The new survey that DEC has out through Cornell

[Hoss315er]

Political polls are astutely accurate; they are so accurate that they can cause the public to not actually come out and vote - example - Rochester Mayor Tom Richards losing the in the primary.

 

What about Livingston county sheriff election? Who won anyways?

Edited October 30, 2013 by Hoss315er

[WesternNY]

I read the survey I trust Cornell more than the state.   I again don't think it was perfect nor will be the outcome of the new management plan.  Also I would like to add that even if say 60/40 are in favor of say 1 buck per year period in the survey, I doubt it will be automatic change for 2015.  I am sure they will have public outreach events where you can voice your opinion.   

 

Would I like to have a say in the survey you betcha.   I just don't see why it is getting people so fired up.

 

 

[phade]

What about Livingston county sheriff election?

 

Seemed like the polls predicted the split, no?

 

One ran on Conservative vs republican ticket....at that point you are cannibalizing your own party ranks.

[phade]

I read the survey I trust Cornell more than the state.   I again don't think it was perfect nor will be the outcome of the new management plan.  Also I would like to add that even if say 60/40 are in favor of say 1 buck per year period in the survey, I doubt it will be automatic change for 2015.  I am sure they will have public outreach events where you can voice your opinion.   

 

Would I like to have a say in the survey you betcha.   I just don't see why it is getting people so fired up.

 

 

The public DEC meetings are horrible. Hunters arguing this way, that way, and every way in between, and ultimately, nobody is happy at the end.

[WesternNY]

The public DEC meetings are horrible. Hunters arguing this way, that way, and every way in between, and ultimately, nobody is happy at the end.

 

Oh,  I know just like the Forums 

[Culvercreek hunt club]

 

Would I like to have a say in the survey you betcha.   I just don't see why it is getting people so fired up.

Just seems like a waste of effort and halk hearted just as their last one was. Look back at their results and their margin of errors on some of the hot topics. IMO I think the last one did more to muddy the waters than the clear up where the hunters really stood.

[Culvercreek hunt club]

Retailers

 When ws the last time you registered, took the survey and got a HIP #? 

[phade]

Just seems like a waste of effort and halk hearted just as their last one was. Look back at their results and their margin of errors on some of the hot topics. IMO I think the last one did more to muddy the waters than the clear up where the hunters really stood.

 

I look at it from the opposite perspective. The last one didn't muddy the water; it merely highlighted the fact the water was muddy to begin with and that a survey dedicated solely to social-related hunting desires became warranted.

 

Sometimes an unexpected outcome of an effort belies a new direction of travel.

[G-Man]

Here is the thing ... random hunter chosen, only a small percentage return. Would be better if you had to fill out mandatory before purchasing licence. Then and only then will the silent apathetic ones be heard. Forums like this are usually attended by " die hards " or want to be "die hard newbies" same as in crossbow, the vocal minority is heard because they are active. Does a nothing resp once = in favor of or against?? Just as in all politics ...the squeaky wheel gets the grease.......

[phade]

Here is the thing ... random hunter chosen, only a small percentage return. Would be better if you had to fill out mandatory before purchasing licence. Then and only then will the silent apathetic ones be heard. Forums like this are usually attended by " die hards " or want to be "die hard newbies" same as in crossbow, the vocal minority is heard because they are active. Does a nothing resp once = in favor of or against?? Just as in all politics ...the squeaky wheel gets the grease.......

 

If you sample 1% or 100% you still have the same subset of % who are die hards, apathetics, and whackos. Those who don't respond are the ones who I don't want answering the question to begin with, because apathy is a recipe for disaster.

 

If you flip a coin once or 100 times, the % are still mathematically the same.

Edited October 30, 2013 by phade

[Culvercreek hunt club]

 

If you flip a coin once or 100 times, the % are still mathematically the same.

The probability is the same but the outcome can vary widely

[Culvercreek hunt club]

Retailers sell the bulk of licenses from what I understand - somewhere in the 75-80% range. Retailers make very little net profit on a per license sale. In fact, most retail outlets offer licensing as a value-adding, but profit leaking service to customers. Basically, they add the DECALS outlet to entice customers to come into the store to buy other items where a profit can be had.

 

Similar to a gas station - the profit isn't really in the gas for the store owner - it's in the soda, chips, beer, and cigarettes. Ever wonder why companies like Fast Trac encourage the 5c off per gallon of gas with their "free club membership"? It's because it requires you to walk into the store rather than to pay at the pump.

 

No retailer is going to want to reduce productivity on already over-worked, under-paid hourly retail employees. The DEC and any grants they get certainly cannot fund the retailers to comp them for added workers and the associated costs (health care, taxes, benefits, etc.). I personally rather entrust Cornell personnel over those part-time button pushers, even with a miniscule sample base. At least the study is valid and reliable.

