Al Bundy

New York state is working on their own test kit in a lab in Albany. This should help testing, once ready. I agree with Biz, although I don't think more people in the US/westchester have this, yet. I think many in china had and were not counted among the total numbers. I have been using number of health care workers in China who were infected and subsequently passed away to get an idea of death rate. I feel these numbers are closer to accurate. One account is 6 of 1716 passed away. This is .35 % death rate with rounding.. Not 3.5%... POINT 35 percent... less than half a percent. Ive also seen 18 of 3000 (roughly) which is about .6 percent. Even if more were infected and more died than reported, that rate is still fairly low. These numbers seem much better than the 2-3% death rate that is somewhat accepted. Can it be with medical attention the death rate is much lower? Maybe...Is it that the other numbers like 80K infected are wayyyyyy off? Maybe.. I hope and think so.

Quarantine right now would not be a bad thing. Snow geese should be around and I'm hunting this coming weekend and the following, at least. Quarantine in April = smelting, fishing. May = turkey. Mrs Bundy travels usually weekly within the US for work. Not sure how her job will play out. Things are starting to get interesting.

This is not good news. But not unexpected I guess. https://www.kcra.com/article/new-case-of-coronavirus-not-tied-to-cruise-ship-confirmed-in-northern-california/31123681

I can see NYC on some type of lockdown, if this lunacy continues. Early on in this thread, I pointed out condolences for those whom are affected by this. Laugh or cry.. take your pick. Ill take laugh. Crappyice if you need to borrow a razor.. I think you are still good for some time though. I am thinking about altering my life slightly for this. Thinking to fire up my smoker and keep a good sized stash of jerky, snack sticks, etc on hand. I am even thinking this may be an over reaction still but Ill eat it anyway. Despite wandering around Chinatown last weekend, grabbing food, getting a haircut, grocery shopping.. I am alive and well. Virus has not struck me down. Most times I go there I see at least a handful of people wearing masks, normally. This last time I did not see one person wearing a mask. The reverse of what I expected. Im guessing nobody wants to be associated with being ill, so no mask.

Without hesitation NO. NO NO NO. A bunch of reasons. 1) From reading various places, its very similar to 2003 virus. 2) Scientists know there are similar Corona viruses around that are not manufactured. 3) Does not make logical sense. Seriously. Think about it. IF IF the government wanted a virus, the SARS from 2003 had a high mortality rate and could be used. There are other illnesses available that I suspect would work with less suspicion and less effort. Also the government lifted the one child policy some years ago. Makes no sense to lift this and engineer a virus to counteract this. My opinion...

Brother from another mother?

Found this fairly scary info. Might help to explain why this is spreading so quickly. https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext Basically discussing how long different virus strains could live on various surfaces and temp. This is an eye opener but two things. I don't know how this compares with Flu strain A or B. Also its not showing data for the new strain that is going around, SARS-CoV-2 . Its showing Sars-CoV which I think is the pre-cursor from 2003. Either way.. scary how long these virus remain active.

Found this about the drug that MIGHT help. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir

@G-Man : Can you post the link where you found the virus can live 27 days? Thanks. Some food for thought. Currently there are roughly 35 cases in the US right now. Compare this to the flu. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/flu-season-2020-what-to-know ..."n total, there have been at least 9.7 million cases of the flu, at least 87,000 flu-related hospitalization, and up to 12,000 deaths, according to the CDC" . I'm not overly concerned about getting flu and am applying the same thought process to the corona virus. Still not (yet) time to panic..

I have not changed my daily routine (yet) . My level of concern has increased some though the last few days. Looks like the virus is starting to grab a toehold outside china. Some of my concern stems from the wide range of death rate I calculate. Not sure what to make of that, but most numbers suggest a high death rate. A bit disconcerting.

As mentioned travel insurance. I never buy this, but I would seriously consider it if I were you for this specific purpose. Read the fine print of course. If no insurance and Corona is running rampant when its time to cast the lines off, you can always stay ashore. Yes it sucks losing your cash but choose this option knowing you may lose it. You could also plan that the ship may be stuck somewhere for a few weeks and tack that onto your "vacation" time. You could also try and speak to whomever you book through and ask about this exact scenario. Can they offer a credit for later cruise? Cant hurt to ask. I'm not sure I would let hysteria dictate my actions like some are. Long ways to go to even match the numbers of a normal flu year. Even if the numbers are under reported, which I myself think they are.

Y crazy story. I would have opted for my gun, not the cross bow.

I have one and it was PAINFUL. Multiple repeated bee stings.. Just dont get one in Chinese or some other language. True story.. Out at a club one night a hot latina was dancing around and I could see tat in Chinese on her back/neck/shoulder area. I talked to her about it and she told me it said "Fear No Man". What it actually translated to was "Funeral Man" ....

Oh man.. no more work today for me. Im daydreaming Hard.. This makes me think of the following song:

Lots and lots of bikes in California. EVERYONE split lanes at speed. Amazing. I had been splitting lanes one day on a major highway. I got to clear area on the highway and hit the gas. Kicking back on my Vulcan at about 90, a motorcycle cop pulled up next to me, in my lane no less. He had a slight grin on his face so I figured I was OK. He raised and lowered his hand a few times, saying slow down. Let off the gas back down to something like 70-75 and he left me in the dust. He was MOVING...

