Deer take numbers shows the Decline.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dom]

28 minutes ago, Four Season Whitetail's said:

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Do you think it's do to lower amount of hunters or is our deer herd/numbers in NY not that great.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

Do you think it's do to lower amount of hunters or is our deer herd/numbers in NY not that great.

Probably a bit of both. I know numbers suck up here in the North property and low down in 8M area but not near as bad as the North. I found it kinda strange with the doe tag numbers of givin and killed and then the adult doe take?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NonTypical]

How do they know what the harvest reporting rate is?

[Dom]

5 minutes ago, NonTypical said:

How do they know what the harvest reporting rate is?

Good question cause I'd like to know how they survey the amount of deer per area and the state.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

15 minutes ago, Dom said:

Good question cause I'd like to know how they survey the amount of deer per area and the state.

That has always been just a guess. And always a wrong one at that.  I think the reporting part is decided somehow with...The numbers of hunters by the numbers of harvested reported deer by this and by that and come up with a reporting number.

[Curmudgeon]

Did you notice that the decline is almost entirely anterless deer?

[goosifer]

Take of mature bucks up, antlerless/dmp deer down. Interesting how bow is down, crossbow is up, but still, overall bow take was slightly down. Hard to tell the impact from the demand side vs. the supply side. 

Does DEC present these numbers over a longer period of time? Not sure if these are trends or just one-year flukes.

 

[jperch]

1 hour ago, NonTypical said:

How do they know what the harvest reporting rate is?

From the report, available on the DEC website:

Deer harvest data are gathered from two main sources: harvest reports required of all successful hunters and DEC's examination of more than 14,000 harvested deer at check stations and meat processors. Statewide harvest estimates are made by cross-referencing these two data sources and calculating the total harvest from the reporting rate for each zone and tag type.

It's statistics - more than just a guess.  I see that the combined archery + crossbow take was fairly steady, which makes some sense to me.  The fields around here are loaded with deer now in the afternoons, Cayuga County.  They are hungry.  I am not seeing many turkeys yet. 

[Jeremy K]

Last 2 years of bow season weather was terrible for hunting ,at least on the weekends it was.

[The_Real_TCIII]

Last 2 years of bow season weather was terrible for hunting ,at least on the weekends it was.

Agreed, terrible. Early October blows.

[NonTypical]

32 minutes ago, jperch said:

From the report, available on the DEC website:

Deer harvest data are gathered from two main sources: harvest reports required of all successful hunters and DEC's examination of more than 14,000 harvested deer at check stations and meat processors. Statewide harvest estimates are made by cross-referencing these two data sources and calculating the total harvest from the reporting rate for each zone and tag type.

It's statistics - more than just a guess.  I see that the combined archery + crossbow take was fairly steady, which makes some sense to me.  The fields around here are loaded with deer now in the afternoons, Cayuga County.  They are hungry.  I am not seeing many turkeys yet. 

So what they're saying is that out of 14,000 deer checked, only 7,000 were reported? Did they issue 7,000 tickets for not reporting a harvest? I wonder...

[jperch]

5 minutes ago, NonTypical said:

So what they're saying is that out of 14,000 deer checked, only 7,000 were reported? Did they issue 7,000 tickets for not reporting a harvest? I wonder...

I have no idea how many tickets they issue but have been told by a processor to be sure to not forget to report for that reason.  I think the tags are scannable?  Anyway, I imagine that what they do is estimate the reporting rate for different units and combine these, taking the size of the units into account, to get an overall reporting rate.  Almost everyone has access to a computer or smart phone these days, seems like it would be easy to set up a low cost mandatory reporting system, successful or not.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

43 minutes ago, jperch said:

I have no idea how many tickets they issue but have been told by a processor to be sure to not forget to report for that reason.  I think the tags are scannable?  Anyway, I imagine that what they do is estimate the reporting rate for different units and combine these, taking the size of the units into account, to get an overall reporting rate.  Almost everyone has access to a computer or smart phone these days, seems like it would be easy to set up a low cost mandatory reporting system, successful or not.

Yup because their so called educated guess is way off in some areas. Up here more do not report than do report.  We know so many that have not reported in years and that no doubt throws off their guess.