 

This doesn't include the re-tooling of DECALS to accommodate such surveys. DECALS was an overrun product cost-wise by a significant %. There is no desire to add any additional funds into DECALS from an operational perspective.

 

 

Phade, You must have missed my question in all these posts. When is the last lime you registered, took the survey and got a HIP number?

[phade]

Phade, You must have missed my question in all these posts. When is the last lime you registered, took the survey and got a HIP number?

 

HIP is federally mandated, no? Big difference in funding. The Service is federal and doesn't care about deer hunter social desire in NY. The DEC does however, but doesn't have the coffer of the Service.

 

HIP is based on a voluntary survey of selected migratory bird hunters in the United States. In simplest terms, the state wildlife agencies collect the name, address, and some additional information from each migratory bird hunter in their state, and send that information to the Service. The Service then randomly selects a sample of those hunters and asks them to provide information on the kind and number of migratory birds they harvest during the hunting season. Those hunters’ reports are then used to develop reliable estimates of the total harvest of all migratory birds throughout the country.

Edited October 30, 2013 by phade

[Culvercreek hunt club]

I guess you are missing my point. I am talking about a system similiar. It is automated and it is not difficult. We utilize one at work we comissioned to asked specified questions with Keypad answers. Was pocket change and probably less that Cornell costs.

[phade]

I guess you are missing my point. I am talking about a system similiar. It is automated and it is not difficult. We utilize one at work we comissioned to asked specified questions with Keypad answers. Was pocket change and probably less that Cornell costs.

 

DECALS was not cheap. The third-party provider in Arizona or New Mexio...somewhere out there, is reaping the benefits of the DECALS cost. I forget the actual cost of DECALS, but I remember my face when I saw it. It wasn't a pretty face (not that it normally is).

 

DECALS would need added investment that simply won't happen in today's economy. The Cornell study is likely pocket change for the DEC and its possibly funded by federal dollars.

[Culvercreek hunt club]

So I guess since DECALS can't do it it can't be done.

[Terry]

If it's only pocket change, than why not 100,000 instead of 7,000?

[mike rossi]

Even if the data (responses) were collected at the point of license sales, it would still have to be analyzed. So Cornell would probably still be contracted to do the report…

 

This is a mail survey, which circumvents minimum wage retail clerks and/or telephone interviewers who call you about election polls.  However, Pennsylvania, and possibly other states, do in fact require hunters to complete their HIP survey at the time they purchase their state migratory bird hunting license. I think there are both good and bad with that, but it is easier for a retail clerk to enter a range of how many doves, crows, rail birds, woodcock, ducks and geese than it is for them to accurately enter responses to a social study…  Obviously, with more and more licenses purchased online, this is less of an issue, but many still buy licenses at the counter…

 

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by mike rossi

[WhitetailAddict11]

Love the questions, I think they're very practical and appropriate. I do agree however that we should all have a say. I noticed in the beginning of this thread that someone mentioned that he does not feel the survey seeks to improve the overall deer heard but just the antler size of our bucks. I personally feel that we have showed our inability as a state to manage for better bucks when based on personal discretion to let younger bucks walk, comparably, we have also shown our ability as a state to shoot a lot of deer, so keeping the "heard" in check shouldn't be a problem. I feel as though it is OUR job to manage heard size and the job of the STATE to protect yearling bucks. Just my 2 cents. Certainly not an attack post on whoever said that, just making a contribution to this topic.

[Doc]

Look, When I go to the town clerk for my license, she asks me what WMU I want my antlerless permit for. She then puts that into the computer. It doesn't seem to really be that much of a problem. So if she were to ask me whether I am for or against ARs, I doubt it would be that much more of a problem would it? And she could just as easily check a "yes" box or a "No" box couldn't she? Then let the damned computer do what computers were meant to do. No analyzing. No big expensive Cornell survey and resulting over-blown study. No need for touchy-feely investigations into your background and what makes you answer the way you did. You know what the question is, so ask the damned question and be done with it. Man, it seems as though everyone wants to take the long (expensive) way around to get a simple opinion.

 

Further, if more complex surveys are required, how about actually using up-to-date methods and technology. U.S. mail is about as archaic a way as possible and really stretches the credibility of any survey organization that is claiming to be using the latest most current technology. My gosh, this is the electronic age. I wouldn't think that postage, and manual submission, and paying someone to manually input the data into computers is really the most effective way to gather information. The DEC has a web site. There are many forms of cheat-proof survey software available. What the heck, you want to know hunters opinions, survey them there ...... for free, or for whatever the software might cost to use. No you won't get 100%, but you probably will beat the 7000 number by a bunch and save a pile of money in the process. This worship of the Cornell statisticians is getting a bit silly. We sit here and complain about every decision that comes out of the DEC when in fact most of that crap is based on studies by the supposed wizards at Cornell. 

