Alsheimer Rut Predictions

[nyantler]

Why did I know that slowhand would have a problem with Alshiemers rut predictions?.. you're easier to predict than the rut slow..lol

[Four Season Whitetail's]

Pre-rut will start as soon as the bucks get the velvet off.I had yearlings scatter does in front of me on opening day of bow season.They were grunting and actin like it was the first week of november.Charlie still has deer behind high fence i believe and i am sure he watcheswhat they do to get some of his info.The earliest we have ever had a doe breed was on nov 3rd!!!!

[nyslowhand]

Why did I know that slowhand would have a problem with Alshiemers rut predictions?.. you're easier to predict than the rut slow..lol

Yes, I have opinions about predicting the rut. I don't constantly air my opinions. When others do, I'll chime in letting members know there are other trains of thought. Not everyone is a brain-washed robot that spews out the propoganda of others. I'm not going to keep looking over my shoulder to see if you are lurking in the dark, I'll keep stating my opinion. Be it right or wrong, whether you agree or not.

[nyantler]

Then state your opinion. You keep attacking the individual... saying that charlie alshiemer  does what he does to sell books and calenders means you don't know the man. And he doesn't sell ad space on his website. And though I'll agree that Charlie has made his living selling books and calenders, writing articles and doing seminars... he also works very hard and does a lot of research on everything he writes or speaks about. I'm not a big believer in the moon phase theory being the end all be all either, but if you know Charlie he didn't come up with it to sell calenders... in fact, the reason he does the calenders is because of all the requests he had years ago from guys that new he was doing the research. Don't begrudge a hardworking guy his living.

[sampotter]

The earliest we have ever had a doe breed was on nov 3rd!!!!

I don't know if you read my opening post, but there was a doe in heat on my farm on monday, October 25th. The buck and doe were seen by nearly everyone on the farm. They were bedded in an open hayfield all day. She was in heat, and unless the buck was gay, I suspect she was bred.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

That is real early and if she was bred that would put her fawning in april and im not so sure if mother nature would let that happen....Possible i guess.. We have had fawns born the first week of may but never in april.

[sampotter]

There is certainly a lot more that is understood about whitetail reproduction than is really known. It is a fact that the gestation can vary from 185-215 days, and it is surmised that a doe can hold off fawning if there are adverse conditions. Also- there is the possibility that a little Darwinism will take place in the case of this doe; if she does conceive, she may fawn early and in bad weather, thereby causing the death of her fawn, thus preventing her from passing on her genes to the next generation. This may be a reason why there always seems to be a few barren does around in the summer time.

[mossy725]

The earliest we have ever had a doe breed was on nov 3rd!!!!

I don't know if you read my opening post, but there was a doe in heat on my farm on monday, October 25th. The buck and doe were seen by nearly everyone on the farm. They were bedded in an open hayfield all day. She was in heat, and unless the buck was gay, I suspect she was bred.

:D

[WNYBuckHunter]

The earliest we have ever had a doe breed was on nov 3rd!!!!

I don't know if you read my opening post, but there was a doe in heat on my farm on monday, October 25th. The buck and doe were seen by nearly everyone on the farm. They were bedded in an open hayfield all day. She was in heat, and unless the buck was gay, I suspect she was bred.

How exactly did you know she was in heat? Did you take her temperature? 

Just bustin chops.

[WNYBuckHunter]

There is certainly a lot more that is understood about whitetail reproduction than is really known. It is a fact that the gestation can vary from 185-215 days, and it is surmised that a doe can hold off fawning if there are adverse conditions. Also- there is the possibility that a little Darwinism will take place in the case of this doe; if she does conceive, she may fawn early and in bad weather, thereby causing the death of her fawn, thus preventing her from passing on her genes to the next generation. This may be a reason why there always seems to be a few barren does around in the summer time.

That makes sense, there are many other animals that are capable of extending gestation periods in the wild.

[Buckstopshere]

It would seem that the proof of who is right and who is wrong is if there is going to be a significant spike in rutting action next week...or not.

Now we can always validate it next spring to some degree by our observations of the fawn drop (turkey hunters, farmers and wildlife rehabilitator observations.)

I know Charlie A. and was a guest speaker on a deer hunting seminar with him back in the 1980s. He's a great guy. I just disagree with this particular rut prediction when he said this will be the latest we will ever see, after Thanksgiving.

As far as "trickle ruts" go. There are always trickle ruts....to some degree, since we all know that all does do not conceive at the same time in any given year.

And we will know if the bow hunting websites light up with lots of observations of rutting bucks, all over the Northeast and the Midwest.

[WNYBuckHunter]

Dont get me wrong here, Im hoping for the majority of rut activity to happen before gun season, I just know that ever since I have been following Alsheimer's predictions, I have seen the most chasing activity of the season right around the times he has said. All we can do is wait and see.

BTW, I never said you were attacking Alsheimer, I said you attacked his prediction.

