DEC statistical management

[Doc]

OK, first of all let's admit that we are mostly not statisticians. Most of us do not have any real inside info on the analysis and evaluation of statistical systems (at least not that anyone will admit to ...lol). We also understand that it is not practical to count deer. I think it may go without saying that none of us are capable of designing any alternatives to the DEC/Cornell statistical management.

 

But, we do know a little about how the DEC comes up with their numbers that they manage the deer herd and other game species number with. We also can each "see" (some better than others .... lol). We also can read and understand reports. And most of us can remember some history involving massive overpopulations (Admitted to by the DEC) and some horrific deer shortages (again admitted to by the DEC).

 

So, given the above limitations and capabilities, what is your opinion on the accuracy of the DEC's numbers and the statistical systems that come up with them? Do you have confidence that their statistical approaches are infallible? How about "adequate" .... are they adequate? Why do you feel they are or are not? Any comments or discussion about this aspect of deer management?

 

 

[phade]

OK, first of all let's admit that we are mostly not statisticians. Most of us do not have any real inside info on the analysis and evaluation of statistical systems (at least not that anyone will admit to ...lol). We also understand that it is not practical to count deer. I think it may go without saying that none of us are capable of designing any alternatives to the DEC/Cornell statistical management.

 

But, we do know a little about how the DEC comes up with their numbers that they manage the deer herd and other game species number with. We also can each "see" (some better than others .... lol). We also can read and understand reports. And most of us can remember some history involving massive overpopulations (Admitted to by the DEC) and some horrific deer shortages (again admitted to by the DEC).

 

So, given the above limitations and capabilities, what is your opinion on the accuracy of the DEC's numbers and the statistical systems that come up with them? Do you have confidence that their statistical approaches are infallible? How about "adequate" .... are they adequate? Why do you feel they are or are not? Any comments or discussion about this aspect of deer management?

 

You must have missed the thread where people here solved world hunger when it came to DEC data collection methods.

 

This is a great thread for Jan/Feb./Mar. It's hunting season still, and I'm more interested in who killed what, etc.

[Doc]

You must have missed the thread where people here solved world hunger when it came to DEC data collection methods.

 

This is a great thread for Jan/Feb./Mar. It's hunting season still, and I'm more interested in who killed what, etc.

 

Great, so ignore this one and start whatever thread suits you. The forum is kind of open for that sort of thing.

 

[phade]

Great, so ignore this one and start whatever thread suits you. The forum is kind of open for that sort of thing.

 

 

You are misunderstanding my points.

 

Have fun with this thread. Last time the DEC data collection methods were brought up, it devolved pretty quickly because people are set in certain camps. It may be the most controversial topic on this forum, even more than Xbows, and AR.

[dbHunterNY]

I don't know specifically how DEC uses statistical analysis and probability to come up with tag allocations for the following year.  it's been working ok and hasn't compounded any problems to a severe degree, so I'm assuming that "system" works.  I do think that the system of reporting deer should be improved.  in some areas of the country I've hunted we've had to bring the deer to be checked in after we shot it.  just like voting you signed in with a book, recorded certain info, and then got a caracass tag to legally possess the deer and take it too a butcher, process it yourself, or whatever.  I could see this being automated, to be processed easier.  Maybe you get just a reporting verification # you've got to write down on your carcass tag you already possess.  Another thing maybe the poll didn't make it out this way but I have never gotten any polling questionaires from DEC or ever heard of any one around here getting one.  Without getting into DEC reports based on other management tools like ARs and other stuff, that's what I think.

 

....point is the current system works but only as good as the info being collected.  if you know the data collected can be improved then why not do it?  maybe then deer numbers will be more consistent from WMU to WMU, given the limitations of habitat and other factors.

Edited December 12, 2013 by dbHunterNY

[growalot]

 

It may be the most controversial topic on this forum, even more than Xbows, and AR.

Now your just full on kidding right Phade?....lol

[dbHunterNY]

wait you mean I can hunt with an AR when crossbow season comes around?  sweet!

[phade]

Now your just full on kidding right Phade?....lol

 

Not at all. People are passionate about this topic.

[landtracdeerhunter]

I don't know specifically how DEC uses statistical analysis and probability to come up with tag allocations for the following year.  it's been working ok and hasn't compounded any problems to a severe degree, so I'm assuming that "system" works.  I do think that the system of reporting deer should be improved.  in some areas of the country I've hunted we've had to bring the deer to be checked in after we shot it.  just like voting you signed in with a book, recorded certain info, and then got a caracass tag to legally possess the deer and take it too a butcher, process it yourself, or whatever.  I could see this being automated, to be processed easier.  Maybe you get just a reporting verification # you've got to write down on your carcass tag you already possess.  Another thing maybe the poll didn't make it out this way but I have never gotten any polling questionaires from DEC or ever heard of any one around here getting one.  Without getting into DEC reports based on other management tools like ARs and other stuff, that's what I think.