[phade]

Look, When I go to the town clerk for my license, she asks me what WMU I want my antlerless permit for. She then puts that into the computer. It doesn't seem to really be that much of a problem. So if she were to ask me whether I am for or against ARs, I doubt it would be that much more of a problem would it? And she could just as easily check a "yes" box or a "No" box couldn't she? Then let the damned computer do what computers were meant to do. No analyzing. No big expensive Cornell survey and resulting over-blown study. No need for touchy-feely investigations into your background and what makes you answer the way you did. You know what the question is, so ask the damned question and be done with it. Man, it seems as though everyone wants to take the long (expensive) way around to get a simple opinion.

 

Further, if more complex surveys are required, how about actually using up-to-date methods and technology. U.S. mail is about as archaic a way as possible and really stretches the credibility of any survey organization that is claiming to be using the latest most current technology. My gosh, this is the electronic age. I wouldn't think that postage, and manual submission, and paying someone to manually input the data into computers is really the most effective way to gather information. The DEC has a web site. There are many forms of cheat-proof survey software available. What the heck, you want to know hunters opinions, survey them there ...... for free, or for whatever the software might cost to use. No you won't get 100%, but you probably will beat the 7000 number by a bunch and save a pile of money in the process. This worship of the Cornell statisticians is getting a bit silly. We sit here and complain about every decision that comes out of the DEC when in fact most of that crap is based on studies by the supposed wizards at Cornell. 

 

 

Everyone thinks is so simple. You are talking out your butt, quite frankly. They are looking at a complex social issue related to hunting. It's not as simple as yes/no on AR. They're looking at a plethora of possibilities in this survey. Yes/No is not always the best question/answer combination. Levels of willingness are often considered a much more acceptable measure of social sentiment.

 

We run SAS and R and Alteryx at my company and I'm privy to the costs because I conducted the business transactions. You know what one basic license costs for just the access to Alteryx? $60,000 dollars per year. That's just ONE analytic software and one license. Again, that's just the software. The DEC doesn't have an analytics team. Cornell or some other consultant would be needed at a likely cost of $50-100k minimum just to have them step foot in the door. And, that's not including any modifications to DECALS. Building a whole separate system is likely a breach of contract with the third-party provider of DECALS first off; not to mention the overall cost to have to seek bids, navigate RFP submissions, and determine a vendor, and then determine the cost. DECALS would likely require a significant cash outlay from the DEC. Getting that, seeing DECALS was a cost overrun, is unlikely.

 

Conducting a reliable and valid survey is complex and they're going about it the best way possible.

 

Would I like 100% input? Yes; but I also understand that such an undertaking would be next to impossible and the ability of Cornell is well positioned to provide the results according to scientifically proven and accepted methodologies. This method is even more desirable if Cornell can gather federal funds, of which the "other simple" method will not.

Edited October 31, 2013 by phade

[WesternNY]

I get that everyone wants a voice and in an ideal world that would be the case.

 

The bottom line is this whole ordeal may bring change and face it,  Most people don't like change.

 

 

[phade]

I get that everyone wants a voice and in an ideal world that would be the case.

 

The bottom line is this whole ordeal may bring change and face it,  Most people don't like change.

 

X2

 

Big time.

 

WIIFM syndrome is a major issue. What's in it for me?

[Culvercreek hunt club]

 

Would I like 100% input? Yes; but I also understand that such an undertaking would be next to impossible and the ability of Cornell is well positioned to provide the results according to scientifically proven and accepted methodologies. This method is even more desirable if Cornell can gather federal funds, of which the "other simple" method will not.

Mark my words, they will issue a report that creates more questions that answers. I understand you make your living making simple issues into complex ones but this really isn't a difficult task.

 

As I stated where i work we set up a phone survey for employees to gather information. The employee calles in . is asked to enter their employee number (could be your license number) Then there are a series of 6 questions with 1 for yes and 2 for no. Results are available in spreadsheet format at any time. Cost was less than $20,000. and we control the questions and can modify them ourselves at any time to reflect new open positions available.

 

SO it may be out of my butt but that does seem pretty simple. At that point, just like HIP is should issue a number to validate your license.

[mike rossi]

I am not a stats guy, but theoretically, using a partial sample is cheaper, faster, and yields very similar conclusions to interviewing every person. Since in this scenario people can be surveyed at the time they buy their license, cheaper and faster may not be a factor. However, as I said, the responses still have to be analyzed and summarized into a meaningful report; so the DEC would likely contract with CHDU for that anyway, as well as designing the survey questions.

The contractors apparently feel that a mail survey is the way to go, rather than at the point of license sales. I don’t know why, but a clue might be in the survey itself. I did not read it; does it direct questions at inactive hunters? If inactive hunters are of interest in this survey (i.e. Did you quit because bucks are too small…); then only surveying active hunters is not sufficient… If it isn’t about inactive hunters, it may be something else…