Rut predictions

[gjs4]

Honestly...., I think there's a lot of hunters who have no idea what the chasing phase really is.

Or the "rut" itself. Peak breeding is almost always (scientifically) around the 10th.... Which means this is the worst time to be in the woods for deer sightings based on statistics.

Drury nailed it with saying the varying moon phases are what makes some feel the right changes time each year. So many variables. Another great comment made lately was based on how hunters have a tendency to build lifelong strategies from a single or limited occurrence instance(s).

[wooly]

Or the "rut" itself. Peak breeding is almost always (scientifically) around the 10th.... Which means this is the worst time to be in the woods for deer sightings based on statistics.

 

This is also VERY true,(and a deceiving quote BTW) but it's gonna be a real tough sell to some since I don't have any #'s to back it up.

How can the proverbial "best" time of the year be the "worst" as well...

Hit or miss it by a few hours and you'll hold in your hands the all the secrets of the mighty whitey without ever learning a thing more than what you saw........ or didn't see.

I don't even know how else to put it...

[Buckstopshere]

This is also VERY true,(and a deceiving quote BTW) but it's gonna be a real tough sell to some since I don't have any #'s to back it up.

How can the proverbial "best" time of the year be the "worst" as well...

Hit or miss it by a few hours and you'll hold in your hands the all the secrets of the mighty whitey without ever learning a thing more than what you saw........ or didn't see.

I don't even know how else to put it...

 

How did some arrive at the premise that the 10th of November is the peak of the rut?

 

Statistics...averaging, blending years.

 

Many of these serious students of whitetail science fall back on the faulty, pseudo-, junk-science of fetal backdating to determine this silly mythical date.

 

[wooly]

How did some arrive at the premise that the 10th of November is the peak of the rut?

 

Statistics...averaging, blending years.

 

Many of these serious students of whitetail science fall back on the faulty, pseudo-, junk-science of fetal backdating to determine this silly mythical date.

 

 

I never pin pointed an actual date simply because I can't from one year to the next.

When bucks lock down with their doe, (which is the time period I was talking about) it can happen in a matter of hours or minutes if you're there to witness it.

The chasing will lead right into the lockdown in no time flat... often within a few hours of a hot doe getting corralled into a thicket.

If you're not seeing it, then you may think you missed it completely, or it never happened.

 

When I hear guys say the rut sucked last year, it really didn't.

It happens the same way every year but if you don't see it, you wouldn't believe it.

I've been very fortunate to witness this circus of rutting activity for several years in a row now to intimately understand how many of these rut phases blend into the next.

 

It's certainly not the same dates around the state for each phase, but I got a pretty good understanding how things will unfold around here come "THE RUT"!

[nyslowhand]

This is what I was trying to point out. By definition, the rut has 3 phases and it does culminate with the breeding or tending. Another little glitch is that there is no starter's pistol going off & all does immediately go into estrus at the exact same time. This all depends on the buck to doe ratio, just how much & far a buck will roam looking for subsequent does to service. Thus giving mini-cycles within each of the early, main &/or late ruts. I'd be a fool to think I could pinpoint an exact date or even a couple day range to say this was the rut.

 

Wooly, you for one can appreciate the chasing phase. Best time to set the bow aside & enjoy the show or get the camera out.

 

Buckstopshere, trying to sway my opinion..? LOL. 11/11/14 was when I got my buck last year. Wasn't that a ~75deg day too? Which goes against all logic, assuming they'd be more nocturnal during a heat wave!?! Just goes to show your there isn't a lot of predictable logic or pure science going on with the rut. Sure, some of both involved, but they are wild animals and each has their own distinct personality or tendencies. This is why I have a problem with Alsheimer marketing his observations as a predictable science. Just out of curiosity, how does that out of state sightings data you keep correlate to your own observations. God knows I've gotten texts and read posts saying "it's on" and look around from my tree stand and see nothing...WTH!?!

[Buckstopshere]

I never pin pointed an actual date simply because I can't from one year to the next.

When bucks lock down with their doe, (which is the time period I was talking about) it can happen in a matter of hours or minutes if you're there to witness it.

The chasing will lead right into the lockdown in no time flat... often within a few hours of a hot doe getting corralled into a thicket.

If you're not seeing it, then you may think you missed it completely, or it never happened.

 

When I hear guys say the rut sucked last year, it really didn't.

It happens the same way every year but if you don't see it, you wouldn't believe it.

