Have they got it right?

[Doc]

The whole whitetail management system relies on numbers. The harvest numbers, determine the antlerless permit numbers. As best as you can determine through observation and logic, and considering the data aquisition methods, what's your opinion as to how accurate those numbers are? In your area do they have it about right?

Doc

[wztirem]

Doc,

This thread made for good discussion on the old Empire Forum. You may recall my disdain for the NYSDEC statistics. Granted the NYSDEC explains their methodology in comprising their statistics which I can appreciate,however, the majority of hunters who do not report their kills are the problem which prevents the NYSDEC from publishing reliable data.

Caveat emptor!

[Geno C]

im not sure on how the logistics are panned out. i dont think they are completely accurate. However, i do beleive they have to calculate some kind of non reported carcass percentage. Some kind of percentage or formula they use for those who do not report it.

i really never did get this. i remember i used to get 2 dmps every year in my county and then for a few years we didnt get any and those years i still continued to see loads of deer, mostly does.

[Buckstopshere]

I know I'm going against the grain, but from what I've seen in my area of Southern Allegany County, I think they have it about right. The proof is that the population has been pretty stable for the last five years or so.

I think the non-reporting rate, that is the automatic calculation the DEC figures into the overall population figure, is computed by an analysis of check stations, field checks (violations) and processor checks and match those who report their tags against how many are not reported. Usually it is around 65% of the check station, processor, and those who have field checks done by CO's actually report.

The DEC has had a statistical analysis company look into their methodology and it has been validated.

But New York is so vast with so many different whitetail populations, age structures, etc. far be it for me to give a statewide thumbs up or thumbs down. From what I've read, some areas seem to have been skewed by politicians and large landowners (farmers with lots of kill permits.)

[orion]

How do they estimate the population? I think I have the deer take figured out but the overall population I haven't a clue and wonder if they DEC has a clue.

[SteveB]

They are as accurate as any state can be without spending huge amounts of money trying to do an actual physical count.

[Lawdwaz]

They are as accurate as any state can be without spending huge amounts of money trying to do an actual physical count.

I agree.

Anybody have a better idea?

[Larry]

What the DEC is using is a statistical sampling plan if the mythology is correct then there counts would be highly accurate. Here is another option for those who think the DEC’s numbers are way off

Maybe what needs to happen is to have mandatory reporting on all tags for a year or two. I hate this myself but we can’t have it both ways. If we are not going to report are kills and we also don’t except the DEC’s calculated harvest data. Then mandatory reporting is the only option left, at the very lease it will tell us how good the DEC’s data is. If you don’t report on all your tag used, unused the next time you by a license you don’t receive the tags you didn’t report on. Also you pay first this would put an end to not reporting on tags fast.

[Doc]

I have seen signs that occasionally they have it right and sometimes they just seem to be completely off the mark. It's almost a random thing, kind of like accidental success. Here's what it appears to me: It all seems to run in cycles. Remember the 80's and 90's? There seemed to be no controlling the herd. numbers went through the roof. Then they relaxed the permit system and everybody was in the woods with gobs of permits just falling out of their pockets. Then we started to hear loud complaints from hunters about deer scarcity. I mean LOUD complaints from nearly every part of the state. Permits numbers started to contract and now in most areas of the state, the complaining has slowed and herds are once again coming back. Anybody see a pattern there? It doesn't seem so much like management as crisis reaction and over-reaction. These are the things that make me a bit suspicious. Personally I think the same cycle could be maintained without any statistics at all, but simply reacting to what is being seen and heard. So if I seem to be a bit untrusting of the current management schemes, that is the reason.

I do believe there are certain aspects of the system that could be improved. I think there are ways of cleaning up the "reporting rate" fiasco as per another thread. I also think that statistical methods are good as long as there is periodic physical verification, re-adjustment and re-calibration. Physical verification is not impossible or impractical. PA has done it through strategic infra-red photo fly-overs. No, they do not do an entire state at one time, and that is not necessary for statistical verification. It is merely a "spot check" to verify that the statistical management is still tuned up, on track and working ....... or not.

I'm sure that the DEC is probably using the best statistical model that they can use, and they may even be using it properly as far as the pure science of statistics is concerned. However, I think there has to be an admission of the limits of statistics. We can't treat statistics like a religion and merely accept that it is infallible and never needs readjustment. Well, I suppose we can and simply live with the results.

Doc

[Doc]

How do they estimate the population? I think I have the deer take figured out but the overall population I haven't a clue and wonder if the DEC has a clue.

This is an excellent question. How do they estimate the population? Anybody know?

Doc

[wztirem]

Governor Patterson counts the deer while driving around the state when he conducts his yearly visits with his constituents.

[wooly]

The whole whitetail management system relies on numbers. The harvest numbers, determine the antlerless permit numbers. As best as you can determine through observation and logic, and considering the data aquisition methods, what's your opinion as to how accurate those numbers are? In your area do they have it about right?

Doc

Ummm.....NO. Not even close.

This past winter alone I found right around 30 dead unrecovered/winterkill/roadkill deer within a 2 square mile area surrounding my hunting grounds while shed hunting. These were obviously not reported to concsider towards the total harvest for the area. That number is not exagerated in any way.

I don't know how they can accurately guestimate herd #'s statewide and more importantly localy and continue to pass out DMP's like lolly pops at the barber shop for my DMU.

