Rut predictions

[wdswtr]

I also stand behind my first post in the thread.   You may see activity peaks change but I do not believe the actually peak rut phase when the does are in estrous and are being bred various to any significant degree.  Here is a nice article from QDMA on it as well.

https://www.qdma.com/articles/what-triggers-the-whitetail-rut

and another

https://www.qdma.com/articles/no-link-between-moon-phase-and-rut-peak

Edited September 16, 2015 by wdswtr

[wdswtr]

Here is another thought on you moon phase guys.  Are the moon phases not exactly the same across the united states?  Dont even say NO.     Well why does the rut vary from one end of the US to the other by 2 months?  

[Buckstopshere]

Here is another thought on you moon phase guys.  Are the moon phases not exactly the same across the united states?  Dont even say NO.     Well why does the rut vary from one end of the US to the other by 2 months?  

 

That is a very good, basic question. And it has been answered many times by some of the top deer hunters and biologists, in charge of managing state and private deer hunting populations, such as Dr. James Kroll and Wayne Laroche (formerly head of Vermont's Fish and Game Dept. and now recently head of Pa.'s...thank god!)

 

The timing of the rut varies across the country. Generally, it is later as we move further south, but not completely. Why? For instance, deer here in the Midwest and Northeast are Oct.-Nov. breeders, Deer in Mississippi and Alabama breed from January into March, Mexican whitetails rut in January. Here we are facing the Harvest Moon as the "set trigger" if you will. Our deer have to breed in a three week or so window so that the fawns will hit the ground in late May or early June (like this year.) NYS jumped the gun thinking that we had a poor fawn crop because there were no fawns evident in May...but we had a late rut ...so we had a late fawn drop. It happened in June. Never seen so many fawns. But that's another story...for another post. Back to our fawns...if they were born earlier, they freeze will little food. Later, (like July) and they can not be mature enough to handle a rough winter. Mississippi has a different paradigm. There, if fawns hit the ground it May, they would not survive due to the severe flooding. So their biological clocks favored a later rut. And so on. But they are all set by the previous full moon. It does not matter where...the full moon still has a significant effect on the timing of the breeding because all whitetails are called short day breeders...totally dependent upon light (daylight and moonlight) to set their internal biological clocks. Deer, elk, sheep, turkeys...I have been studying the southern ruts for years...and it is interesting to see how perfectly the southern deer hunting websites blow up with "the rut is on!!" Only a month or two later than ours, almost to the day.

Edited September 16, 2015 by Buckstopshere

[Buckstopshere]

I also stand behind my first post in the thread.   You may see activity peaks change but I do not believe the actually peak rut phase when the does are in estrous and are being bred various to any significant degree.  Here is a nice article from QDMA on it as well.

https://www.qdma.com/articles/what-triggers-the-whitetail-rut

and another

https://www.qdma.com/articles/no-link-between-moon-phase-and-rut-peak

 

Then why is the fawn drop different each year? Surely, as a gobbler hunter, you noticed that there were virtually no fawns in May. Even the DEC announced it, presupposing that the severe winter impacted the fawn population. But...we had a bit of a premature...estimation. It was simply because the rut was so late last year. One thing is always constant. The gestation period of a doe is always 200 days, give or take. When we have an early rut, like will happen this year, then we can expect fawns to hit the ground in mid-May. I think NYS jumped the gun this year by cutting back the DMU permits... we have a bumper load of fawns. Never seen so many. They were just born late due to the later...mid-November rut last season. Thanks for the links...I have already read them.

[Water Rat]

Buckstopshere.....I'm guessing you saw the October issue of Deer & Deer Hunting where your boy Charles Alsheimer wrote an article called "Peak Rut Forecast / Lunar Rut Predictions 2015. In the article he states the "magic time" will be from Nov.1 thru Nov.10th. I no expert but I made a reply on page 3 that my "magic Time " has always been the days between Election Day and Veterans Day. He does concede that there are factors such as weather , temperature and human pressure which can affect the rut and it's intensity. With that being said , if I only had 7 days to hunt each and every year , it would always be between Election Day and Veterans Day. 

[Buckstopshere]

Buckstopshere.....I'm guessing you saw the October issue of Deer & Deer Hunting where your boy Charles Alsheimer wrote an article called "Peak Rut Forecast / Lunar Rut Predictions 2015. In the article he states the "magic time" will be from Nov.1 thru Nov.10th. I no expert but I made a reply on page 3 that my "magic Time " has always been the days between Election Day and Veterans Day. He does concede that there are factors such as weather , temperature and human pressure which can affect the rut and it's intensity. With that being said , if I only had 7 days to hunt each and every year , it would always be between Election Day and Veterans Day. 

