Alsheimer's Predictions

[sampotter]

I've been a pretty faithful believer in Alsheimer's theory although I will confess- last year didn't seem to work out according to plan. However, the 10/29 rutting moon coincided with Superstorm Sandy and screwy weather, which certainly could have messed things up. I didn't see much action from the stand but I did hit and kill a decent 8 point with my truck on Halloween night. To further support Alsheimer's theory, the rut action in the Adirondacks was very intense at the end of November, about 30 days after the rutting moon (does cycle in 28 day intervals, so does not bred earlier would be in heat again). As a result I was lucky enough to be able to kill my biggest ADK buck on Nov. 28th. However, the best evidence I've seen were the numerous does out in hayfields this past weekend, presumably with new fawns (I saw one fawn for sure and saw some big, full udders on several does). If you do the math the fawns would have been conceived during the end of October/ beginning of November (200 day gestation). The moral of the story- although I didn't see the rutting activity I was hoping for at the very end of October the does still got bred...

[phade]

I used to believe in his theory and projections more, but as time goes on, I have tempered that belief. Certainly some general guidelines can be formed. I do think it is useful for people who want to try to project vacation time requests as it gives info to consider.

[dbHunterNY]

he knows his stuff... not bullet proof but still good info.  if you haven't read his book, Strategies for Whitetails, then you should.

[cwhite]

I have always seen the most activity the second and third week of November. Not saying I disagree with the moon theory, but I think it is more reliable in areas with optimal conditions and buck/doe ratio.

[NFA-ADK]

His book on Adirondack deer hunting has been the bible in my camp since 1988.  To say he is knowledgeable would be an understatement, personally I feel he is unmatched in his field...  I try to hunt anytime from Nov 7 week on...(My main hunting trip ADK rifle, I have come to the conclusion this is why I am on this planet... lol  Just can not think about anything else...)  Moon or weather predictions do not matter to me as traditionally this is peak rut, that week or two I will be stalking deer the entire day light hours...  As much as I like to hunt the peak rut, I debate going a week or two later in the season for tracking snow as this is my best method for finding bucks on the move.  Super storm Sandy threw a wrench into last years hunt causing me to hunt solo for 13 days, at least one other hunter was with me for the first four days.  Too much snow cut my trip short as my tires were not working in the 8 + inches on the ground.

 

Typically I hunt from Nov 6th - 16th or 23rd depending on work/vacation time.  Again I debate going a week or two later just for tracking snow...  If I had my way I would hunt from Nov 5th till the end...  But then I would need a new job... 

 

Wanted:  Computer repair/network tech job for setting up remote camera's to watch wildlife, willing to work on farm equipment and farm.  Willing to travel, lol...  Willing to relocate as long as deer are present...  Ahh to dream... 

 

[josephmrtn]

I dont bother with predictions... i just go and hunt like crazy... learned that from Greg Gutshchow (NAHC) he said he will ALWAYS bet on the guy who spends more time in the woods rather than the guy with calls/scents predictions ect ect ect...

[PREDATE]

Joe, I agree about the predictions.

 Calls and/or scents are a tool bag essential.IMO

 

 

I wouldn't care for having to travel to hunt. I'd go nuts! I'm out there every chance I get. Those who do have to plan vacation days to travel are going on nothing more than predictions and experience. This is where an "experts" general opinion could come in handy.

After all, they're the "experts"! I'm most content in being a foot soldier!!!

 

[sampotter]

I dont bother with predictions... i just go and hunt like crazy... learned that from Greg Gutshchow (NAHC) he said he will ALWAYS bet on the guy who spends more time in the woods rather than the guy with calls/scents predictions ect ect ect...

 

 

I prefer to hunt smarter, not harder myself. Deer don't respond well to pressure, so I try to focus on doing it right every time.

 

As far as the predictions go- is it just a coincidence that my crop crew mowed up over 20 fawns at the end of May, 200 days after Alsheimer's predicted peak breeding during the 1st week of November?

[gjs4]

There's charlie, there's Bill Vale, there's Jeff Murray...

 

The moon acts like an accelerator but will not trump pressure or weather. 

 

All three are rather similar in their predictions this year....and there will be some breeding early OCT

 

I thought I got the moon deal after both Charlies and Jeffs books- Vales is what finally nailed it in my head .... and its so often overlooked- the moon may turn them on but if you dont have the first doe or two in; youlll miss that TV quality crazed chasing like we all hope for....and some big bucks just dont breed

[NFA-ADK]

Hoping to get the Month of November off this year from the 6th on.  See how well that goes over at work...  This year I will have snow tires and chains so I do not have to leave if we get over a foot of snow like last year.  I have 3-4 groups of doe patterned and 3 nice bucks in the area that I hope made it through last year.  I tend to key on the doe patterns unless I find a buck track, then I follow and try ambush or stalking depending on circumstances.  Snow allows me tracking if present and is so exciting to have the deer in front of you all day playing cat and mouse I am trying to get my 1st "tracked deer" under my belt this year and my 3rd ADK buck.  Might even get my first bow kill this year, again if lucky...  Hoping for an early Frost on LI this year as I am hesitant to go hunting on LI with all the Lyme ticks in the area until that happens.  Sep 27th in the ADK is fun scouting but extremely hard to still hunt with a bow, just too much growth still present at that time.  Found a good ambush spot to try this year, just hope the bucks are still frequenting the area!!!

[josephmrtn]

I prefer to hunt smarter, not harder myself. Deer don't respond well to pressure, so I try to focus on doing it right every time.

 

As far as the predictions go- is it just a coincidence that my crop crew mowed up over 20 fawns at the end of May, 200 days after Alsheimer's predicted peak breeding during the 1st week of November?

I do too but I have several hundred acres to hunt so i have plenty of land... i can just hunt a different spot every evening...

20?!?! yikes you guys must do a LOT of hay!!! I didnt even hit one this yr and i do almost ALL of our mowing

[agross]

I was a staunch believer in Charlie. Still am and he has the best show on the TV out there. But that being sad the last 2 years I have exclusively hunted bow on the hottest weekend he predicted SKUNKED.

This year im going back to my old standby of November 7,8,9,10,11 If the weekend falls on these days im going and 2013 is looking perfect.

Still gonna watch Charlie and learn but im going back to my old lucky days where I have always seen the best buck activity. (Now I know everything is relevant to where you hunt. His predictions may have been spot on and the hot do could have been across the street in my neighbors property but I have to try my lucky weekend again.)

[Jeremy K]

If its hunting season and im not busy  then ill be in my treestand , regardless of what the moon is doing.

[Terry]

I believe there is some accuracy in his predictions, but like others have said I hunt every chance I get.<br /><br />I do have his "Hunting Whitetails by the Moon" book. I would recommend it to anyone interested in his theories.

Edited July 16, 2013 by troutfisher13111

[phade]

There's charlie, there's Bill Vale, there's Jeff Murray...

 

The moon acts like an accelerator but will not trump pressure or weather. 

 

All three are rather similar in their predictions this year....and there will be some breeding early OCT

 

I thought I got the moon deal after both Charlies and Jeffs books- Vales is what finally nailed it in my head .... and its so often overlooked- the moon may turn them on but if you dont have the first doe or two in; youlll miss that TV quality crazed chasing like we all hope for....and some big bucks just dont breed

 

So true.