Rut predictions

[buckordoe]

I have much respect for Charlie A. as a photographer, outdoorsman and writer. As far as his rut predictions go, I have found them to be hit or miss. Much more reliable, is tha calendar dates of November first to the fourteenth as the best two weeks to be in the deer woods for the rut. You can expect anything to happen at anytime, during those two weeks year in and year out.

I couldn't agree more than this statement. No way will I waste vacation time on like the 27th of October or earlier. Pretty much Nov 1st through the 14th you can't go wrong 

[buckordoe]

Do yourself a favor and listen to the Wired To Hunt podcast w Mark Drury. He nailed it. The rut take place the same time every year BUT the moons influence (like visibility) makes it seem better or worse. Sadly he said this yr is as bad as it gets for frantic daytime chasing for the typical Election Day chase period

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I listended to that pod cast but didn't remember anything that he said about this year. He talked mainly about High and low pressure systems.

[gjs4]

When they ask him about the rutting moon he goes into it in detail.

Ultimately you have to be in the right place at the right time. Why are funnels the best? Because they re likely to travel them. Hot does, wind, a gazillion variables can hurt you but a buck, especially a mature one, will travel in cover.

Despite what Alsheimer and other deer "experts" say- peak conception is about the same time each year. Some may come in during sept or dec but the 9-12 seems to be the "lockdown" time .... The more does the more subdued...

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[LetEmGrow]

Anymore I look forward to hunting before all the "no rhyme no reason" crap starts. It's never that great in NY anyway. And the places I have hunted where it is great, the action may he hot and heavy but everything is scatterrbrains. You have to be out all day and everything you see is going 100 miles an hour.

I think you have a better chance when pre-rut is just starting when you know the sign you find is from a deer close by, movement is still early/late, and hunting pressure has been light.

Edited August 19, 2015 by LetEmGrow

[gjs4]

The loss of the first and last two weeks cripples the guys that scout and out effort forth- chase phase is for the lucky and lazy who,s great skill may be identifying a funnel of some sort

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[wooly]

The loss of the first and last two weeks cripples the guys that scout and out effort forth- chase phase is for the lucky and lazy who,s great skill may be identifying a funnel of some sort

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So what are you saying.... the guys that put all this effort forth durring those times don't put any effort into finding funnels to hunt at one of the most productive times of the season in the chase phase?

That doesn't make much sense that a "trophy buck" kill in a funnel should be considered any less of an accomplishment than one that was killed in a bean field, or an oak flat, or a well used trail.

 

I swear some days I can't believe some of the things I read here,lol

Edited August 20, 2015 by wooly

[gjs4]

It's not what you read- it's what you interpret

Most rely on luck to hunt the animal.

Deer are most predictable on. Food based movement that occur early and late in the year and fall patterns of movement. Most are too lazy to put any effort forth preparing for these times.

I make pinch points- I plant plots- I scout non stop starting the day season ends. Not a luck based hunters approach in anything I do. Does it make me a better person ? Nope. Does it make me a more involved hunter, conservationist and steward of the woods? Yup.

Most productive? Not sure what you mean there or what your basis is for inferring what you are. Kill is the singular version.... I prefer to pursue experienceS (plural).

Feel free to reference a quality value filled thread on here... Whether a skilled or luck approach is used it will pose a sizable challenge for you

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[wooly]

It's not what you read- it's what you interpret

Most rely on luck to hunt the animal.

Deer are most predictable on. Food based movement that occur early and late in the year and fall patterns of movement. Most are too lazy to put any effort forth preparing for these times.

I make pinch points- I plant plots- I scout non stop starting the day season ends. Not a luck based hunters approach in anything I do. Does it make me a better person ? Nope. Does it make me a more involved hunter, conservationist and steward of the woods? Yup.

Most productive? Not sure what you mean there or what your basis is for inferring what you are. Kill is the singular version.... I prefer to pursue experienceS (plural).

Feel free to reference a quality value filled thread on here... Whether a skilled or luck approach is used it will pose a sizable challenge for you

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I can respect that point of view no doubt.

I particularly like your point of "Not a luck based hunters approach in anything  I do".... my approach is much the same, but without setting the bar as high in the end as some of you do in inches.