I used to ride a 650 Vulcan in Silicon Valley. I think I was addicted to the rush when Asian women would suddenly do a no signal turn into your lane. Lost count number of times that happened at speed. Closest I came to buying the farm once with that scenario. Legally splitting lanes was something also. Those were the days...

Interesting read here about hand sanitizers being a bad thing. Also interesting quote in there stating most people get flu from inhaling, not touching something. https://www.gq.com/story/the-case-against-hand-sanitizer Another here stating hand sanitizer not as effective as thought for Flu strain A. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/09/hand-sanitizer-shown-less-effective-hand-washing-against-flu One could wonder how many people are using this correctly and if in fact its creating more issues than resolving.

One more interesting tidbit this one from the NY Times : https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html ...."SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6 percent, and about 2 percent of those reported to have been infected with the new coronavirus have died." Another source: https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-scientists-do-and-don-t-know-about-wuhan-coronavirus-so-far ...."The coronavirus "is less deadly than SARS or MERS, but it is more contagious," Buzyn said in a press conference Tuesday." ..."In the United States, the mortality rate among people infected with influenza is about 0.13 percent, the Centers for Disease Control has calculated." I for some reason thought mortality rate was higher for average flu. If these numbers are accurate, a slight bit more concerning. So far it seems this virus spreads fast(er) and can be a bit more deadly than an average flu. Not great but doesn't seem like we are on the brink of annihilation at least.

Good link Elmo. That link stats are in line with the stats I posted. If this is Fake news, my opinion is its under reported fake. From WHO below. Seems to me they are saying its not a horrible disease if you are healthy. https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses As with other respiratory illnesses, infection with 2019-nCoV can cause mild symptoms including a runny nose, sore throat, cough, and fever. It can be more severe for some persons and can lead to pneumonia or breathing difficulties. More rarely, the disease can be fatal. Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as, diabetes and heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.

Found some interesting tidbits. This one from WHO spokesperson: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov) Interesting part below. .."In total, there are now 7834 confirmed cases, including 7736 in China, representing almost 99% of all reported cases worldwide. 170 people have lost their lives to this outbreak, all of them in China." Then found some stats on normal influenza from here. I dont love this website but. https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics 5-20% of Americans get flu each year. 200,000 ave people hospitalized each year for flu 8200 - 20000 people who die each year from flu At this point in time, seems cornona virus has not yet done the damage an average flu virus does. I wonder if in several months this may change. I do want to say a word of goodness to those working on this virus and a word of sorrow to those affected. I dont think its time now to panic. The near future may change my mind on that but for now, I am not altering my routines based on the virus.

...."Once when I was hunting Eagle/ Bliss .." . You better be careful. Hunting Eagle can land you in jail.. Never hunted a Bliss before. Seriously, I have only seen three yotes total. A single while out with the xbow. And a pair out with my 30-06 while whitetail hunting.

This is an interesting read. https://whatkillsit.com/virus/what-kills-coronavirus/

Elmo: What city is she in??

Welcome. Good to see another waterfowler on here. You hunt snows??

I hear quite a bit of stuff and am not certain exactly what is accurate. Keep this in mind while reading. I do believe what I am saying below is true or at least some truth, but cant confirm. I'm not real sure what is common knowledge but the city of Wuhan is (supposedly) shut down. Public transpo, airlines, cabs, etc not running. This is a city the size of London. Can you imagine London being shut down???? Hospitals are over run and turning people away. Also doctors any doctor is now pulled into this. If you are a podiatrist for example, guess what? You are now on infectious disease duty. Its apparently a law or highly encouraged that you need to wear a mask in public. The situation there is highly under reported. The virus has spread to a number of other cities that are not yet in the news. There are stories I hear that may/may not be true. The one that sticks out is a sick woman was turned away at the hospital and began to cough/spit/hack on the stair railings trying hard to spread her germs and infect other people. If true, what a ..... Another a woman "escaped" from Wuhan and returned to France. She was ill and had a fever but somehow alleviated it enough to make it through screening. She posted how happy she was she was able to beat the system. Luckily some people have a heart and turned her in to French authorities after reading these posts. French authorities actually tracked her down and presumably quarantined her. Right now is New Year in China. Its a very festive occasion and people travel all over to visit family, friends. The government is encouraging people not to visit others and to stay home. Also, the government has tried to extend New Year, and telling people not to return to work just yet. An unconfirmed RUMOR is the disease is in Flushing, NY. JFK has (had?) direct flights to Wuhan so this COULD be accurate. One of the things I keep wondering is if a good portion of this is a knee jerk reaction. The more I hear, the less I think its a knee jerk though. I do think however that the hospitals are overrun with knee jerk people. Some percent of people must have it, but I am guessing its not a high percent. Also plain old influenza kills people in the US every year. Is this virus any worse or on par??? Stay safe..