Rut predictions

[Buckstopshere]

Are you serious? Look, if you want to look as studies that track deer movement every 15 minutes for 365 days and plot them out to show when they are moving, where they are going, etc and say its inconclusive, well, I dont know what to tell you. There are plenty of other studies out there, I linked a few.

 

Cost and manpower are getting smaller by the day, there are more studies running right now. Id be willing to put money on the conclusions they draw.

 

I get why you refuse to see the light, its because you write about and sell your moon theory, so you have to stick by your guns. Its all good. Ill stick to looking at verifiable evidence.

 

Have you ever studied the problems with GPS radio tracking? There are huge problems with it. I don't need to go into them here. Suffice it to be a real problem, oversold and over-hyped and over-priced at currently $10,000 an animal. And the price is going up.

 

I do not sell my moon theory. If I had my druthers, I would rather have someone prove me wrong. Then I could simply write about the rut always happening at the same time each year. Would make life simple. But I can't, no matter how much I wish it was true. Truth is, you have not hunted enough to know that the rut takes place at different times, in a three week swing, each year and that it can be predicted by following the moon.

 

I stick by my guns...my rifles, 'loaders, and shotguns...especially with deer blood on my hands...;o)

 

Seriously, I am really offended that you would think that I would write something that was not true to the best of my understanding. Being proven wrong is not a crushing blow to my ego, on the contrary, show me the error of my ways and I will stand corrected and grow from it.

 

 

[nyslowhand]

Strictly out of my own curiosity, do you know off-hand of any other mammal, reptile or fish that its' breeding time frame (or even possibly mass migrations) is influenced by any specific full moon? Is this strictly a whitetail phenomena? 

 

If you hunt the rut predicted per Charlie's moon & are typically successful, who am I to criticize! More power to you! I tend to prefer the period when the bucks are cruzin' (seeking), so my ideal & most successful time in the stand might be offset somewhat from what other hunters define as their "prime-time". Yeah, there is an annual swing, but IMHO somewhat less than you mentioned. As long as we're out in the woods when we think the opportunities are the best according to our past experiences, we'll all will be happy campers hunters! 

[Doc]

I have to say that I have little interest in that wacky, running through the woods, breeding time of year. Any deer that I have ever gotten at that time of year was just a very lucky encounter that involved no skill whatsoever. In fact on those lucky kills, I probably should have bought a lottery ticket that day. How many deer at that time of year have I watched hundreds of yards away zig-zagging and running flat out nowhere near any trails. If the object were to just see deer that would be alright, but me with my trusty bow really needs a little more of a break than that, and a lot more aspects that are a bit more predictable.

 

So guys can spend all the time they want worrying about how to predict that frantic time of the breeding season, and I likely will have the same success as they do, just counting on some random stroke of luck. Try working on the seeking phase of the rut where daytime buck movement increases and they are still in a bit of a routine. That is the time of the year when I can maybe turn that knowledge into success.

[Buckstopshere]

Strictly out of my own curiosity, do you know off-hand of any other mammal, reptile or fish that its' breeding time frame (or even possibly mass migrations) is influenced by any specific full moon? Is this strictly a whitetail phenomena? 

 

If you hunt the rut predicted per Charlie's moon & are typically successful, who am I to criticize! More power to you! I tend to prefer the period when the bucks are cruzin' (seeking), so my ideal & most successful time in the stand might be offset somewhat from what other hunters define as their "prime-time". Yeah, there is an annual swing, but IMHO somewhat less than you mentioned. As long as we're out in the woods when we think the opportunities are the best according to our past experiences, we'll all will be happy campers hunters! 

 

Grunions come up and "dance" on the California beaches under the Full Moon. Sea turtles too time their egg laying to coincide with the Full Moon. Species of birds including petrels use the Full Moon to time their migrations. Mammals including we humans are affected by the Full Moon (see link above.) Saturday's (Aug. 29) full moon is what they call a Super Moon because of its closeness to the earth. And this August full moon is one of three Super moons with the closest and largest of the three being September's Moon that sets the biological clocks in whitetails.