 

By "most productive" I was referring to the point that even the newbiest of newbies might even have the opportunity at a real brute in a funnel when they get that love drunk.

If that takes away from your dedication or fulfillment throughout the rest of the year leading up to a time when a lot of mature bucks hit the ground to rookies.... well that kinda sucks from that point of view.

 

Now that WHERE you kill an animal becomes part of the equation as much as what you kill it with, I don't like where hunting is going.

 

I don't know who's "yard stick" we're using anymore for deer hunting success measurements, but apparently many of us are falling short in how we measure success based on the terrain a buck was killed over.

 

I'll be loaded with a 64GB SD card this fall.

Please be sure to wipe off the ruler before the next guy lays his horn on it!

[Mossberg500Guy]

It's not what you read- it's what you interpret

Most rely on luck to hunt the animal.

Deer are most predictable on. Food based movement that occur early and late in the year and fall patterns of movement. Most are too lazy to put any effort forth preparing for these times.

I make pinch points- I plant plots- I scout non stop starting the day season ends. Not a luck based hunters approach in anything I do. Does it make me a better person ? Nope. Does it make me a more involved hunter, conservationist and steward of the woods? Yup.

Most productive? Not sure what you mean there or what your basis is for inferring what you are. Kill is the singular version.... I prefer to pursue experienceS (plural).

Feel free to reference a quality value filled thread on here... Whether a skilled or luck approach is used it will pose a sizable challenge for you

Hunting is solely based on luck and skill, yes you must take all things in consideration like where their food plot is and what rout they routinely travel, but after the amount of strategy you put into it things always change, so to think a trophy buck to present its life to you to harvest is anything but partly luck you are mistaken.

Edited August 20, 2015 by Mossberg500Guy

[gjs4]

Hunting is solely based on luck and skill, yes you must take all things in consideration like where their food plot is and what rout they routinely travel, but after the amount of strategy you put into it things always change, so to think a trophy buck to present its life to you to harvest is anything but partly luck you are mistaken.

Rather than just say I disagree; What's your basis for that proclamation?

I may be a defensive driver but there's still luck in not be injured commuting. Fairest analogy to deer hunting is like playing pro poker. A 5 yo w no skill could win the pot but someone who knows the game and skill set will win far more often on a longer scale.

I hunt lacking property in a big pressure area.... And I'll argue you're wrong all day on it just, or even primarily, being luck for everyone. Spend some time w observation stands and logging notes and your tune will change IF you want it to

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[grampy]

Luck does come to play in most endeavors. But skill and preparation tip the odds in your favor more often.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

Luck does come to play in most endeavors. But skill and preparation tip the odds in your favor more often.

It helps to be good to turn lady luck on your side.

[phade]

The harder i work the luckier i get. Odd.

[NFA-ADK]

I have to agree that hard work and knowledge of your prey makes a huge difference, that said not all of us have extra time to spend scouting, shooting, setting up camera's, food plots, funnels and or research the subject of deer.   Many of us are limited to state land and have no other access or the ability to leave family to "Scout for deer".  Hell many are just happy to get away from home for a few days at all and hunt.

 

We are talking about 2 levels of hunting plain and simple.  Most of my friends simply do not have the time for any hunting other than the actual hunt.  Family time takes priority.  This is why sites like this are great for us who are addicted to whitetails to gather and fight with each other, lol.

 

 One thing is for sure, lady luck shines the more I prep regardless of how I hunt the great Whitetail Deer!  Most of us addicts have found this out.  But the lucky ones do not seem to listen lol.  2 more weeks and they will start to show up at the archery range for 20 or so shots and say "I am READY!"

 

 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2015 by NFA-ADK

[Buckstopshere]

I have to agree that hard work and knowledge of your prey makes a huge difference, that said not all of us have extra time to spend scouting, shooting, setting up camera's, food plots, funnels and or research the subject of deer.   Many of us are limited to state land and have no other access or the ability to leave family to "Scout for deer".  Hell many are just happy to get away from home for a few days at all and hunt.

 

We are talking about 2 levels of hunting plain and simple.  Most of my friends simply do not have the time for any hunting other than the actual hunt.  Family time takes priority.  This is why sites like this are great for us who are addicted to whitetails to gather and fight with each other, lol.