[Doc]

I am just curious as to what the procedure could possibly be for establishing a deer population. I can't even come up with a decent guess. In fact as many deer management seminars, presentations, and articles as I have come across, that is one subject that they don't seem to get into very much. I'll have to do some internet work and see if there is anything out there.

Doc

[Larry]

Whether you believe the DEC’s numbers or not there are scientific facts involved in getting their numbers. First 45% of us do report are kills (this sucks if don’t report your kill your poaching) next there are check stations and then they make stops to deer processors and they do field work. How you and I get are number are far more subjective then scientific. One example would be if you killed a deer or two you may be more likely to say the deer numbers are fine. Then someone who didn’t kill a deer.

Now how I did and what I saw for numbers (remember this is subjective not scientific) I hunt three WMU’s 8G, 8M and 9P. I live in 8G and have a camp in 9P; I hunted almost every day from the first day of bow to the last day of ml.

8G I would have to say the DEC should cut all DMP’s I only saw two does while hunting and I killed one. But my trail cam tells me there all kinds of does there.

8M the DEC need to close the season both times I hunted in that WMU I didn’t see a deer. But I did have my 15 year old son with me HE CAN SCARE BIGFOOT OUT OF THE WOODS.

9P the DEC is doing everything right  saw as many buck as does in good numbers kill a buck with a gun and a doe with my ML and my son got BIGFOOT as he ran out of the woods.

[sweet old bill]

Doc you will take my place on the hit list for the DEc.. do they have it right, no, and If I could I would fire the top mangement at the DEC. I would want a total change in how they develop there logic on hunting limits and the number of doe permits. Just to show what a level of poor performance at the top. I went to them with a valid I felt question on when lumber is taken off of a state hunting area, why is not the funds that the state gets used then to reforrest and make food plots. They come into the North Pharsalia area and toop out red pine for almost 1000 A's of land, they cut the tops off and just let them in the area, makes the area not able to hunt and or even walk thru. There anwer is after 10 years or so the tops will rot out and this is the natural event. No the vendor taking the trees have no contact to reforrest and ot reseed and the dollards go all to a general fund ( NYC )

[Doc]

It's true that as hunters, we are merely observers. I don't know anyone who actually attempts to apply any science to their observations and tries to make hard numbers out of what we see. Of course that doesn't mean that those people (the DEC)that officially do try to implement science and math and try to come up with hard numbers get it right either.

One thing that I will say for hunter observations and conclusions is that they are the ones who are actually out there making on-the-ground field observation ...... in most cases they are the only ones. Not only that but many of us spend a lot of time out there in a year around fashion, and now a lot of us have cameras doing the leg-work for us even when we are not there. None of this is designed to arrive at pure numbers, but you certainly do get impressions of whether the deer numbers are up or down from previous years based on sign and actual observations. Also, hunters are intensely concerned with specific hunting areas, those areas that they hunt. That gives them a focused view that the DEC will never be able to achieve, even with their statistics.

Another thing to remember is that the DEC statistical analysis is really only as good as the performance and observations of the hunters. After all, 100% of their input that feeds their statistical models comes from hunter successes. If hunters are getting a fouled up view of deer numbers then their results are likely to be equally fouled up. So no matter who is doing the counting, the hunters are the only key to accuracy. If they aren't right, then the DEC numbers aren't right.

So, I wouldn't sell hunter opinion short. As long as I see deer populations taking the wild jumps up and down, it tells me that the management is a bit more "reactive" and less "predictive and proactive" than I would like to see it. There probably should never be an attitude of complacency ..... not by the DEC or us. There is always room for improvement.

Doc

[Doc]

Doc you will take my place on the hit list for the DEc.. do they have it right, no, and If I could I would fire the top mangement at the DEC. I would want a total change in how they develop there logic on hunting limits and the number of doe permits. Just to show what a level of poor performance at the top. I went to them with a valid I felt question on when lumber is taken off of a state hunting area, why is not the funds that the state gets used then to reforrest and make food plots. They come into the North Pharsalia area and toop out red pine for almost 1000 A's of land, they cut the tops off and just let them in the area, makes the area not able to hunt and or even walk thru. There anwer is after 10 years or so the tops will rot out and this is the natural event. No the vendor taking the trees have no contact to reforrest and ot reseed and the dollards go all to a general fund ( NYC )

Bill-

I try not to come down too hard on the DEC because I do believe that for the most part they are trying to do the best they can with what they have. It's not an easy job, and for all the complaining that I do, I really don't know what the day-to-day difficulties are that they encounter as well as the frustrations. I do understand that we hunters are always expecting vibrant, forward thinking, evergreen activity and ideas, when the reality is that the department is getting gutted everytime we pick up the paper. Resources have been cut to the point where I really don't expect to see change probably within the rest of my lifetime. Another consideration is that we must understand the political nature of their position in government. The head of their department is a political appointment which makes the whole department beholding to the Governor. And none of these governors have ever been bashful about using that position. There are other politicians who also wield significant influence. So when it comes to pointing fingers of blame, it is really hard to figure out just who to point it at.

So yes, I too will continue with the complaining and wishing things were a bit different, as will everybody else. But the reality is that it will really do no good and nothing will really ever change. In fact it likely will get a lot worse before it gets any better. And even if we could fire them all and replace them, I really doubt you would ever see much of a difference.

Doc