 

So as a test this year, just an unscientific anecdotal one, let's see who is right and who is wrong. I say that the time period around Halloween to Election Day is when your rut will peak. And this year...by Veteran's Day, it will have fizzled out. Remember last year as Slowhand noted, Veterans Day was smoking hot and the peak of the running time when he killed his buck. Last year the Full Moon was a bit later (Nov. 6.)

 

Edited August 27, 2015 by Buckstopshere

[Buckstopshere]

I have to say that I have little interest in that wacky, running through the woods, breeding time of year. Any deer that I have ever gotten at that time of year was just a very lucky encounter that involved no skill whatsoever. In fact on those lucky kills, I probably should have bought a lottery ticket that day. How many deer at that time of year have I watched hundreds of yards away zig-zagging and running flat out nowhere near any trails. If the object were to just see deer that would be alright, but me with my trusty bow really needs a little more of a break than that, and a lot more aspects that are a bit more predictable.

 

So guys can spend all the time they want worrying about how to predict that frantic time of the breeding season, and I likely will have the same success as they do, just counting on some random stroke of luck. Try working on the seeking phase of the rut where daytime buck movement increases and they are still in a bit of a routine. That is the time of the year when I can maybe turn that knowledge into success.

 

Right you are. It is a crazy time and a time to be ready at any time. But I have found that all the big bucks in every stretch of woods are on their feet, running their scrape lines and does day and night for a couple days. The rest of the time it is very difficult to see one, let alone kill one. So that is why pinpointing the rut is important to me.

 

[wooly]

I have to say that I have little interest in that wacky, running through the woods, breeding time of year. Any deer that I have ever gotten at that time of year was just a very lucky encounter that involved no skill whatsoever. In fact on those lucky kills, I probably should have bought a lottery ticket that day. How many deer at that time of year have I watched hundreds of yards away zig-zagging and running flat out nowhere near any trails. If the object were to just see deer that would be alright, but me with my trusty bow really needs a little more of a break than that, and a lot more aspects that are a bit more predictable.

 

So guys can spend all the time they want worrying about how to predict that frantic time of the breeding season, and I likely will have the same success as they do, just counting on some random stroke of luck. Try working on the seeking phase of the rut where daytime buck movement increases and they are still in a bit of a routine. That is the time of the year when I can maybe turn that knowledge into success.

 

Given a little history with any piece of property, you may find that this frantic random chasing can be as predictable as your most worn deer trail.

Witnessing it once from a distance is the first step to formulating a plan that may take years to perfect. If you're unwilling to make a move, you'll likely be missing out on some exciting hunts and instead just be watching deer franticly running around "off the trail" as you say.

 

When I know there's hot doe in the area, I have several places on the property I want to be. Like clockwork, bucks use these areas to flush, isolate, and corral doe year after year. Being prepared and observant enough to put yourself in one of these areas when the time comes IS NOT something I'd call dumb luck rather a pattern that becomes obvious over a period of seasons. Trust me, the first time you have 5,10,20, or 30 bucks chase a hot doe past your ground stand, there will be plenty of opportunities even with your "trusty bow".

Sometimes it's a matter of lifting your butt off the bucket, or climbing out of your stand to get in position for a shot. If you don't think THAT'S exciting.., or there's no skill involved to put you there in the first place then I don't know what to tell ya!

 

As for the second sentence I bolded above, it has it's time and place as well in any hunters bag of tricks no doubt and many great bucks die every year to that tactic.

My only point was, if you were unsuccessful in that phase, or chose to let a few marginal bucks walk during that period, well.., your hands might be tied when the rut shifts gears into the chase phase and action fizzles out around you.

[WNYBuckHunter]

Have you ever studied the problems with GPS radio tracking? There are huge problems with it. I don't need to go into them here. Suffice it to be a real problem, oversold and over-hyped and over-priced at currently $10,000 an animal. And the price is going up.