 

No, I didn't see the article in "Deer and Deer Hunting." Charlie and I do not agree 100% on our rut  predictions. (Surprise, surprise, I do not agree with anyone on everything. lol.)This year my historical patterns show that the apparent rut will be in a low ebb on 11/11/15 on Veteran's Day, just the opposite of last year when it was really taking off regardless of temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, or hunting pressure. There will be some nice bucks taken then, but they will be in lockdown. I have tagged some of my best bucks, and had some of my best chances then because the breeding buck won't leave the hot doe.  If she draws him out, because she wants to feed a bit, he is very vulnerable.

[wdswtr]

Buckstop please explain what you are calling the rut so we are all on the same page. My understanding  Rut is when doe are in estrous and being bred.   Then there is pre rut and post rut.  I said it before and will say it again I dont think there are many hunters that know what the RUT period actually is.  They see a spike chasing a doe and then get on the internet claiming the RUT is on.  LOL   And I fully understand how the climate differentiates the breeding times across north america, and do not agree what so ever with moon phase philosophy.  I can be persuaded if scientific proof and not observation can disprove me.  I see no correlation what so ever with the same exact moon over the whole country effecting the breeding of whitetails.  You honestly can say with positive proof, not observations or theories but hard fact proof that on this novemeber 11th when we have our new moon that deer in Mexico are going to remember this on January 11 60 days later?  Especially when you take in consideration an average life span of 5 1/2 years, 60 days must seem like 10 years to them lol. 

FourSeasonWhitetail will hopefully chime in on this next one.   Take these deer farms who have gotten deer from different climate areas in the US.  Everything I have read in the past say that it takes them approximately 2 years for there breeding cycle to acclimate to the new area they are residing in.   Why is this?

Did you read the articles I posted from the QDMA website?  Care too explain how they scientifically were able to calculate from all the deer they collected based of a deers gestation period and age of the fetus on the does they collected put the dates almost exactly the same over many years they did this study?  Not picking or bashing honestly, nothing wrong with a good debate.

Edited September 17, 2015 by wdswtr

[WNYBuckHunter]

FSW would be a great one to chime in here, and let us know how they force does into estrous to collect scents, etc. Im pretty sure I already know, Id just like him to explain it.

[NFA-ADK]

The doe is the one who gets the rut going not the buck.  So the buck looking up at the moon is a funny comment. 

The rut is not when the doe is in heat and being bread that is called lock down. 

We can argue this to no end but I will leave it as believing the moon is a trigger for the doe to come into heat.  It is the only clock they have because they are not capable of counting up to 365 days.  Daylight change and moon phase are the ONLY way they can tell time and it is a better clock than we have.   

 

To me thinking that deer will follow our calendar date of November the 10th just seems silly.  (Wonder what they would do on leap year!)  But someone will see them breed every year on that date and swear the moon is irrelevant.  Others will see breading on the 1st of November or the 17th and say HA that 10th day is wrong. 

 

All I can say is I love November 7th and 9th my two lucky days!  Must have been all luck because the tracking and stalking and calling and everything else that lead to them happened during the RUT so all my skills are irrelevant because I did no scouting or prepping in this state land and stalked them on the ground.  Guess I should give up state land buy some property and set up funnels and tell others how beginners get lucky in them.  Arg

 

Not trying to bash property owners but some of the new opinions on this site are very narrow minded.  ok I am done. 

 

 

[Buckstopshere]

Buckstop please explain what you are calling the rut so we are all on the same page. My understanding  Rut is when doe are in estrous and being bred.   Then there is pre rut and post rut.  I said it before and will say it again I dont think there are many hunters that know what the RUT period actually is.  They see a spike chasing a doe and then get on the internet claiming the RUT is on.  LOL   And I fully understand how the climate differentiates the breeding times across north america, and do not agree what so ever with moon phase philosophy.  I can be persuaded if scientific proof and not observation can disprove me.  I see no correlation what so ever with the same exact moon over the whole country effecting the breeding of whitetails.  You honestly can say with positive proof, not observations or theories but hard fact proof that on this novemeber 11th when we have our new moon that deer in Mexico are going to remember this on January 11 60 days later?  Especially when you take in consideration an average life span of 5 1/2 years, 60 days must seem like 10 years to them lol. 

