Alsheimer Rut Predictions

[sampotter]

I don't know how many of you follow Charles Alsheimer's rut predictions; I do, and I will say it sure is hard to discredit. This year is supposed to be weird- the earliest rutting moon so in recent history (2 days ago). Alsheimer predicted some does would come into heat off this moon, but because it is so early, teh majority would come in off the next full moon in the 3rd week of November. Here's what I have seen- 2 nights ago a yearling buck was dogging does in front of me, grunting like mad. This AM one of my employees came to work at 6 and told me all about a buck guarding a bedded doe in an open alfalfa field in front of his house. I drove up there and verified his story- a nice buck I have trail video of guarding a doe in the middle of the field- meaning one thing, she is coming in heat! Get your butts in the woods!

[nyslowhand]

I don't know how many of you follow Charles Alsheimer's rut predictions; ....- 2 nights ago a yearling buck was dogging does in front of me, ........This AM one of my employees came to work at 6 . Get your butts in the woods!

I wouldn't suggest anyone take time off from work this week to hunt based on Mr. A's predictions, the full moon, your two sightings and the 60-70º temps.

That is unless you have illuminated sight pins on your bow for dawn/dusk shooting.

Alshiemer's annual prediction sells books, calendars, TV air time and web site advertising.

He takes an annually occuring event, tries to wrap his guidelines around it and then puts it into a neat $9.99 calendar.

Just think of how many calendars he'd sell if he added predictions for peak fall foliage or the 1st flock of geese flying south or ....

[bleonard]

Ive seen a handful of does in the past couple of days, all but one were alone...no bucks.  However, last night at 6:30 pm just as I was about to climb down out of my stand I heard some leaves crunching.  Sat for a while and heard a buck grunting like mad, chasing a doe.  I had to eventually give up and the buck spooked as soon as I started getting down.  The doe stayed in the edge of the field I was hunting until I got about 15 yards away. I couldnt see how large the buck was, which would have helped because the younger bucks tend to rut earliest.  Just FYI.

[steve863]

I don't know how true this prediction is, but I did see an unusually large number of fresh road kills on the NYS thruway yesterday.  From exit 19 down to exit 16 I must have seen 7 road killed deer.  Don't know whether it was the full moon or the rut that had them moving, but it sure looks like something had them moving and made them throw caution to the wind.

[fasteddie]

I have met Charlie at least 3 times . Real nice guy .

[UpStateRedNeck]

I can vouch for the full moon having them moving....  damn near every field was full of deer this saturday night on my drive back.  I haven't seen much in the way of rubs, scrapes or general activity though.

[bushnell]

I am starting to see a lot more scrapes. I would think that the warm temperatures would gbe keeping the activities to a bare minimum.

[nyslowhand]

Yes - warm temps & full moon keeps daytime activity to a minimun, in my area & personal experience.

[sampotter]

For the past 5 years Alsheimer's rut prediction has been spot on. The rut never peaks at the same time every year. When mowing hay in the spring sometimes we mow fawns in every field and other times none, even if we start the same week in consecutive years. Alsheimer makes his living by being in the woods with deer. He has photographed behavior most of have never seen. He may not be a deer, but he seems to have a better handle on them than all of us put together. Regardless- a doe in heat on 10/25/10 is a little off from the oldtimer belief that does always come into heat around Nov. 15. Funny how there was a full moon 2 days ago.

[nyslowhand]

There are atleast a couple of theories of predicting the annual whitetail rut.

Alshiemer's is one. If you believe in his predictions, that is your right and I respect it.

I don't personally believe in his theory 100%, but find it interesting all the same. That's only my opinion.

Both schools of thought put the rut in a similiar peroid of time.

Simply different ways at looking at the effect of the moon phase or photoperoidism on predicting the rut.

You are correct, there is no starting gun for the does to go into esterous on Nov 15th!

Some are early, some are late - depending on age, conditions, available bucks, not being bred at their 1st esterous, etc.

No need to butt heads over what me believe in or opinions we have.

I'm hoping we'll both be there when it eventually takes place!