I've been very fortunate to witness this circus of rutting activity for several years in a row now to intimately understand how many of these rut phases blend into the next.

 

It's certainly not the same dates around the state for each phase, but I got a pretty good understanding how things will unfold around here come "THE RUT"!

 

Right. But the converse of your sentence above, "It happens the same way every year but if you don't see it, you wouldn't believe it," is even a bit more true. ;0)

 

And that is "if you hadn't believed it, you wouldn't have seen it." We have to know what we are looking at to see it. 

 

Last year I watched four bucks surround a doe in the middle of an open goldenrod field for an hour, about 9 am on 11/10/14. None of them were shooters for me that day, but it was interesting to watch how the dominant buck kept the other three away from her. All of a sudden four other does materialized...they had been bedded next to the estrous doe and came my way...only three got past me that day. ;0) I arrowed one doe, dressed her out and dragged her back to the field edge where I had observed the bucks with the locked down doe. They were still there! Running deer and breaking sticks is nothing new or surprising to them during the rut.  They never knew I was there because the wind was good the whole time. 

[Buckstopshere]

This is what I was trying to point out. By definition, the rut has 3 phases and it does culminate with the breeding or tending. Another little glitch is that there is no starter's pistol going off & all does immediately go into estrus at the exact same time. This all depends on the buck to doe ratio, just how much & far a buck will roam looking for subsequent does to service. Thus giving mini-cycles within each of the early, main &/or late ruts. I'd be a fool to think I could pinpoint an exact date or even a couple day range to say this was the rut.

 

Wooly, you for one can appreciate the chasing phase. Best time to set the bow aside & enjoy the show or get the camera out.

 

Buckstopshere, trying to sway my opinion..? LOL. 11/11/14 was when I got my buck last year. Wasn't that a ~75deg day too? Which goes against all logic, assuming they'd be more nocturnal during a heat wave!?! Just goes to show your there isn't a lot of predictable logic or pure science going on with the rut. Sure, some of both involved, but they are wild animals and each has their own distinct personality or tendencies. This is why I have a problem with Alsheimer marketing his observations as a predictable science. Just out of curiosity, how does that out of state sightings data you keep correlate to your own observations. God knows I've gotten texts and read posts saying "it's on" and look around from my tree stand and see nothing...WTH!?!

My compilation of out-of-state message boards is quite revealing and correlates perfectly with my own local observations...as long as the states are in the Northeast and the Midwest. Rut timing varies as you know in other states as we go south...so I don't use the Southern message boards except for interesting descriptions of what hunters believe they see. Charlie A. an I have known each other for a long time (both of us spoke at a deer hunting seminar in Hornell back in 1986 (I think that was the date, he was the "shotgun hunter" and I spoke as the bow hunter.) And I agree with a lot more of what he says than where we differ. But on some years he has called it a late rut, when in fact it was an early rut that year. But most years he is spot on with his and Wayne LaRouche's predictions.

[WNYBuckHunter]

GPS collar studies. Google them. There have been quite a few in recent years, in various areas of the country, and they always come up with the same conclusion about the moon. It has no effect.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

If you have to read/listen for someone else to tell you whats going on in your area you are already in a world of hurt. Never give any of that rut crap much time. Know the animals you hunt and you will be just fine.

[Buckstopshere]

GPS collar studies. Google them. There have been quite a few in recent years, in various areas of the country, and they always come up with the same conclusion about the moon. It has no effect.

 

Which links? Which studies? Thanks for the suggestion. In this recent study, the moon effects us.

 

http://science.time.com/2013/07/25/how-the-moon-messes-with-your-sleep/

[WNYBuckHunter]

Which links? Which studies? Thanks for the suggestion. In this recent study, the moon effects us.

 

http://science.time.com/2013/07/25/how-the-moon-messes-with-your-sleep/

 

Lets start with this one, actually not GPS based, but certainly more scientific than moon voodoo

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/no-link-between-moon-phase-and-rut-peak

 

Now for some GPS based studies.

 

http://naturalpursuitoutdoors.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-gps-research-reveals-buck-movement.html?fb_action_ids=855005391178804&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=[673156592762295]&action_type_map=[%22og.likes%22]&action_ref_map=[]

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/is-the-lockdown-phase-a-myth

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/what-triggers-the-whitetail-rut

 

As I suggested, do some Google searches, lots of info out there if you look.