FourSeasonWhitetail will hopefully chime in on this next one.   Take these deer farms who have gotten deer from different climate areas in the US.  Everything I have read in the past say that it takes them approximately 2 years for there breeding cycle to acclimate to the new area they are residing in.   Why is this?

Did you read the articles I posted from the QDMA website?  Care too explain how they scientifically were able to calculate from all the deer they collected based of a deers gestation period and age of the fetus on the does they collected put the dates almost exactly the same over many years they did this study?  Not picking or bashing honestly, nothing wrong with a good debate.

 

I like a good debate and appreciate serious discussion with no impugning motivations, or picking and bashing as you say. Thanks!

 

There is a lot to your questions and my answers would at the least put most to sleep and I do not want to set the record for the longest post! lol.

 

So, one at a time. About the definition of the rut...that's why I call it "the apparent rut" and contrast that with the rut, or the actual breeding time. As hunters, I like to focus on the apparent rut because that's when I have killed my best bucks during archery season because their guard is down. And that's why I try to maximize my time in the field to key in on that time when the majority of the bucks have one thing on their minds and the good ones come out of their holes and they are on their feet in the daytime.

I don't see the rut as pre-, actual- and post-rut. I see the rut as three bell curves each season. An early rut, the main rut, and then a final December rut. These three high points happen a moon apart each year and vary up to almost a three-week swing. The cycle is a 19 year pattern.

 

So talking about pre-rut runs into the first estrous cycle that always occurs. And leads to more confusion than even the word...rut. lol. We will see this first rut spike at the start of our NY and Pa. bow season this year...scrapes opened, does being run, etc. And then it will die out towards the middle of October, and then build back up for the main rut spike between Halloween and Election Day, then ebb again in mid-Nov. with a late rut when the 20% of the doe fawns cycle in early December.

 

 

[Buckstopshere]

Buckstop please explain what you are calling the rut so we are all on the same page. My understanding  Rut is when doe are in estrous and being bred.   Then there is pre rut and post rut.  I said it before and will say it again I dont think there are many hunters that know what the RUT period actually is.  They see a spike chasing a doe and then get on the internet claiming the RUT is on.  LOL   And I fully understand how the climate differentiates the breeding times across north america, and do not agree what so ever with moon phase philosophy.  I can be persuaded if scientific proof and not observation can disprove me.  I see no correlation what so ever with the same exact moon over the whole country effecting the breeding of whitetails.  You honestly can say with positive proof, not observations or theories but hard fact proof that on this novemeber 11th when we have our new moon that deer in Mexico are going to remember this on January 11 60 days later?  Especially when you take in consideration an average life span of 5 1/2 years, 60 days must seem like 10 years to them lol. 

FourSeasonWhitetail will hopefully chime in on this next one.   Take these deer farms who have gotten deer from different climate areas in the US.  Everything I have read in the past say that it takes them approximately 2 years for there breeding cycle to acclimate to the new area they are residing in.   Why is this?

Did you read the articles I posted from the QDMA website?  Care too explain how they scientifically were able to calculate from all the deer they collected based of a deers gestation period and age of the fetus on the does they collected put the dates almost exactly the same over many years they did this study?  Not picking or bashing honestly, nothing wrong with a good debate.

 

"Take these deer farms who have gotten deer from different climate areas in the US.  Everything I have read in the past say that it takes them approximately 2 years for there breeding cycle to acclimate to the new area they are residing in.   Why is this?"

 

 

Whitetails, like sheep are short day breeders. There are two basic bio-chemical mechanisms hardwired into their DNA, one is their internal clock. It takes a while for deer to synchronize biochemically and through their pheromones so that they are on the same page with their new mates. I would surmise that some whitetails can find synchronicity quicker than others, depending on which geographical race they are from. I have read where whitetail breeders have had to deal with this phenomenon.

 

The other timing mechanism is the pineal gland and the suprachiasmatic nucleus which processes light. The pineal gland produces melatonin. Melatonin suppresses breeding in sheep and deer. Sheep breeders use melatonin implants to time the lamb drop in the spring. They use melatonin implants in the ewes. When they pull them out at the same time, the ewes cycle and the lambs hit the ground at the same time.