 

 One thing is for sure, lady luck shines the more I prep regardless of how I hunt the great Whitetail Deer!  Most of us addicts have found this out.  But the lucky ones do not seem to listen lol.  2 more weeks and they will start to show up at the archery range for 20 or so shots and say "I am READY!"

 

I am one of the lucky guys in that I have hunted virtually every day, (usually twice, morning and evening) and have for 45 years. I have been blessed with an understanding family and a job that allowed me to work most of the time around my hunting hours. But sometimes, corporate demanded that I submit a budget and explain it right during the rut. It killed me! When I was traveling down to Pa. or to Boston, I saw the dead deer on the road, knowing that I was missing the peak of the running time of the rut. My sons were into sports, one in football and the other in soccer. I took them to their practices and of course all the games. Looking back, I missed a lot of prime time bow hunting, but I would do it again, just the same in a heartbeat. I still managed to kill a lot of bucks. It's a balancing act...family and hunting. But the choices of business and family, balanced against my time in the woods  has been one of the major paradigms of my life. And still is ;0)

 

[Buckstopshere]

When they ask him about the rutting moon he goes into it in detail.

Ultimately you have to be in the right place at the right time. Why are funnels the best? Because they re likely to travel them. Hot does, wind, a gazillion variables can hurt you but a buck, especially a mature one, will travel in cover.

Despite what Alsheimer and other deer "experts" say- peak conception is about the same time each year. Some may come in during sept or dec but the 9-12 seems to be the "lockdown" time .... The more does the more subdued...

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If you think the rut happens each year at the same time, you haven't hunted enough.

[gjs4]

If you think the rut happens each year at the same time, you haven't hunted enough.

I'll spare the pissing contest but I'll just state you have no flicking clue what you're talking about or to whom. I'll spend more time in the whitetail world in one calendar year than a few members of this forum combined. Maybe it's my degree, my time at the dec, my whitetail schooling, data logging and habitat work since the late 90s, scouting 12 months a year or just the fact your statement makes me know what you don't. But please feel free to educate me as your confidence has to have some backing better than my little effort.

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[Buckstopshere]

I'll spare the pissing contest but I'll just state you have no flicking clue what you're talking about or to whom. I'll spend more time in the whitetail world in one calendar year than a few members of this forum combined. Maybe it's my degree, my time at the dec, my whitetail schooling, data logging and habitat work since the late 90s, scouting 12 months a year or just the fact your statement makes me know what you don't. But please feel free to educate me as your confidence has to have some backing better than my little effort.

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 Sorry, I did not mean to offend you, but spare me the ad hominem jabs and chest pounding.

 

Nothing in nature happens at the same time each year on our calendars, from the ripening of apples, to the migration of birds, to the hatching of  specific species of mayflies on our rivers, streams, and lakes. Why should anyone, let alone a scientist,  presume that something as complex as the rut of the whitetail deer happen each year at the same time? My point was just plain old anecdotal time in the woods, recording how the rut unfolds here each year (since the mid-70s) makes it clearly evident that the rut peaks at different times each year within a three-week window. 

 

[Water Rat]

I won't pretend I can predict the rut , but I always try to hunt from Election Day thru Veteran's Day.

That's the magical week or so for me.

[nyslowhand]

It would be interesting if the DEC would add a graph to their annual Harvest Report, Bucks harvested by date. There is one already, but it's all deer harvested by date as a % of the total # reported. Suppose you could interpret harvest by date increases as also meaning an increase in bucks killed. Maybe!??! In the graph I mentioned there is a spike ~Oct 20 thru ~Nov 20 of harvest %s, with a slightly higher spike the 1st couple weeks of Nov.

 

Believe a lot of the confusion or frustration of when to place the rut is merely how each of us defines it. Aren't there 3 primary ruts, early, main and late? With an occasional very late or 2nd estrous does around. Within each rut, isn't there 3 main stages, seeking, chasing and tending? I've harvested the majority of the bucks I've gotten over the years within a couple week period. So I probably have had the best luck in the seeking stage or possibly when the BBs were between does looking around for another. Not sure I could relate that info to the actual rut timeframe. Nor am I too sure this can be done from a tree stand on a micro level. Have to agree with Mr. Duke, they are wild animals, not on a schedule and at the mercy of many outside influences, like weather, intrusions, full moon, etc.