If you are right, then this weekend all heck should break loose in the woods. Its gonna be cold, partly cloudy and no precip.

[sampotter]

I came face to face with the buck I mentioned at the beginning of this post last night at 5pm literally in the back yard (20yds from the house) of the property I hunt on my late entry to my stand. He bounded into the overgrown xmas tree patch behind my stand. About half an hour later I heard something directly downwind of me. I couldn't see much because it was so thick, but I caught a flash of antler. I figured he would snort and blow out of there, but instead he marched right out at 10yds in the open and quartered across me. He's a nice 3yr-old with a split on one brow tine and a 3" sticker on the other side. I snapped a cell phone pic of him just before he went into the woods. Sorry for the poor quality. He is at the left of the pic.

[Brushbuster]

I live in NJ so the best indicator of deer movement is the morning drive.  Here in Somerset and Morris county,  all you have to do is count the road kill in the morning and evening commute.

You always see a spurt in that first chilly night in Sept when it gets into the 40's.

And then it seems to happen according to Alsheimer during seeking/chasing.

However, I did not see that much activity in this past seek/chase phase and I think it was because of the warm and windy weather.

[ELMER J. FUDD]

In Dutchess County the activity has really been picking up. I think BSH is right. I've seen a few bucks off the roads, crossing the roads, and one walking up my road, all with thier nose to the dirt.

  Yesterday I almost hit a doe. I was doing 15 mph, then a nice buck with a drop tine almost hit my truck! He was chasing her hard, tongue hanging out and all.

  Sunday evening an uneven spike came up 10 feet behind my son and I (15 feet behind me). His nose was in the dirt. He didn't seem alarmed at all, took a right and stop 20 yds down the hill. I missed him because my string hit my jacket. It happened so fast. My son was stoked. I thought for a second that we were going to be attacked! LOL!

  Sunday morning a 3 point was walking right up my road and didn't even acknowledge me when I stopped. I rolled down the window and asked him if the rut was on yet! He just stepped of to the shoulder and kept sniffing up the hill at the same pace.

I've been seeing more does with bucks too. There is a difference between 2 deer running from something and a doe playing hard to get with a buck. I'm definitely seeing the latter. FYI - the spike was in Wappingers, the other 2 bucks were in East Fishkill. I've also seen alot more movement Sunday morning at another location, just no antlers. (where my trailcam and treestand is)

[Brushbuster]

Yep - same here - saw a huge buck run into a car Fri night and then shrug it off and kept running.

Also, lots of buck and a couple doe road kill since Fri - 6 between my house and work since yesterday morning.  I think the cold snap has them moving at night.

[Andersondnb]

so are doe only bred once?

[nyantler]

If they are bred they will not come into estrus again.. so the answer is yes

[nyslowhand]

Correct, but when in estrous the does may bred several times with the same or different bucks.

Thus twins by the same buck or different bucks.

[Cabin Fever]

It'll be interesting to see if Charlie's predictions pan out. He said on the D&DH episode that he was really sticking his neck out this year, saying that the rut would be later than ever. I DVR'd the episode and saved it, just so I could compare.

[sampotter]

So far so good. Yes- there is a little bit of activity right now- but not what you would expect for mid-November. There definitely was rubbing, scraping, fighting, and breeding in the last week of October. Also- there were a lot of big bucks killed at that time too. I have hunted in the Adirondacks and Massachusetts in the past 10 days. In both places there was little active rut activity but quite a few older scrapes with leaves in them. This morning I finally saw 2 really torn up fresh scrapes, so I would have to say that things are going to Alsheimer's plan so far.

[First-light]

My nephew had the big boy locked up with two doe this Sat, 10 am they entered a field and bedded in it all day, the buck never left their side. I think it is happening right now and will continue thru next week. I can remember years ago gun hunting the rut and shooting at a nice buck and missing, he didn't run away and came right back on that does trail giving me a second shot.......I didn't miss! There will be some wild stories to tell!

[mossy725]

I find it amazing that people will doubt a man who has devoted 26 years of his life as a biologist, and spends 200 days per year in the field studying these animals.

[SilentStalker]

I follow his predicitons every year and for the most part buy into them. However, you MUST take in to account weather, the deer ratio he monitors, and his location (Southern Tier) It has been my experience that the ADK's are approx. a week later than his predicitons. I base this on my buck sightings and what thos ebucks are doing (chasing girls)) and the amount of rutting sign I see ie: rubs and scrapes 

[mossy725]

I follow his predicitons every year and for the most part buy into them. However, you MUST take in to account weather, the deer ratio he monitors, and his location (Southern Tier) It has been my experience that the ADK's are approx. a week later than his predicitons. I base this on my buck sightings and what thos ebucks are doing (chasing girls)) and the amount of rutting sign I see ie: rubs and scrapes

Absolutely. I was just referring to the people who just "write off" his predictions as a way to sell "Deer and Deer Hunting" along with his yearly calendar.