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Alsheimer Rut Prediction 2012


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21 replies to this topic

#1 WNYBuckHunter

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Posted 28 July 2012 - 05:56 PM

I know Charlie hasnt officially done his big reveal yet, but I can spell it out according to his theory, and the D&DH calendar for 2012.

The Autumnal Equinox for this year falls on Sept 22, making the rutting moon October 29.

According to Charlie's theory, we should start seeing light seeking starting around th 24-25th of October. The seeking should escalate to full chase phase around the 30-31st of October. The breeding phase should start the following week, right around the 6-7th of November and should be finished up by the 17-18th, then the second rut should be into seeking/chase phase.

Looks to me like the second half of bow should be killer this year!

#2 MuzzyLoader

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Posted 28 July 2012 - 08:28 PM

I was looking at the calendar yesterday and pretty much came to the same conclusions. Can't wait!!!
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#3 moose

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Posted 28 July 2012 - 08:36 PM

just be in the woods then you are always ready.

#4 NFA-ADK

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Posted 28 July 2012 - 09:00 PM

Nov 3- 13th 2nd vacation! Getting pumped! Sounds on the money to me. Getting sighted for Sep 27th scouting\hunting trip!

#5 sweet old bill

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 03:25 AM

love those woods during the chase period the buck are ready and the doe's are not ready...time to be in the woods all day...
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#6 WNYBuckHunter

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 06:39 AM

Im thinking I will be taking the 7-9th off, giving me 5 full days in a row to hunt, should be peak chase time. Ill be hunting afternoons after work the week days before that.

I have to see how much vaca time I have left. I should have 2 weeks.

#7 growalot

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 07:10 AM

I like the seeking phase....it's during bow and they aren't running full board...nothing more frustrating than siting and watch a parade of buck and doe running in and out around your stand and never slowing down or stopping long enough for a shot...and all I can do is curse the doe under my breath ...telling her to bring him in and then stop running!!

Edited by growalot, 29 July 2012 - 07:12 AM.

If the posts end up with strange words in odd places...My Kindle has a mind of it's own and literary ambitions not of my own....lol


#8 landtracdeerhunter

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 07:28 AM

We like the final phase, Nov 28- Dec7, the big buck harvest stage, lol.

#9 phade

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 08:48 AM

Full chasing by end of October? While I think some of his info is reliable, I question that.

I think everyone has seen a doe in heat that week/weekend and tons of seeking, but full chase (80% activity)? I doubt that.

I think gestational studies seem to be much more reliable to give you the data you need...I'm thinking more along the lines of November 2-7. Full chase imo is shorter than a week.

#10 dave6x6

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 09:29 AM

My thoughts exactly Phade. I am a big Charles A fan. Deer management, property management, deer behavior and of course his photography are just amazing. However i have never found his moon phase predictions to be helpful in hunting decisions. Not saying they haven't hit the mark some times, just saying im not convinced in the science. Gestation and past experience puts me in the woods later in the first week of Nov. for the intense rut activity. The 6th and 7th seem to be my sweet spot, regaurdless of weather conditions. Also not convinced warmth delays mature bucks. Just moves them to different areas and different times to get their groove on.. I will not be looking for mature bucks chasing hard before Holloween.. I will be in the woods and big bucks will be moving some, little bucks will be chasing like fools, but that is really early for the big boys. Hope i shoot a brute on Oct 1st and don't have to worry about it. LOL

Edited by dave6x6, 29 July 2012 - 09:34 AM.


#11 phade

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 10:09 AM

The 5-7 seems to be when I see the big thick neck bucks slobbering (drooling), mouth open, panting, fleming just the epitome of what hunters dream of the night before the hunt. Also seem to get that up to the 11-12th, but that's more or less in between does or one that has not fully cycled.