[G-Man]

Harvest data goes up as more hunters enter the woods I know a lot of people that don't hunt till november, or take vacation for the "rut" to go by simple increase in take only.shows more hunters afield.

Nothing will ever be know for sure unless mandatory checks are done with the question of how many and what days do you hunt.

[Buckstopshere]

I won't pretend I can predict the rut , but I always try to hunt from Election Day thru Veteran's Day.

That's the magical week or so for me.

 

Last year, that was the time. I remember Veteran's Day last year, 11/11/14, all the best bucks in my areas were on their feet, running does and hitting their scrapes, all day long.

 

But, this year, the rut will be different because the Full Moon is not at the same time. This year, the bucks will be going bonkers around Election Day, the end of it.  But by Veteran's Day, this year, they will be locked down.

[Buckstopshere]

It would be interesting if the DEC would add a graph to their annual Harvest Report, Bucks harvested by date. There is one already, but it's all deer harvested by date as a % of the total # reported. Suppose you could interpret harvest by date increases as also meaning an increase in bucks killed. Maybe!??! In the graph I mentioned there is a spike ~Oct 20 thru ~Nov 20 of harvest %s, with a slightly higher spike the 1st couple weeks of Nov.

 

Believe a lot of the confusion or frustration of when to place the rut is merely how each of us defines it. Aren't there 3 primary ruts, early, main and late? With an occasional very late or 2nd estrous does around. Within each rut, isn't there 3 main stages, seeking, chasing and tending? I've harvested the majority of the bucks I've gotten over the years within a couple week period. So I probably have had the best luck in the seeking stage or possibly when the BBs were between does looking around for another. Not sure I could relate that info to the actual rut timeframe. Nor am I too sure this can be done from a tree stand on a micro level. Have to agree with Mr. Duke, they are wild animals, not on a schedule and at the mercy of many outside influences, like weather, intrusions, full moon, etc.

Right. Every year there are three primary ruts as you say, I call them rut spikes. Sometimes, the first one is significant, but most times it is minor. The second spike is the big one, and the third rut spike in December can be hot. I remember years ago arrowing one of my biggest bucks as it chased an estrous doe fawn. There were five bucks shagging that little doe, three of them shooters.

 

The template of three rut peaks can be moved back and forth on the calendar, some years they are all the same and we call it a "trickle rut." This year the best rut hunting of the year will be between Halloween and Election Day, here in the Northeast and the Midwest. Is that saying their won't be slobs killed before or after? Watch when the hunting forums light up this year.

 

I jump back and forth to a number of state's deer hunting message boards. Very trackable....when somebody jumps on a message board screaming, "It's on!!!!" Big bucks running does at 1 pm, right next to the Walmart, etc." I have an Excel spread sheet that goes back about 15 years with that data entered. Interesting date correlations. Yes, I am a whitetail hunting nut. I just want to know when is the best time to be in the woods with the highest potential for arrowing one of the brusiers I get on camera. 

[wooly]

I haven't read a "wrong" reply to this thread yet.

I am however skeptical when I hear someone say bucks are "chasing" in their area.

Honestly...., I think there's a lot of hunters who have no idea what the chasing phase really is.

[Buckstopshere]

I haven't read a "wrong" reply to this thread yet.

I am however skeptical when I hear someone say bucks are "chasing" in their area.

Honestly...., I think there's a lot of hunters who have no idea what the chasing phase really is.

 

I couldn't agree more. But, I believe that the percentage of hunters that "jump the gun" when they see the bachelor groups breaking up runs true through each season, statistically, if you know what I mean. All kinds of bucks chasing bucks and it has been my experience that sometimes what I thought was a buck chasing a doe was really a bigger antlered buck chasing a subdominate with tiny antlers, or especially in my neck of the woods, broken off. I killed three bucks, each without antlers, expecting it to be a solitary dry doe, only to have it turn out to be a buck...antlerless!

 

 

I made this little video a few years ago, sorry, I got carried away with the music and drama.

 

Edited August 24, 2015 by Buckstopshere