 

I do not sell my moon theory. If I had my druthers, I would rather have someone prove me wrong. Then I could simply write about the rut always happening at the same time each year. Would make life simple. But I can't, no matter how much I wish it was true. Truth is, you have not hunted enough to know that the rut takes place at different times, in a three week swing, each year and that it can be predicted by following the moon.

 

I stick by my guns...my rifles, 'loaders, and shotguns...especially with deer blood on my hands...;o)

 

Seriously, I am really offended that you would think that I would write something that was not true to the best of my understanding. Being proven wrong is not a crushing blow to my ego, on the contrary, show me the error of my ways and I will stand corrected and grow from it.

 

If you are going to refute something, you might want to come with evidence. Just saying there are problems, etc is just heresay from someone with vested interest in knocking real science.

 

Sorry, but technology prices do not rise, they fall.

 

You do sell your moon theory, you write for at least one publication, and Im sure you arent doing it strictly from the goodness of your heart.

 

Im not going to sit here and spoon feed you everything, I lead a pretty busy life and dont have time to do so. I pointed you in the direction, if you truly want to learn, youll do youre due diligence, just like I have.

 

[nyslowhand]

OMG, a test! I can't stand the pressure! LOL. Not to back away from a challenge, but you already picked the timeframe I typically see the most bucks that I can/could actually have a shot at. Other than the smaller bucks that are out & about earlier, ~mid-Oct. Halloween has always been a traditional landmark for me to get very serious about hunting mature bucks. The swing for me has been approx -5-6/+7-8 days. IF I were to plot the bucks I've killed on a bell curve, the peak/plateau would probably be the 1st few days of Nov.Naturally with a disclaimer applied; in my experience, habitat I hunt, surrounded by orchards, no other agr crops/food plots and hours I generally hunt. Finally, I don't hunt scrapes or rub lines. I hunt where the does reside or typically travel per historical sightings &/or the current year's photos. Nothing like how you hunt, huh??

[Buckstopshere]

OMG, a test! I can't stand the pressure! LOL. Not to back away from a challenge, but you already picked the timeframe I typically see the most bucks that I can/could actually have a shot at. Other than the smaller bucks that are out & about earlier, ~mid-Oct. Halloween has always been a traditional landmark for me to get very serious about hunting mature bucks. The swing for me has been approx -5-6/+7-8 days. IF I were to plot the bucks I've killed on a bell curve, the peak/plateau would probably be the 1st few days of Nov.Naturally with a disclaimer applied; in my experience, habitat I hunt, surrounded by orchards, no other agr crops/food plots and hours I generally hunt. Finally, I don't hunt scrapes or rub lines. I hunt where the does reside or typically travel per historical sightings &/or the current year's photos. Nothing like how you hunt, huh??

 

Well, I just thought this year would be a good test because it will be an early rut, compared to last year's late rut. And that is the main reason we did not see many fawns during May this past gobbler season. Most of them hit the ground in June, a couple weeks later than usual. But next spring, we should see a bumper crop of fawns during turkey season, since the gestation period is 200 days, give or take a few.

 

[Doc]

Given a little history with any piece of property, you may find that this frantic random chasing can be as predictable as your most worn deer trail.

Witnessing it once from a distance is the first step to formulating a plan that may take years to perfect. If you're unwilling to make a move, you'll likely be missing out on some exciting hunts and instead just be watching deer franticly running around "off the trail" as you say.

 

When I know there's hot doe in the area, I have several places on the property I want to be. Like clockwork, bucks use these areas to flush, isolate, and corral doe year after year. Being prepared and observant enough to put yourself in one of these areas when the time comes IS NOT something I'd call dumb luck rather a pattern that becomes obvious over a period of seasons. Trust me, the first time you have 5,10,20, or 30 bucks chase a hot doe past your ground stand, there will be plenty of opportunities even with your "trusty bow".

Sometimes it's a matter of lifting your butt off the bucket, or climbing out of your stand to get in position for a shot. If you don't think THAT'S exciting.., or there's no skill involved to put you there in the first place then I don't know what to tell ya!