[NonTypical]

Just some quick math and if the harvest reporting rate was reduced to 45%, that would put the harvest nearly identical to last year. So does anyone think that they can make the total take anything that they want by just changing some percentage points?

[NonTypical]

And yet in this link, it states that thru the third week of the regular season deer numbers were up from 2016.

https://www.dec.ny.gov/press/112111.html

So what happened?

Edited April 4, 2018 by NonTypical

[Steve D]

For what is worth...Tells me they really don't have a clue. Just making a "educated" guess and I use that term loosely.

Commissioner Seggos said. "Even though it is too early to say if this reflects an increase in hunter compliance with mandatory reporting rules, an increase in harvest, or both, it is clear that our efforts to foster harvest reporting through our Take It · Tag It · Report It campaign are working. I applaud all hunters for complying with our harvest reporting requirements, which provide invaluable data for DEC's conservation staff to improve wildlife management in the state."

 

[Larry]

If you look at the break down it was the doe harvest that drove the numbers down. That was with an increase in DMP’s I know in 9p they gave out fewer DMPs. Without looking at all the dada yet I think what they may have done was increase DMP’s in WMU’s like in the lake planes with limited access and decreased DMP’s in wmu’s where access may be easier

[Larry]

Hey four seasons unless you have data proving the DEC data is wrong then you are just blowing smoke. If you do have the data then I think we all would like to see it. The Dec does use statistical modeling that has been peer reviewed.  Modeling has to be used because we as hunters don’t do are job by reporting are harvest. So if you don’t like how the DEC gets there numbers then report your harest.

[DirtTime]

6 hours ago, Four Season Whitetail's said:

That has always been just a guess. And always a wrong one at that.  I think the reporting part is decided somehow with...The numbers of hunters by the numbers of harvested reported deer by this and by that and come up with a reporting number.

Is there a breakdown of harvested deer by WMU? No sarcasm or ill will meant, honest question. Would be interesting to see the harvest numbers from ( as an example ) 4J, 3A/N, 7F/M, 9H/M/T in the SZ, compared to say, 6J/F and 5H/F up North.

I know this would be impossible to calculate, but I would love to know the ratio of harvested deer on public land VS private land. 

[Four Season Whitetail's]

18 minutes ago, Larry said:

Hey four seasons unless you have data proving the DEC data is wrong then you are just blowing smoke. If you do have the data then I think we all would like to see it. The Dec does use statistical modeling that has been peer reviewed.  Modeling has to be used because we as hunters don’t do are job by reporting are harvest. So if you don’t like how the DEC gets there numbers then report your harest.

DEC is now and have always used a guessing game when it comes to deer numbers. Like years ago they used deer counts at winter deer yards? Like that is going to even be close.  Until they make it law that hunters must report their kills and return unused tags they will continue to only guess at the numbers the think are out there.

If other hunters do not want to report their kills then thats on them but thats just another number the DEC guess at--The % of hunters that do not report.

Not really shocked..Ny DEC has always been slacking rather it be DEC officers or better ways of keeping track of the deer herds in all parts of the state. 

[Four Season Whitetail's]

Is there a breakdown of harvested deer by WMU? No sarcasm or ill will meant, honest question. Would be interesting to see the harvest numbers from ( as an example ) 4J, 3A/N, 7F/M, 9H/M/T in the SZ, compared to say, 6J/F and 5H/F up North.
I know this would be impossible to calculate, but I would love to know the ratio of harvested deer on public land VS private land. 

. From DEC Site



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DirtTime]

6 minutes ago, Four Season Whitetail's said:

. From DEC Site



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thank you. Also, I just found the PDF.

[DirtTime]

This is pretty interesting:

http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/wildlife_pdf/2017deerrpt.pdf

 

https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/8302.html

 

I'm not sure I agree with these numbers 100%, but very interesting to look at a map of the WMU's, and compare those numbers to regional land. 

[erussell]

11 hours ago, Curmudgeon said:

Did you notice that the decline is almost entirely anterless deer?

I havent shot  a doe in yrs. Let them pass. I dont need that much deer meat anymore and the doe numbers  where i hunt are pretty low anymore.