At that time, I'm not necessarily tageting classic funnels (double inside corners, etc) as mentioned because of getting them to stop is an issue. Many times they are on a doe. I try to find funnels bordering thick bedding areas or just concentrating on the thicker bedding areas. I find when a mature buck gets on a worthwhile doe to dog, he'll bump her in and out of that thick cover. Instead of the doe leading through a traditional funnel and you've got one shot to stop that buck...you've got multiple instances where he busts her out of the cover, she tries to escape and he directs her back in. That process will give you odds as multiple trips in and out of the cover takes place.

#12 phade

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 10:13 AM

My thoughts exactly Phade. I am a big Charles A fan. Deer management, property management, deer behavior and of course his photography are just amazing. However i have never found his moon phase predictions to be helpful in hunting decisions. Not saying they haven't hit the mark some times, just saying im not convinced in the science. Gestation and past experience puts me in the woods later in the first week of Nov. for the intense rut activity. The 6th and 7th seem to be my sweet spot, regaurdless of weather conditions. Also not convinced warmth delays mature bucks. Just moves them to different areas and different times to get their groove on.. I will not be looking for mature bucks chasing hard before Holloween.. I will be in the woods and big bucks will be moving some, little bucks will be chasing like fools, but that is really early for the big boys. Hope i shoot a brute on Oct 1st and don't have to worry about it. LOL


Agree, heat just makes activity more of a nighttime thing. And, you are MUCH more likely to get that warmth end of October and first few days of November as compared to the end of that first week and heading into the second.

To me, that is significant for those looking to take a few days off of work. Now, if you hunt the end of October (that last full week) becuase oyu see larger bucks seeking...you can play that angle. BUT, it is not because they are on a full out chase.

#13 dave6x6

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 02:40 PM

There is no question, I will be in the woods the last week of Oct. It may actually be easier to kill a buck at that time because they will be out checking their turf,(does turf) usually just cruisin' through checking scent, so they often times can be stopped or called into a shot. But i just happen to be lucky enough to have a hot piece of chasing grounds that when it is frantic, it will mean multiple sightings, all day long. It's frantic and never easy to kill but i would rather play the odds and hope that one of the big bucks make a 25yrd mistake. Just don't mess up the does leading up to that time.

#14 WNYBuckHunter

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 07:45 PM

Thats whats gonna be really great about the October 1 opener dave, plenty of time to whack a couple of does without screwing their patterns up much for the rut!

#15 dave6x6

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 08:31 PM

Thats whats gonna be really great about the October 1 opener dave, plenty of time to whack a couple of does without screwing their patterns up much for the rut!

That will be the plan for sure. Don't push things early. If I have a buck or Doe on a feeding pattern then give it a go, otherwise take advantage of some easy access stands and don't screw anything up. I've been lucky enough to shoot 2 good bucks in Oct so we'll see. Of course last year was quite humbleing for me. Best laid plans went out the window and lost nearly the entire season to unforseen family issues. Going to make the most of every sit this year..

Edited by dave6x6, 29 July 2012 - 08:32 PM.


#16 erussell

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Posted 29 July 2012 - 11:43 PM

2nd week of November chase starts here on the land around my house, though last yr I saw bucks fighting and seeking doe during the 1st week of gun during the 3rd week of November. So I love Charles, I have all his books, he is a decent and Godly man but you cant predict what nature is going to do. If I was a betting man I would say be in the woods from Oct 25 to Nov 25 th and you will probably find a buck looking for a doe. Ive even seen bucks chasing doe around and around at the end of December.

Archers see how far away from a target they can get and still hit the bullseye.
Bowhunters see how close they can get and make a clean kill.


 

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#17 phade

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Posted 30 July 2012 - 07:29 AM

2nd week of November chase starts here on the land around my house, though last yr I saw bucks fighting and seeking doe during the 1st week of gun during the 3rd week of November. So I love Charles, I have all his books, he is a decent and Godly man but you cant predict what nature is going to do. If I was a betting man I would say be in the woods from Oct 25 to Nov 25 th and you will probably find a buck looking for a doe. Ive even seen bucks chasing doe around and around at the end of December.