 

As for the second sentence I bolded above, it has it's time and place as well in any hunters bag of tricks no doubt and many great bucks die every year to that tactic.

My only point was, if you were unsuccessful in that phase, or chose to let a few marginal bucks walk during that period, well.., your hands might be tied when the rut shifts gears into the chase phase and action fizzles out around you.

It really has not worked out that way in our area. The buck may initiate the chase, but from that point on the doe leads him on a very random path that truly is designed solely for escape, any way she can, and it doesn't follow any planned out path or even go in a straight line designed for a secret pre-determined rendezvous. It seldom is even a straight line. I have even seen them enter an area and run a few complete circles before heading out in some other random direction. Yes, I have spent a bit over 50 years hunting the same couple hundred acres of hill and valley, so there aren't really a whole lot of activities that go on there that I am not very familiar with. I've watched enough of chases to realize that no two does will ever use the same direction through the woods twice even when running through the same part of the woods. If only the chasing really was all that predictable, hunting would be easy.....lol.

[Buckstopshere]

If you are going to refute something, you might want to come with evidence. Just saying there are problems, etc is just heresay from someone with vested interest in knocking real science.

 

Sorry, but technology prices do not rise, they fall.

 

You do sell your moon theory, you write for at least one publication, and Im sure you arent doing it strictly from the goodness of your heart.

 

Im not going to sit here and spoon feed you everything, I lead a pretty busy life and dont have time to do so. I pointed you in the direction, if you truly want to learn, youll do youre due diligence, just like I have.

 

I have supplied plenty of links and when I do, you appear to not understand them, brushing them off and saying  they are not relevant. Well, I disagree. You are one of the many who swallow the latest technology hook line and sinker. The facts you cherish are interpretations. I know that is hard for you to comprehend. No, I get paid well for what I write in many publications across the country and have for many years. I don't consider sharing information and links "spoon feeding." Why are you so negative and confrontational? You think you know it all. How many deer have you killed. I've killed hundreds. Your demeaning and insulting comments make me not want to respond to you anymore.

[NFA-ADK]

I have witnessed how the moon affects other animals like fish and birds.   It is just a trigger for the Whitetail doe to come into heat.  It is how doe use the proper calendar for best birth timing.  (That is their clock.)  They are affected by low presser systems, steady high presser, high temperatures, food source, availability and nourishment, cover, presser from people, other deer and predators.  So why wouldn't they all come into heat at the same time?  Many in groups do but not all groups do at the same time.  Add in the health of the doe, age and size of group and body cycle, well plain and simple each animal is different and one area could see the doe come into heat later than another, add in early and late doe and second or third cycles and you could basically see anything at any time from mid October to January.

 

Each one of us has our own perspectives on what we "see" in the woods and each one of us can come up with something that will deflate any "theory".  I guess this is why we call them animals, beasts etc.  No one is exactly the same and each has a personality of their own and they can brake any rules we make for them.  This is why IF you can observer your prey you can get a better understanding of how they work but that does not mean it works that way everywhere.  The old saying  "My Neck Of The Woods" was never so appropriate.

 

 

[NFA-ADK]

It will be interesting to see if this does play out!

Last year, that was the time. I remember Veteran's Day last year, 11/11/14, all the best bucks in my areas were on their feet, running does and hitting their scrapes, all day long.

 

But, this year, the rut will be different because the Full Moon is not at the same time. This year, the bucks will be going bonkers around Election Day, the end of it.  But by Veteran's Day, this year, they will be locked down.

 

[gjs4]

I have all of Kroll's and most of Ozaga's books, lots of knowledge. I have been reading Ozaga's scientific reports in the JWM for 25 years. Have you read Kroll's book on how the moon influences the rut?

I'm afraid that some of those who work for the DEC and other government agencies tend to look down on the understandings of those of us who are objective and not subject to the whims and sways of government. There are a lot of serious deer hunters whose observations and understandings of the woods may even transcend the knowledge of some of those who take a few courses on wildlife management at a school and mistakenly think they know everything because they logged a couple courses. A degree in Wildlife Management, while generally laudatory really needs temper in the real woods.