 

https://www.google.com/#safe=off&q=whitetail+gps+study

 

 

BTW, the link you posted has nothing to do with the subject at hand.

[phade]

People are very passionate about the rut and what they believe it to be. Life is really about 10% education, 20% exposure, and 70% experience. That rule tends to hold true most of the time. This is one situation where I believe it's not really the case, and is why there is so much disconnect. It's like trying to sell that the earth is round and not flat, but not having anyway to prove it back in the day in a way people could grasp.

 

What hunters see is such a limited scope. Chasing and breeding in one spot might be heavy one evening whereas 1/8th mile away a hunter might not see a thing, but returns to that spot the next day and sees the chasing and breeding, some of which might be deer the other hunter saw the evening before. Our ability to perceive and grasp the components of the rut are very limited and I think stepping away from the weight given to personal experiences, focusing on the science and deer behaviors that are proven and largely accepted, and mixing in the factors that can impact success is really where we should be focused. Hunters still won't be able to "grasp" it, but they'll be better prepared to hunt this time period. We still need to include personal experiences, but it shouldn't be the lone driving factor.

 

The biggest buck I have ever seen on the hoof was pushing a doe and a bb around the mid-second week of November in 75 degrees. Moog was even wearing adidas track pants in the stand that day because it was so hot. Conventional wisdom, experience, and science say deer won't be moving in daylight like that in such weather, and for the most part, its true. But not always.

 

That's why I really try to take at least ten days off to hunt that time period in the first half of Nov. because being in the stand during that time and hunting wisely will often net opportunities if the hunter is smart. Even better if I get two weeks. That usually nets me the chance to be in the woods when I want to be (when speaking to the rut specifically), so I can have a chance at getting in the mix with A. the first hot doe, B. heavy seeking that presents shots and not just "appearances" from the stands, and C. the party situations (multiple bucks around due to a hot doe who has parked herself in a small area).

Edited August 25, 2015 by phade

[moog5050]

 

 

The biggest buck I have ever seen on the hoof was pushing a doe and a bb around the mid-second week of November in 75 degrees. Moog was even wearing adidas track pants in the stand that day because it was so hot.

 

Don't give away all my secrets!  I think I was sporting my crocs too.  Good thing you were tagged out or it would have been an ugly drag.

[Buckstopshere]

Don't give away all my secrets!  I think I was sporting my crocs too.  Good thing you were tagged out or it would have been an ugly drag.

 

Where are the pictures? I for one want to see an ugly drag. Not that I was ever on one.

[Buckstopshere]

People are very passionate about the rut and what they believe it to be. Life is really about 10% education, 20% exposure, and 70% experience. That rule tends to hold true most of the time. This is one situation where I believe it's not really the case, and is why there is so much disconnect. It's like trying to sell that the earth is round and not flat, but not having anyway to prove it back in the day in a way people could grasp.

 

What hunters see is such a limited scope. Chasing and breeding in one spot might be heavy one evening whereas 1/8th mile away a hunter might not see a thing, but returns to that spot the next day and sees the chasing and breeding, some of which might be deer the other hunter saw the evening before. Our ability to perceive and grasp the components of the rut are very limited and I think stepping away from the weight given to personal experiences, focusing on the science and deer behaviors that are proven and largely accepted, and mixing in the factors that can impact success is really where we should be focused. Hunters still won't be able to "grasp" it, but they'll be better prepared to hunt this time period. We still need to include personal experiences, but it shouldn't be the lone driving factor.

 

The biggest buck I have ever seen on the hoof was pushing a doe and a bb around the mid-second week of November in 75 degrees. Moog was even wearing adidas track pants in the stand that day because it was so hot. Conventional wisdom, experience, and science say deer won't be moving in daylight like that in such weather, and for the most part, its true. But not always.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good points, except for the ugly part with some guy wearing Adidas warmups. 

 

That's why I really try to take at least ten days off to hunt that time period in the first half of Nov. because being in the stand during that time and hunting wisely will often net opportunities if the hunter is smart. Even better if I get two weeks. That usually nets me the chance to be in the woods when I want to be (when speaking to the rut specifically), so I can have a chance at getting in the mix with A. the first hot doe, B. heavy seeking that presents shots and not just "appearances" from the stands, and C. the party situations (multiple bucks around due to a hot doe who has parked herself in a small area).