[sampotter]

Sounds like a deal

[Culvercreek hunt club]

Friday night I got out of work late and was still able to get a half hour in the stand...more of a scouting exercize for my buddy that was hunting my stand on Saturday. 80 yeards from my stand on the field edge they started a new scrap. I can't see it on my way in.. so how do I know it was there?...there was a freaking parade...6 different bucks in a half hour hit it and proceded intot he field to feed...I wish I had about a another half hour of light because they go bigger as each one came out.

[Buckstopshere]

I have had a bit of success predicting the rut in writing for the last 10 years and last year was not an exception. The peak of the rut here did NOT happen in the first week of November as Charlie had predicted. And this year, the main peak of the rut will happen in the next week to 10 days...not after Thanksgiving as he predicted.

Here is a video I had a bit of fun with about the subject of the Rut this year. Enjoy.

[bubba]

the rut is so minor copmapred to the pre rut.  The actual rut lasts only about 36 hours.  It is the prerut when the chasing is going on that needs attention. The actual rut, activity slows as the does go to heavy covered areas along with the bucks that are waiting for them.

[Buckstopshere]

Bubba: Good point! Some call the rut... from the opening of the scrapes through "the running time," and the breeding time.  Others call just the peak breeding time the rut. The terminology is pretty misleading...how would you define "the pre-rut," anything prior to the breeding time? When does the pre-rut start?

[Culvercreek hunt club]

the rut is so minor copmapred to the pre rut.  The actual rut lasts only about 36 hours.  It is the prerut when the chasing is going on that needs attention. The actual rut, activity slows as the does go to heavy covered areas along with the bucks that are waiting for them.

And when that 36 hours pass for the romantic couple...that is when I wan tto be in the woods....when he is in the mood and running for the next lady

[First-light]

This weekend we saw a bog buck dogging a doe in a field Friday morning when it was real cold. Found a huge scrapes in a line (3) that had to be made Friday. I think we see alot of deer killed opening day if the weather is good. Prerut I think will be Nov 7ish and rut around opening day.

[bubba]

My definition is when I start to see screapes and trees rubbed up.  The bucks seem more active and looking for attention.  I also look for single does as compared to groups of does and younger deer.  If I start seeing a single deer out feeding, I start using the rattle bag and grunt call a little more.

[nyslowhand]

And this year, the main peak of the rut will happen in the next week to 10 days...not after Thanksgiving as he predicted.

Most members have already attributed that historical time frame as when they have the highest success rate.

[Buckstopshere]

And once every few years, it's right on the money.

[WNYBuckHunter]

I have had a bit of success predicting the rut in writing for the last 10 years and last year was not an exception. The peak of the rut here did NOT happen in the first week of November as Charlie had predicted. And this year, the main peak of the rut will happen in the next week to 10 days...not after Thanksgiving as he predicted.

Here is a video I had a bit of fun with about the subject of the Rut this year. Enjoy.

If you listened to what Alsheimer said on the episode of D&DH where he made the prediction, he actually said that there would be early rutting activity, but that the main, heavy part of the chasing and then breeding phase would come along in November. He predicted there would be a trickle rut this year, not that the rut would hold off until Thanksgiving. That may or may not be a good thing because it equals out to alot more deer being killed in guin season.

[Buckstopshere]

I taped it. Didn't you listen? He said, "This will be the latest rut that we will ever see in our lifetimes," didn't he?

[nyslowhand]

He also said it would be a trickle & weird rut.

Sort of a disclaimer in case he errors in his prediction.

[WNYBuckHunter]

I taped it. Didn't you listen? He said, "This will be the latest rut that we will ever see in our lifetimes," didn't he?

Yes, he said that about the main peak of the rut, aka the breeding phase. He said that there would be some light early rut activity as well, known as a trickle rut. Dont cherry pick.

I know that you have the perception that you are the end all be all because you write for the Wellsville newspaper, but I have yet to see one single documented study that you produced (please dont point me to one of your newspaper columns or youtube videos). I have however seen a study that has been ongoing and well documented come from the team of Alsheimer and Laroche. This years rut may just well show the proof of whether or not his moon phase theory is right or not.

I am not saying that he will be right or you will be wrong, but if you are going to attack his prediction, attack it as a whole instead of cherry picked comments from it.

[nyslowhand]

WOW, a challenge to Mr. Rutting Moon. ???