 

....point is the current system works but only as good as the info being collected.  if you know the data collected can be improved then why not do it?  maybe then deer numbers will be more consistent from WMU to WMU, given the limitations of habitat and other factors.

 

As far as deer reporting, NYS. got it the way they want it, what 40 % reporting rate. They would change it if they felt it wasn't successful. it would take  more money, NY. doesn't have.  Don't forget, they have to come up with millions for the NYSA. enforcement. Where's the money coming for that? Maybe out of Comuo campaign money, LOL.

 

Edited December 12, 2013 by landtracdeerhunter

[growalot]

LOL....I see...I was just joshing.....

[dbHunterNY]

As far as deer reporting, NYS. got it the way they want it, what 40 % reporting rate. They would change it if they felt it wasn't successful. it would take  more money, NY. doesn't have.  Don't forget, they have to come up with millions for the NYSA. enforcement. Where's the money coming for that? Maybe out of Comuo campaign money, LOL.

 

 

I'd think the funding would be out of DEC's money, nothing having to do with NYSA enforcement or other funds from the state.  Successful is relative I think.  You're right they're not changing it unless there's a problem.  That said i still think the system will work better if the quality of data that goes into it is better or more accurate.

 

[landtracdeerhunter]

Interesting just seeing how much faith, people have in the DEC. Think their rate is 40%?

[dhuntley2]

I don't know how the numbers could be anywhere near accurate. I sadly know way too many hunters that kill a lot of deer every year and never report it. It would be very interesting to be able to look up reporting histories of hunters I know.

[Nomad]

"OK, first of all let's admit that we are mostly not statisticians. Most of us do not have any real inside info on the analysis and evaluation of statistical systems ."

I certainly don't but my neighbor and fellow deer hunter was the head of R.I.T.s math and statistics dept. He feels that their methods are alright. That is recording the tags at processors and check stations and then checking the reporting rate of those known kills.

I have no idea I just count the ones I kill each year, and it's been 1 to 4 per year since 1,988 . Mostly by how many I want 1 to 2 and how many others want me to get for them.

I don't recall any hard years where I hunt .

[mike rossi]

Doc,

 

A reoccurring theme with you is that you despise the use of stats and think its a crock. Remember when I pointed out to you that it was you, not Early, who is resonating with a national animal rights organization? You are doing it again - one of the main talking points of the HSUS is that population estimates of migratory birds, specifically mourning doves are not accurate enough to base management decisions. However, if the estimates suggest hunting one species or another is not wise, the HSUS "believes" the conclusion...

 

Regarding the accuracy and adequacy of this, I think it does indeed show whether a population is increasing, decreasing, or approximately the same year to year and over a period of several years. Does it necessarily reflect what walks under your tree stand - no. Or the number of deer which use land you own or hunt on - no. The distribution of deer across the state is not even and neither is it across a deer management unit (wmu).  If you are not seeing anything from a single tree stand or several different stand locations  around a state forest does not necessarily invalidate the data for the entire wmu.

 

Remind yourself that this is in fact an estimate  and not an attempt to make an exact count. It would show significant changes in populations during extreme periods, but during average years it only suggests trends. Because of all the studies that were invested in, we now understand the biology of animals we can use those estimates and indices to  predict what the population will do in the near future in the absence of what is known as stochastic events.

 

You also repeatedly express a dislike for studies.. So lets go there... Years ago we had no idea of the mating systems, reproductive rates, and other biological knowledge about whitetails. Money was spent studying all that and today we have that knowledge. That knowledge enables predicting future population trends to guide management decisions. Without that biological knowledge the numbers would be much less useful. And there is more to it than statistics, it also involves linear algebra and calculus.

 

Few sportsmen are aware that this accumulation of knowledge accelerated with the advent of the Pitman-Robertson Act in the 1930s. Not only did those federal funds pay for studies but it also developed wildlife science programs in colleges and universities. The amount of knowledge today compared to back then is staggering and without it you would really know what a crap-shoot was...

[Doc]

I remember the later part of the 80's when the deer yards at the south end of Honeoye lake featured dead deer laying out in the fields, and deer that were so weak from starvation that they couldn't clear the fences and died there dangling by their hind legs, and the hundreds of deer, easily seen and counted that dotted the fields around there just standing there waiting to die. It seems the statistics weren't really controlling populations then. But statistics be damned, it didn't take the DEC long to flood the state with permits after that situation was seen by every car that went by. And lo and behold in the 90's there was an admitted overshoot there and a lot of the state suffered well-documented shortages that some areas apparently have not come back from. The statistics didn't work the magic there. Permit numbers were slashed and the herd was mostly rebuilt. Now, if I have read the articles correctly, the early harvest numbers seem to be indicating significant down-turns again. So what I see is wild swings in the populations that tell me that something isn't working as perfectly as advertised by the DEC.