 

[Buckstopshere]

Lets start with this one, actually not GPS based, but certainly more scientific than moon voodoo

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/no-link-between-moon-phase-and-rut-peak

 

Now for some GPS based studies.

 

http://naturalpursuitoutdoors.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-gps-research-reveals-buck-movement.html?fb_action_ids=855005391178804&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=[673156592762295]&action_type_map=[%22og.likes%22]&action_ref_map=[]

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/is-the-lockdown-phase-a-myth

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/what-triggers-the-whitetail-rut

 

As I suggested, do some Google searches, lots of info out there if you look.

 

https://www.google.com/#safe=off&q=whitetail+gps+study

 

 

 

 

 

BTW, the link you posted has nothing to do with the subject at hand.

 

Thanks for all the links. It will take me a bit of time to wade through them. But I beg your pardon, the link I posted above has everything to do with the subject at hand. If the moon effects you and I, now scientifically proven, then why not deer too?

 

[Buckstopshere]

Lets start with this one, actually not GPS based, but certainly more scientific than moon voodoo

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/no-link-between-moon-phase-and-rut-peak

 

Now for some GPS based studies.

 

http://naturalpursuitoutdoors.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-gps-research-reveals-buck-movement.html?fb_action_ids=855005391178804&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=[673156592762295]&action_type_map=[%22og.likes%22]&action_ref_map=[]

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/is-the-lockdown-phase-a-myth

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/what-triggers-the-whitetail-rut

 

As I suggested, do some Google searches, lots of info out there if you look.

 

https://www.google.com/#safe=off&q=whitetail+gps+study

 

 

 

The first link, the QDM link is old and simply averaging rut dates. QDMA does great things, but I beg to differ on the mashing of all the rut data into averages. It proves nothing. Also, Joe Hamilton, the founder of QDM had one of the first fetal measuring studies. I do not think that measuring fetuses and backdating them to find the date of the prior rut is a valid scientific methodology because of the variance between fetal measuring studies and the lack of correlation between them for starters. So we have two trains running, one postulates that the rut is significantly influenced by the moon. The other measures dead fetuses and its premise is that the rut occurs every year at the same time. But the averaging of dates does not tell us anything and the weight of evidence of when the rut pops in different weeks proves that the QDMA amalgamation only leads us into darkness and ignorance.

 

BTW, the link you posted has nothing to do with the subject at hand.

 

[Buckstopshere]

Lets start with this one, actually not GPS based, but certainly more scientific than moon voodoo

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/no-link-between-moon-phase-and-rut-peak

 

Now for some GPS based studies.

 

http://naturalpursuitoutdoors.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-gps-research-reveals-buck-movement.html?fb_action_ids=855005391178804&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=[673156592762295]&action_type_map=[%22og.likes%22]&action_ref_map=[]

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/is-the-lockdown-phase-a-myth

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/what-triggers-the-whitetail-rut

 

As I suggested, do some Google searches, lots of info out there if you look.

 

https://www.google.com/#safe=off&q=whitetail+gps+study

 

 

The GPS link was quite parochial.

 

"Concerning rut movement, Olson used a previous PGC study to define the three stages of rut. According to that study, 80% of does are bred during the month of November. Thus, he defined Oct. 1-31 as pre-rut, Nov. 1-30 as rut, and Dec. 1-31as post-rut."

 

I am quite familar with the "old PGC study." What a bunch of crap. That study was used to "allow bucks to breed undisturbed between the bow and rifle seasons" to parapharase. That is why Pa. had a two week hiatus between the bow and gun season...to let the deer breed. What a bunch of road apples. I hope the other links you provided are more enlightening.

 

BTW, the link you posted has nothing to do with the subject at hand.

 

[Buckstopshere]

Lets start with this one, actually not GPS based, but certainly more scientific than moon voodoo

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/no-link-between-moon-phase-and-rut-peak

 

Now for some GPS based studies.

 

http://naturalpursuitoutdoors.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-gps-research-reveals-buck-movement.html?fb_action_ids=855005391178804&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=[673156592762295]&action_type_map=[%22og.likes%22]&action_ref_map=[]

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/is-the-lockdown-phase-a-myth

 

https://www.qdma.com/articles/what-triggers-the-whitetail-rut

 

As I suggested, do some Google searches, lots of info out there if you look.

 

https://www.google.com/#safe=off&q=whitetail+gps+study

 

 

The second GPS link was too hard to read through, when they don't know the difference between the October lull and Lockdown. Look, those are a priori concepts for deer hunters...sorry. Maybe the third one is better.

