Well actually, this thread sounds no different than some of the deer population threads we periodically see. I have no doubt that just like deer, the state has areas of plenty and areas of scarcity. And as is human nature everywhere, we tend to project whatever we see in our individual hunting areas to everywhere across the state.
Yes you can make judgements about what you see in your area, but when you start to roll out those conclusions to apply everywhere, you start losing the real picture. I'm sure that there are stats that show what is happening statewide. If the population is in a serious decline in NYS, I'm sure the DEC is well aware of that. Harvest results should tell that story very reliably. You want the real state-wide scoop, give the DEC a call.
Frankly, our area has been a bit light on turkey populations for quite a few years. But a mere 12 miles south, my son annually has great luck with harvesting and seeing birds. Also a couple of weeks back, I saw a flock of 50 or 60 birds just 16 miles north of me. Apparently no problem there .... lol.