 

I know I am being way over the edge, but it really seems to me that there is the statistical system that they use for show, but the real management system is simply to react to population fluctuations only after it is obvious that things have gone out of control. Enough whining from insurance companies and hunters and farmers and there is an instant over reaction (permit allocations) until things get out of control in the other direction. Management by created crisis. Oh, that is way overly cynical I'm sure, but so is the periodic declarations of the infallibility of the statistical systems. They simply aren't. But as long as they continue to make excuses for the glaring errors, and continue to proclaim perfection, there are no motives to continue improvements on their systems.

[mike rossi]

Was there a stochastic event in that locale during the early part of the eighties? Besides, that was thirty years ago, there was much less knowledge back then.

[Doc]

Was there a stochastic event in that locale during the early part of the eighties? Besides, that was thirty years ago, there was much less knowledge back then.

I'm not sure that the science of statistics has really changed all that much, and I'm not sure that the DEC model has changed at all since then. All I am saying is that there are still cyclical wild variations and their predictive abilities seem to be very poor at best. They seem to be more in the reactive mode.

 

And by the way, there is no stochastic event that would explain an over-population.

[phade]

One locale dictated the state flooding hunters with permits?

 

Seems legit.

[dhuntley2]

I wonder how well a check in station would work. I know in NJ they have a ton of deer and not as many deer hunters as NY. They can shoot as many does as they want and I think it is a earn a buck state. You shoot your deer take it to the check in station and then they issue your buck tag. I wonder what the stats are like in states like this. Obviously it would not be as easy with wmus that have less does to shoot, and don't issue doe tags. I wonder why people don't call in their tags. I  was thinking about it earlier and I think it is a lack of education. I don't remember a section in our hunter safety course, a long time ago, that talked about data collection from reporting your kills. If there was a section that said how important it was to the future of hunting it would stick with young hunters and I think more people would report their tags. My father for the longest time never reported, it's not that he shot more deer than he could he just didn't care to report, I think it's cause he thinks the dec will come snooping some how I don't know why. He also used to call in all of the unused dmps and muzzle tags the last day. Why he did this I have no idea, something in his little head told him to. Now I have gotten to him and he reports but I  wonder how many guys just don't because they are lazy or don't care.

[Doc]

I wonder how well a check in station would work. I know in NJ they have a ton of deer and not as many deer hunters as NY. They can shoot as many does as they want and I think it is a earn a buck state. You shoot your deer take it to the check in station and then they issue your buck tag. I wonder what the stats are like in states like this. Obviously it would not be as easy with wmus that have less does to shoot, and don't issue doe tags. I wonder why people don't call in their tags. I  was thinking about it earlier and I think it is a lack of education. I don't remember a section in our hunter safety course, a long time ago, that talked about data collection from reporting your kills. If there was a section that said how important it was to the future of hunting it would stick with young hunters and I think more people would report their tags. My father for the longest time never reported, it's not that he shot more deer than he could he just didn't care to report, I think it's cause he thinks the dec will come snooping some how I don't know why. He also used to call in all of the unused dmps and muzzle tags the last day. Why he did this I have no idea, something in his little head told him to. Now I have gotten to him and he reports but I  wonder how many guys just don't because they are lazy or don't care.

I know a lot of people see check-in stations as being a necessary thing, but looking at the starvation rations of resources tat the DEC gets these days, it is hard to imagine where personnel would be coming from to man these stations or who would be doing their jobs while they are out there. Another problem with check stations is that a lot of guys never have to load a deer on to their car. Some guys have their deer butchered up and in little packages in the car before they go home. Others live where they hunt and they do their own butchering. Now if you can't get people to make a simple phone call or fill out an easy on-line form, I wouldn't expect them to load a deer or two on their cars and drive to a check-station to do their reporting. Seriously, I think the DEC has gone about as far as they can go to make harvest reporting as convenient and easy as possible. There is only one other system that would be nearly fool-proof. That being a mandatory reporting system that requires one tag issued, one mandatory report (successful or not) with a computer verification to ensure compliance. That would get you to as near 100% reporting as possible and it would be real numbers, not guestimated numbers.

[dhuntley2]

This is true, our system is extremely easy and takes no time at all. Why do you think there is such a lack of reporting?

[Doc]

This is true, our system is extremely easy and takes no time at all. Why do you think there is such a lack of reporting?

People are great procrastinators. If they put it off too long and it gets past the allotted time they are afraid to turn it in late.

 

Also, there obviously is not a serious enforcement effort going on. It is very rare that you hear of a ticket being written for failure to report a kill.

 

Also, the DEC has done such a great job of selling their statistical methods of calculating reporting rates that hunters don't take the requirement seriously. After all if the DEC doesn't place any value on full cooperation, it makes the hunters feel better about not complying.

 

There's probably more reasons but those the three that come to mind immediately.