 

The moon acts like a melatonin implant if you will. There is a lag time between the pulling out of the melatoinin implant and the moon's effect. Takes a few days for the melatonin to dissipate. Then they breed. It isn't so much that the deer see the moon and figure on some metaphysical whitetail calendar. lol. Simply put, whitetails are ruled by their two bio-mechanical mechanisms, one being the internal clock (our deer are Oct. Nov. breeders, while Mexican deer breed in January.) And the other is the pineal gland and the suprachismatic nucleus that regulates melatonin and other pheromone flow.

 

The question about fetal aging needs to be in another post and gets to the crux of the proof of the matter.

[wooly]

Most folks can't comprehend the influence of the pineal gland in their own heads, so I wouldn't expect the average hunter to know what's going on in a deers brain when it comes to something like that,lol

We can all speculate our own beliefs until we're blue in the face, and have faith in them from one season to the next until they (the deer) prove us wrong.

So be it.... live and learn.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

"Take these deer farms who have gotten deer from different climate areas in the US.  Everything I have read in the past say that it takes them approximately 2 years for there breeding cycle to acclimate to the new area they are residing in.   Why is this?"

 

 

Whitetails, like sheep are short day breeders. There are two basic bio-chemical mechanisms hardwired into their DNA, one is their internal clock. It takes a while for deer to synchronize biochemically and through their pheromones so that they are on the same page with their new mates. I would surmise that some whitetails can find synchronicity quicker than others, depending on which geographical race they are from. I have read where whitetail breeders have had to deal with this phenomenon.

 

The other timing mechanism is the pineal gland and the suprachiasmatic nucleus which processes light. The pineal gland produces melatonin. Melatonin suppresses breeding in sheep and deer. Sheep breeders use melatonin implants to time the lamb drop in the spring. They use melatonin implants in the ewes. When they pull them out at the same time, the ewes cycle and the lambs hit the ground at the same time.

 

The moon acts like a melatonin implant if you will. There is a lag time between the pulling out of the melatoinin implant and the moon's effect. Takes a few days for the melatonin to dissipate. Then they breed. It isn't so much that the deer see the moon and figure on some metaphysical whitetail calendar. lol. Simply put, whitetails are ruled by their two bio-mechanical mechanisms, one being the internal clock (our deer are Oct. Nov. breeders, while Mexican deer breed in January.) And the other is the pineal gland and the suprachismatic nucleus that regulates melatonin and other pheromone flow.

 

The question about fetal aging needs to be in another post and gets to the crux of the proof of the matter.

There you have it. To bring my deer in and to cink them so all fawns hit the ground around the same time. We call them Cidr's  They stop the cycle of the doe, in for 14 days, pull Cidr and give her a shot of Pmsg, Breed 58-63 hours later.

[HuntOrBeHunted]

November 15th. My favorite buck hunting date. Full swing rut.

 

[Larry]

I have 22 days off in November I’m sure I’ll hit the prime time to hunt

[wdswtr]

Good stuff guys.   I still find it quite ironic how in just the past few post alone the rut has been described differently.  From my understanding and from reading the Rut is considered by scientist and researchers to be the time when the does are being bred.  Pre rut is the activity before and post rut the activity after.   I think this is where a lot of confusion comes from.   So many different opinions on what the rut is.   Lockdown is what some hunters call the actual Rut, they are breeding the does.  As far as the buck looking up at the moon comment that was simply to add a little humor to make a point.   Good stuff Buckstopshere I appreciate the replies. 

[The_Real_TCIII]

This is what I was trying to point out. By definition, the rut has 3 phases and it does culminate with the breeding or tending. Another little glitch is that there is no starter's pistol going off & all does immediately go into estrus at the exact same time. This all depends on the buck to doe ratio, just how much & far a buck will roam looking for subsequent does to service. Thus giving mini-cycles within each of the early, main &/or late ruts. I'd be a fool to think I could pinpoint an exact date or even a couple day range to say this was the rut.

Wooly, you for one can appreciate the chasing phase. Best time to set the bow aside & enjoy the show or get the camera out.

Buckstopshere, trying to sway my opinion..? LOL. 11/11/14 was when I got my buck last year. Wasn't that a ~75deg day too? Which goes against all logic, assuming they'd be more nocturnal during a heat wave!?! Just goes to show your there isn't a lot of predictable logic or pure science going on with the rut. Sure, some of both involved, but they are wild animals and each has their own distinct personality or tendencies. This is why I have a problem with Alsheimer marketing his observations as a predictable science. Just out of curiosity, how does that out of state sightings data you keep correlate to your own observations. God knows I've gotten texts and read posts saying "it's on" and look around from my tree stand and see nothing...WTH!?!

