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Weather for Opening Day STier Gun 2018

phillifan22

By phillifan22,
in Deer Hunting

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phillifan22 Newbie

phillifan22

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NWS has chatham @ 4-7 inches as of this morning. Last night the outlook was 2-5, yesterday afternoon 1-3. I like how this is trending!

Yup. Anywhere from Albany and south near the Hudson is really tricky for snow forecasts for this storm. Some warm air aloft might come up and change the precip to sleet or freezing rain rather than snow.


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BizCT
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I envy you. The only job in the world besides being a baseball hitter where you can go 3/10 and keep your job! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

grampy
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I really think it's cool, to have our very own meteorologist!   

TreeGuy
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So rain or snow, or potentially clear skies. Also temps could be anywhere from 20-40 possibly even warmer...... Got it Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

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phillifan22 Newbie

phillifan22

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 Here are the three NWS offices current forecasts. They look very reasonable to me. Could be a sharp NW cutoff for this storm, so areas in WNY may see less snow than this. Also, areas east of I-88, and south of Albany along I-87 may see less snow due to warm air aloft nosing in to SE NY and leading to sleet or freezing rain instead of snow. StormTotalSnowWeb_BUF_4castmed_11_15_15Z.thumb.png.2f9433e405de94410d8375dae58ffe6d.pngStormTotalSnowWeb_BGM_4castmed_11_15_15Z.thumb.png.e9b8d1d9752e90b60a52dabdc684c0b4.pngStormTotalSnowWeb_ALY_4castmed_11_15_15Z.thumb.png.98f7e2828ec8a0f6cc9045b057e5e8fc.png

 

Another thing to note is that temperatures will warm on Friday during the afternoon into the upper 30s, leading to melting and compaction of this fresh snow. With temperatures then falling to at or below freezing overnight into Saturday morning, it could be a crunchy walk in, and wet sit for Saturday morning.

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phillifan22 Newbie

phillifan22

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How is this storm going to impact opening day in 3n 3f 3g locations? What are the trends of deer movement?

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Looks like 2-4” of sloppy wet snow and sleet for this storm down there, so I’d imagine by Saturday there’s only an inch or less left cause it will be above 32F after like 7am Friday all the way through Saturday night. However, the highest elevations of those units they might hold on to like 3” of snow if they stay cooler. Im not sure what that will do to deer movement but I’d imagine it won’t impact them much for Saturday/Sunday.


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moog5050 Mentor

moog5050

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On ‎11‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 11:22 AM, phillifan22 said:

 

Since I’m likely the only meteorologist on this forum, I’m gonna do this thread with updates every day or two. We probably won’t know for certain until next Wed or Thu (11/14-11/15) because of the active pattern we are in.

 

I started reading on pg. 2 and thought "is this guy a meteorologist"?  And yes, yes you are.  lol

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grampy Veteran

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phillifan, how does it look for the Albany hilltowns???  I'm just above Thatcher Park, in the town of Knox. Keep hearing different things. From 4 or 5 inches to a foot or more??? Makes a huge difference on where I'll set up for Saturday morning.

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phillifan22 Newbie

phillifan22

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phillifan, how does it look for the Albany hilltowns???  I'm just above Thatcher Park, in the town of Knox. Keep hearing different things. From 4 or 5 inches to a foot or more??? Makes a huge difference on where I'll set up for Saturday morning.

Yeah that’s not surprising. Albany NWS just upgraded the area from winter wx advisory to winter storm warning. So their confidence is increasing in higher snowfall. Based on that, as well as what I’ve looked at, I would expect around 8”. The reason for the spread in forecasts from people is that the precip type may change to sleet at times early Friday morning, lowering the totals from 8” to 4”. And contrary to that, some models have it staying all snow, leading to 10” or more. It’s impossible to say if 4” or 10” is more likely, but I’m personally leaning towards the higher end.
The bigger issue for where you set up is that I think the warmer temperatures Friday afternoon and overnight into Saturday morning (plus the still-warm-ground and consistent winds) will lead to a lot of melting and compaction. So if you get 4” of snow from this storm, you might only have 1” by sunrise Saturday. If you get 10” Friday, you might only have 4-5” by sunrise Saturday. Hope this helps.


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