behind every tree it doesn't take them long to figure it out.

2. habitat, its remarkable how much the habitat has changed everywhere in the last 20 years,  there are hundreds of thousands of acres that used to be good wildlife habitat that is now housing developments, malls, parking lots, business building sites.  farms are being sold weekly to only become housing tracts. 

3. food,  with the demand in lumber and people wanting all the $$ they can get from their land the oaks, beech, wild cherry trees are being hauled out of the woods at alarming rates. these are not fast growing softwoods these hardwood mast bearing trees can take 10-15 to even 20 years to produce a mast crop.   current farming practices are NO comparison to those of 20-30 years ago, the way the land is managed and crops.  The harvesting machines of today leave very little spilled food while harvesting... rotation crop fields are being turned into orchards, vineyards,  nursery stock fields.

4.  Predators.. as we all know the predator numbers have increased 10 fold in the past 30 years, when I was a kid and ran coon hounds a 6 coon night was talked about for weeks,  today you can do that in 1 field.. skunks, possums, yotes, fox, fisher, bobcat, mink, weasels can and will raid nests, kill poults and will even kill adult birds given the opportunity. these are all predators we can help control.  hawks, owls, eagles, we can not control legally but they are certainly killing poults if given the opportunity. 

 

[coonhunter]

When the anti fur movement took hold, the bottom dropped out of the fur market. This made it so trapping became too much work and time for little reward. Over the years the nest raiders and predators have taken over. It is hard for a nest to go undisturbed on the ground, and the hens are vulnerable to all the coyotes, bobcats, and even red foxes will take a shot if they catch one unaware.

Now, if a hen is actually able to find a good, undisturbed spot for her nest, the spring weather just seems to be horrible year after year. It is crazy. This weekend alone almost assures it will be a low survival rate again this year.

It used to be that in the summer I would see a cut hayfield with 3 or 4 hens in it. There would be 15-20 poults mixed in with them. Now, I feel fortunate to see 3-4 hens with 4-5 poults mixed in. Or to have a small batch cross the road in front of me.

I still seem to have a decent population, but a lot of hunters here are complaining about horrible hunting this spring. 

[G-Man]

Lots of birds around this year due to hatch success last years dry spring. I have seen hens reappear on camera in groups with Tom's and Jake's as nest must of been destroyed, in successful nests, poults should be hatching anytime now, dry conditions are not predicted.....

 I see hay mowed everywhere for silage right now, this and the reclaimed fallow fields reduce nesting areas considerably,  creation of food plots ( and the clover mowing craze ) and ethanol demand for corn imo reduce the ability for a successful nest.  No cover from ground predators, then hawks, owls and eagle will take poults from above easily, not to mention crows and ravens getting eggs as well. 

[OldBrian]

What has changed? 
I assume the question refers to turkey numbers as compared to the past. 
I started hunting spring gobblers way back in the 80s and the numbers were probably very similar to today’s in my area of New York. That said the current population is low compared to a decade or so ago. My thoughts are cold wet springs effected the poult survival rate. The lack of trappers out there is not helping the poults ether.