I killed a nice buck 11/9 two years ago at 11am and it was 76 degrees, maybe THATS the magic factor!

[Buckstopshere]

"Care too explain how they scientifically were able to calculate from all the deer they collected based of a deers gestation period and age of the fetus on the does they collected put the dates almost exactly the same over many years they did this study?  Not picking or bashing honestly, nothing wrong with a good debate."

 

 

In my opinion the fetal aging studies are flawed for a number of reasons, the most important being, not the sample size...but the control numbers seem to be suspect and too small for starters.

 

Granted, it seems that thousands of dead does (mostly road kills) have been opened up, their fetuses extracted and then measured. And at first glance seems adequate. But when really looked at, questions arise such as, "what are these dead fetuses measured against?"

 

You need a valid, statistically validated, sound control number.

 

Think about it. If you were going to create a valid scale to measure fetuses against, how would you do it?

 

Well, you would have to have a doe in a pen and know the exact time she was bred and her fawns were conceived. Then you would have to kill her, extract the fetuses and then put their measurement on a scale.

 

This expensive and difficult process of holding a doe, breeding her, euthanizing her and extracting and measuring the fetuses along a 200 day gestation period would necessitate killing 200 does. That would give you a basic scale. But is this control a large enough sample to be statistically sound?

 

There are about four or five fetus measurement scales. The first was in 1946 Cheatum and Morton in 1946, the second created by Armstrong in 1950. Both here in NY. Armstrong measured 76 fetuses while Cheatum and Morton measured 17. These statistical models were never tested to my knowledge. 

 

In 1985 Hamilton et al. measured 64 known fetuses in 1984, a southern study with a smaller race of deer than the northern whitetail of Armstrong, Cheatum and Morton.

 

The fetuses are measured crown to rump. Now, with modern DNA research, we know that 26% of twin fawns have different fathers, many sired on a different day as the estrus cycle of the doe allows for here to be fertile for up to 48 hours before her progesterone kicks in, telling her reproductive system that it is done. A doe has a two-pronged uterus so when she is pregnant in one, the other can still accept fertilization.  Of course when these studies were created the authors did not know the high incidence of promiscuity in whitetails through DNA or the multiple paternity in a quarter of the does carrying twins.

 

Another problem is in the physical measuring of fetuses in dead does. Imagine the difficulty in holding a small fetus and putting a micrometer from its butt to its head and getting an accurate measurement from it. (Crown to rump.) (Having moonlighted...no pun intended, as a part-time contractor and measuring and watching others measure lumber with a tape...I know that we all make mistakes and judgements of an 1/8 to 1/4 on an inch are subject to personal interpretation. Trying to measure a stinky, slimy fetus presents questions that I would not want to hang my hat on. And I have dressed out hundreds of deer. The fetus scale is in millimeters...2.54 centimeters equals an inch or 25.4 mm in an inch. Now good luck reading that tape under those conditions of a gutted, road killed doe.

 

So I have problems with the creation of the scale and the obtaining of data. But great question. Thanks!

 

Incidentally, Joe Hamilton, founder of QDM did not invent the fetal scale, he just made his own.

 

And I have a problem with the arithmetic too. Bad math. Fetal measurements are supposed to be a way to back-date the rut by using a measurement scale. And we know that the different races of deer are different sizes, that's why the ear-tip-to-ear-tip of southern deer is 15 inches while a northern deer is 17 inches when field judging on the hoof P&Y or B&C antler size. But the fetal scales make no mention of differing sizes of whitetails. Whitetail fetuses do not grow at the same time. Fetal growth varies between whitetail races, weather conditions (in a severe winter northern whitetail does can reabsorb their fetus) and overall herd health. 

 

So I have more than a passing issue with "the science" of fetal measuring to determine the prior rut. The whole concept has led deer hunters down a bad trail. 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2015 by Buckstopshere

[WNYBuckHunter]

Why would you have to kill the does to measure the fetuses? You could simply do an ultrasound and get the measurements. They do that stuff with humans every day.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

I can tell you when the rut is on in my pens, The rut is on in the wild! Yes have some come in early..Late October but for the most part its the  2nd and 3rd weeks in November that the magic happens here.

 

 

[BizCT]

I've been in rut since my 11th bkrthday

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