 

 

BTW, the link you posted has nothing to do with the subject at hand.

 

[Buckstopshere]

The conclusions of the GPS studies are oversold. Considering the cost and manpower, the actual data sample is too small. GPS studies are not the Holy Grail of wildlife research, but only another tool at best. Here is a hint: study the problems with GPS studies, then you will understand why they have such a small and suspect data set.

[gjs4]

What I laugh at most is who would have these numbers? The DEC who claims they only relieve 40% of reported harvest? Lol

Just google whitetail rut dates- miller, ozaga, kroll

I am at a loss as to how so many KNOW the rut takes place at different times in different areas. Trying to play nice- but don't you realiZe how micro spectrum ones observations are? I could have a hot doe in a bedding area on my ground for 2-3 days in September (and yes folks that does happen)..... But if I had the ignorant tenacity to say the rut was early.... Or if I based a pair of 1.5s a doe and saying "it's on"...

Think we need to go back to The old -God gave us two ears, two eyes and one mouth speech....but then again we have 10 fingers and forum so everyone is an expert now

[Chef]

I haven't read a "wrong" reply to this thread yet.

I am however skeptical when I hear someone say bucks are "chasing" in their area.

Honestly...., I think there's a lot of hunters who have no idea what the chasing phase really is.

I have truly seen what I would call chasing once and it was a old basket 8 pt chasing a group of does around a apple orchard his neck was swollen as hell and he was grunting at them the entire time

[WNYBuckHunter]

The conclusions of the GPS studies are oversold. Considering the cost and manpower, the actual data sample is too small. GPS studies are not the Holy Grail of wildlife research, but only another tool at best. Here is a hint: study the problems with GPS studies, then you will understand why they have such a small and suspect data set.

 

Are you serious? Look, if you want to look as studies that track deer movement every 15 minutes for 365 days and plot them out to show when they are moving, where they are going, etc and say its inconclusive, well, I dont know what to tell you. There are plenty of other studies out there, I linked a few.

 

Cost and manpower are getting smaller by the day, there are more studies running right now. Id be willing to put money on the conclusions they draw.

 

I get why you refuse to see the light, its because you write about and sell your moon theory, so you have to stick by your guns. Its all good. Ill stick to looking at verifiable evidence.

[buckordoe]

Im taking two 3 day session off so I don't F it up.

 

October 28-31 and nov6-9 BOOM

[Buckstopshere]

What I laugh at most is who would have these numbers? The DEC who claims they only relieve 40% of reported harvest? Lol

Just google whitetail rut dates- miller, ozaga, kroll

I am at a loss as to how so many KNOW the rut takes place at different times in different areas. Trying to play nice- but don't you realiZe how micro spectrum ones observations are? I could have a hot doe in a bedding area on my ground for 2-3 days in September (and yes folks that does happen)..... But if I had the ignorant tenacity to say the rut was early.... Or if I based a pair of 1.5s a doe and saying "it's on"...

Think we need to go back to The old -God gave us two ears, two eyes and one mouth speech....but then again we have 10 fingers and forum so everyone is an expert now

I have all of Kroll's and most of Ozaga's books, lots of knowledge. I have been reading Ozaga's scientific reports in the JWM for 25 years. Have you read Kroll's book on how the moon influences the rut?

 

I'm afraid that some of those who work for the DEC and other government agencies tend to look down on the understandings of those of us who are objective and not subject to the whims and sways of government. There are a lot of serious deer hunters whose observations and understandings of the woods may even transcend the knowledge of some of those who take a few courses on wildlife management at a school and mistakenly think they know everything because they logged a couple courses. A degree in Wildlife Management, while generally laudatory really needs temper in the real woods.

 

I took a number of Chemistry, Biology, Zoology, Anthropology and Astronomy classes in college to name a few, but those college credits certainly do not give me any right to beat my chest and think that I know more than anyone else.  I hope I am playing fair.

 

When the rut in the Northeast and Midwest peaks, the internet message boards light up. I know that it is only anecdotal. But look at the hundreds of serious hunters all over the states...New York, Pa., Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Kansas. They jump on the hunting message boards and describe in emotional detail their experiences of watching the rut unfold. Are some mistaken? Undoubtedly, but as they do not write these reports on September or December they confirm the rut we experience each year, overall.  They hone in on the rut because they are serious in reporting what they experience, hunting.