I took a number of Chemistry, Biology, Zoology, Anthropology and Astronomy classes in college to name a few, but those college credits certainly do not give me any right to beat my chest and think that I know more than anyone else. I hope I am playing fair.

When the rut in the Northeast and Midwest peaks, the internet message boards light up. I know that it is only anecdotal. But look at the hundreds of serious hunters all over the states...New York, Pa., Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Kansas. They jump on the hunting message boards and describe in emotional detail their experiences of watching the rut unfold. Are some mistaken? Undoubtedly, but as they do not write these reports on September or December they confirm the rut we experience each year, overall. They hone in on the rut because they are serious in reporting what they experience, hunting.

Which Kroll book is that?

Forgive me if I missed it in your posts but can you throw out the peak breeding dates for some other past years back farther than 14 (in wNY) and when this years will be?

Thank you so much.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Edited August 28, 2015 by gjs4

[Buckstopshere]

Which Kroll book is that?

Forgive me if I missed it in your posts but can you throw out the peak breeding dates for some other past years back farther than 14 (in wNY) and when this years will be?

Thank you so much.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

I have read and reread many of his books, especially "Aging and Judging Trophy Whitetails" and his great book, "Solving the Mysteries of Deer Movement" where he validates the Full Moon as setting the timing of the rut. Anyone interested in understanding whitetails should buy it and learn how one of the most respected Whitetail researchers in the country explains how the light from the full moon affects deer movement. Get the book on Amazon for about $38.00.

 

Here is a quote from it, "the significance of the harvest moon is far greater than a celebration. It marks the beginning of the time when nights are longer than days. Because deer are short day breeders, this (sic. his underling) is the cue they need in temperate regions to time breeding. Let's again review how the brain, using the third eye or the pineal gland, measures day length..."

 

and, "A deer "wants" to breed within a certain window of time, and tries to synchronize the rut on the appearance of the Hunters Moon (sic first full moon in October.)"

 

Dr. Kroll is now in charge of the Minnesota deer program, appointed by Gov. Scott Walker, taking the ultimate authority away from the DNR there after the catastrophic decline in deer numbers there.

 

And did you know that Wayne Laroche, the originator of the Charlie Alshiemer's moon theory and long time head of the Vermont DNR has now recently been appointed to run Pa.'s Bureau of Wildlife Management? So not all Wildlife managers look down on the moon theory, actually two of the most prominent in the country espouse it.

 

2015: https://www.facebook.com/Oak.Duke.whitetail.page/posts/352399868299206

 

2014:  http://www.wellsvilledaily.com/article/20140420/Sports/140429964

 

2013: http://www.crookstontimes.com/article/201

 

2012: http://www.wellsvilledaily.com/article/20120126/NEWS/301269998

 

2009: http://abington.wickedlocal.com/article/20090731/News/307319959

 

2008: http://www.leavenworthtimes.com/article/20080919/NEWS/309199808

 

You are welcome!

[wooly]

If it 's any consolation to ANYONE.... I haven't clicked on ANY one of the links in this post yet. (and I have no intentions to) sorry for all the effort put into finding them.

One thing I'll never do is base a rut hunt off someone elses observations since they're not seeing the same things I'm seeing.

I'd hate for my own observations be clouded by what I "should be seeing" when I'm not ......and what "I am seeing" when "I shouldn't be" according to ...well...whoever knows better,lol

 

Get out there and hunt the ruts many phases with all the different challenges it throws at you along the way.

When you think you got it figured out..... face it,... you don't, but you may be one step closer to it so keep your eyes peeled.

When you're still open to translating experiences and encounters to carry over into the next season is when the REAL learning begins.

 

Sometimes this stuff takes time to sink in.

Remember, some of us don't "LIVE" out there every day...., deer do.

The more time you have to live in their world, the more you'll understand it.

[nyslowhand]

2013: http://www.crookstontimes.com/article/201

Seems to be an issue with this link..!?!