Certainly good advice for those who can take Oct. 25 to November 25 off. My big issue with these "charts" is that most guys use it to determine their 1,2, 3, 4, or 5 days off of work. I'm more likely to take November 5-12 off every year than October, assuming I can at least get out on a weekend or maybe before or after work during that last week in October. You can legit argue that the final OCtober week is primo, but from an odds perspective, more book bucks are taken during that week in November than October. When you only have a few days of vaca, you need to play the odds.

#18 dave6x6

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Posted 30 July 2012 - 04:52 PM

Erussell, are you saying the chase phase starts the second week in Nov. every year on your property?? Bucks fighting is not really an indication of a chase phase. Bucks will begin to spar as soon as their antlers harden, even sooner in some cases. It is very common to see some degree of fighting all archery season and into gun as well. I'm not saying this to be snarky, but some people have never really seen a full on chase phase. The kind where the biggest bucks in the woods are dictating the action. Last year and most years, the little guys can fool hunters into thinking were in the "chase Phase" when in reality the big boys know it's just not time. This is really just the seeking phase but the horny little buggers just don't know it yet. On my hunting land, there is no mistaking the real chase phase. It is all day intensity, Mature Bucks, with the 1.5 and 2.5 staying clear. And it almost always falls in the middle-late first week in Nov...

Edited by dave6x6, 30 July 2012 - 05:24 PM.


#19 MuzzyLoader

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 05:30 PM

Charlie told me years ago... the #1 date in NYS for does being bred is 11/11. I've never forgotten that.
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#20 erussell

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 10:42 PM

Erussell, are you saying the chase phase starts the second week in Nov. every year on your property?? Bucks fighting is not really an indication of a chase phase. Bucks will begin to spar as soon as their antlers harden, even sooner in some cases. It is very common to see some degree of fighting all archery season and into gun as well. I'm not saying this to be snarky, but some people have never really seen a full on chase phase. The kind where the biggest bucks in the woods are dictating the action. Last year and most years, the little guys can fool hunters into thinking were in the "chase Phase" when in reality the big boys know it's just not time. This is really just the seeking phase but the horny little buggers just don't know it yet. On my hunting land, there is no mistaking the real chase phase. It is all day intensity, Mature Bucks, with the 1.5 and 2.5 staying clear. And it almost always falls in the middle-late first week in Nov...



All I can say is Its been like clock work every yr for the last ten yrs without fail, If I go up and get in my stand on the first monday of the 2nd week of November. Without fail I will have up to 3 or 4 bucks chasing doe around and around the hill. This can last for up to a week. Start of the week it is usually small bucks tword the end the big boys join in. I have seen fighting during this time also which was spectacular to watch. Actually watched a decent four point kick the snot out of a larger racked 8 point. It was an MMA grudge match, blood and all, 8 point limped off with the four taking the doe off in the other direction. Now if I go to the other side of the river I dont even see bucks chasing doe around till the third week of Novemeber so I dont know what to tell you. All I know is I once took oct 28th thru Nov 1st off to hunt and it was crickets for me. Also Ive been hunting for 26 yrs around here and it has always varied depending on what hill you hunt. I have hunted a whole season one time just 3 miles from where I do now and never saw any rut. Bucks feeding side by side in the field all season long and yet come spring there were fawns so who knows. I dont put to much stock in predicting the unpredictable. Like I said I love the guy, Ive talked to him before and he seems to be a standup guy but I dont put any stock in his predictions.

Edited by erussell, 31 July 2012 - 10:50 PM.

Archers see how far away from a target they can get and still hit the bullseye.
Bowhunters see how close they can get and make a clean kill.


 

"I will remain what I am until I die, a hunter, and when there are no buffalo or other game I will send my children to hunt and live on prairie mice"

Sitting Bull

 

 

“The only grain we feed them is either a 130- or a 150-grain bullet,” Shane Benoit





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