[Buckstopshere]

Seems to be an issue with this link..!?!

 

Sorry about that. I tested it, and it worked. Here is another one.

 

http://www.eveningtribune.com/article/20130127/NEWS/301279944

 

[grampy]

If it 's any consolation to ANYONE.... I haven't clicked on ANY one of the links in this post yet. (and I have no intentions to) sorry for all the effort put into finding them.

One thing I'll never do is base a rut hunt off someone elses observations since they're not seeing the same things I'm seeing.

I'd hate for my own observations be clouded by what I "should be seeing" when I'm not ......and what "I am seeing" when "I shouldn't be" according to ...well...whoever knows better,lol

 

Get out there and hunt the ruts many phases with all the different challenges it throws at you along the way.

When you think you got it figured out..... face it,... you don't, but you may be one step closer to it so keep your eyes peeled.

When you're still open to translating experiences and encounters to carry over into the next season is when the REAL learning begins.

 

Sometimes this stuff takes time to sink in.

Remember, some of us don't "LIVE" out there every day...., deer do.

The more time you have to live in their world, the more you'll understand it.

 

Couldn't agree more with this post wooly! 

 

I'll go with my own experience and observations in the areas I hunt. And leave all the speculations to the "experts".

[The_Field_Ager]

 I have several places on the property I want to be. Like clockwork, bucks use these areas to flush, isolate, and corral doe year after year. 

 

 

Yep, last year I discovered one such love nest after a couple of rut encounters going back a couple of seasons. I have a stand right in it this year to try and take advantage.

Edited August 28, 2015 by Papist

[The_Field_Ager]

One thing I notice about a lot of the expert articles out there is their obsession with early morning and late evening hunts. This is not something I experience most years in my patch. My best action has been mid to late afternoon, consistently year in and out.

[WNYBuckHunter]

I have supplied plenty of links and when I do, you appear to not understand them, brushing them off and saying  they are not relevant. Well, I disagree. You are one of the many who swallow the latest technology hook line and sinker. The facts you cherish are interpretations. I know that is hard for you to comprehend. No, I get paid well for what I write in many publications across the country and have for many years. I don't consider sharing information and links "spoon feeding." Why are you so negative and confrontational? You think you know it all. How many deer have you killed. I've killed hundreds. Your demeaning and insulting comments make me not want to respond to you anymore.

 

Plenty of links? You supplied ONE that had nothing to do with the subject. You just said that there are problems with the GPS studies, so offer up facts to backup your statement. My comprehension skills are just fine, thanks.

 

I dont know everything, but I have researched this subject quite a bit, and I offered the info I found up to you, thats all. You are the one saying that the GPS studies, etc are invalid or problematic and not offering up any proof.

 

So now facts (data collected and alligned with moon phases that show deer movement has no correlation with it, average breeding dates collected through fetus backdating that show no correlation to the moon) are "interpretations? Whatever. Its obvious you dont care to accept the facts, and Im not trying to change your mind, just offering up information, which is mostly for others so that they can look at both sides of things and decide which makes more sense.

 

As far as demeaning or insulting comments go, I made none.

 

Im not sure how many deer Ive killed, I havent kept score, but its a pretty high number. Im pretty sure you have been hunting for a longer time than I have, so thats not surprising that your number is higher, whats your point?

[growalot]

Regardless of the rut...I predict many early Oct buck...big buck, will be taken this year...that is due to day time activity seen since they started the end of their rack growing...we will see....

[growalot]

mine have been 10-2pm

[wdswtr]

So let me get this right, a buck looks up in the sky every night at the moon, then one night he sees that full moon in the fall and realizes it is time to get his funk on?    I wonder if all living creatures do this, I wonder if menstrual cycles are all based of the moon too.lol  For the record Id be hard pressed to say that scientific data based and gps tracking takes a back seat to moon phase observations about deer movement.  I also  think to have this discussion everyone first needs to understand what the phases of the rut actually are. 

Edited September 16, 2015 by wdswtr