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2011 Lunar Rut Predictions

SFD33

By SFD33,
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WNYBuckHunter Experienced

WNYBuckHunter

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To guess about the rut using the moon theory, you can use Alsheimer's model.

Basically, it says that the rutting moon, which is the second full moon after the Autumnal Equinox, is the trigger for breeding. The peak of the seeking phase should start 3 to 4 days before the rutting moon (Nov 10 this year) and will last until 3 to 4 days after. The chase phase starts 3 or 4 days after the rutting moon and lasts into the breeding phase. The breeding phase starts about 7 days after the rutting moon and lasts for around 14 days. All of these phases and activity levels will still depend on variables, such as human pressure in the area, buck/doe ratio, temperatures and other weather conditions. You will also sometimes see a secondary rut occur about a month after the rutting moon.

If you have cable or sattelite and get VS, tune into the latest installment of Deer & Deer Hunting TV for Alsheimer's predictions this year.

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G-Man Veteran

G-Man

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i would go with the 4-6th myself... 11-13 is a holiday weekend veterens day..will be a lot of kids out on 4 wheelers, bank holiday more people in woods... i like it quiet..the weekend before it it was me unless you depend on pressure to push them past the tree your in...

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Buckstopshere Newbie

Buckstopshere

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There are a number of rut prediction models, with Alsheimer's being one of them. And there is quite a bit of variance between the projections.

One way to describe the licking branch or "overhanging branch" is that it is the olfactory key to a scrape...much more so than the ground portion of the scrape. There, whitetails exchange biochemical messages. Some believe that there, at the "overhanging branch" whitetails synchronize their hormones as a prelude to the rut.

Determining the best weekend to hunt during the bow season is also partially dependent upon your style of hunting. For instance, if you are a breeding sign hunter, a scrape hunter...then it would be best to hunt the weekend before the Full Moon (whitetails quickly abandon scrapes, once they settle in with the does.) But if you are a food plot guy, or a deer hunter who hunts over food sources...then it would be best to hunt the week of the Full Moon because the bucks will be with the does and no matter what, they all have to eat!

Personally, I'll be hunting both weekends. :)

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biggamefish Community Regular

biggamefish

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I was always told that the second moon was the way to go. It is the light or lack there of that hits some sort sensory in the deers head through the eye that make them start the rut. I always try to take some sort of days off around the second moon. Some times I hit it right and some time I don't.

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phade Mentor

phade

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4-6 or 11-13? Tough call.

Personally, I'd probably go with 11-13. All you need is a warm front and the 4-6 is shot (and that happens once in a while, like last year). You almost always see some solid chasing then...BUT...that's a big gamble with only three days and a warm front is pretty common at some point during that first week of November for 24-48 hrs.

With only three days, I'd go with the 11-13. Statistically speaking, I think the 9 through 11 is usually pointed as the peak of kills. Now, if I had a week...it'd be the 4-11 or 5-15 if I had 10 days. The weather concern is also much less likely.

Whatever you do...with only three days. My rear wouldn't be leaving the woods during daylight at all. Dark to Dark sits sound in order.

Edited by phade
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5.9cummins Newbie

5.9cummins

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As much as i respect Alsheimer for his photography and knowledge i don't buy that the moon has anything to do with the rut. I have read almost all of his books and just cant swallow that the rut will be any different from last year unless the axis of the earth changes. His original theory was based off of work with a fisheries biologist that studied the moon phase effects on the breeding cycle of tropical fish. The tropics doesn't have much of a change in photo period (length of day) due to the proximity to the equator.

The rut is triggered by photo period - I.E. length of day not moon. Cold weather is fuel to the fire.

I will post up a document sent to me by a biologist in Ontario CA. about gestational back dating he has done. The gestation period of a white tail is a given period of time (just like humans) although i don't recall what the period is. Based on roadkill and fawn drop data from the spring you can figure out when the doe's were impregnated and therefore the rut.

Anything other than that is nothing more than speculation.

Just my 2 cents

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phade Mentor

phade

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Interested to see both bits of info. I've been a loyal subscriber to D&DH but let it lapse this summer. It's gotten pretty slim and the articles are starting to stagnate a bit...about the only real interesting stuff is done by Ozoga, etc. Seems like Charles' stuff is a bit repetitive now, but always a good read.

Last year's rut (complete cycle) for me was pretty timid, yet my hunting partner saw quite a bit of action on the same ground at the same time as I hunted. My observations mirrored Charles' predictions...and that was a first for me...but not for my partner. I'm hoping the weather, hunting conditions, etc. all line up this year for a more traditional experience. A couple of those afternoons in the first week of November were absolute drool fests since it was so slow - warm weather though. I saw active chasing on Nov. 2 and 6 mornings and that was it.

Been clinging to Bow & Arrow as the only one that seems to stay fresh.

This year is interesting for me because for the first time since I was in college, I have a considerable amount of vacation time to take for hunting. Usually I was in the 5-7 days off range. Now...I've got 10-15 days to burn. Definitely taking a two week block either first two weeks of November or second and third, and then a couple days for late MZ.

Edited by phade
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Buckstopshere Newbie

Buckstopshere

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5.9 Cummins: Fetal backdating is bad science for a number of reasons: One, there is poor correlation between the different studies; 2, none of the studies that I am familiar with (5) use a large enough sample, and some are way to small: 3, there is no correlation between the peak of the rut in one year and the peak of the rut in another, so there is no correlation or sense in averaging them together. Just bad math. And finally, fawns vary in size just like all animals including humans...as fetuses and at birth. According to the Ohio DNR, buck fawns vary from four to 14 pounds at birth and doe fawns vary from 3 to 8 pounds at birth, so how can a fetal crown-to-rump scale have any validity?...and especially looking at the different races of deer around the country. Such bad science.

But I understand why the test samples are so small. It takes owning and penning a doe, watching her close to see the exact date when she is bred. Allowing the fetus to grow to a certain date. Kill her. Extract fetus, measure it or them (average cases of twins and triplets.) and then you have a mark on the scale. This has to be repeated over and over to arrive at a good, workable scale. I do not think it has been done yet.

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  • 2 weeks later...
steve863 Community Regular

steve863

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I just love reading all these theories. Exactly why are any theories even needed for this? We all know that the brunt of the rut happens in the first 3 weeks of November. That is all we really need to know. That anyone can pinpoint it to an exact date is all baloney in my opinion. The first good cold front in November gets them going, and that is all anyone really needs to know about the rut in my humble opinion. Deer screw around just like people do, which is when the opportunity presents itself and when they feel like it. For anyone to think they know the exact day and minute it will occur is voodoo science at best. But then again, isn't most of deer science? LOL

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phade Mentor

phade

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I just love reading all these theories. Exactly why are any theories even needed for this? We all know that the brunt of the rut happens in the first 3 weeks of November. That is all we really need to know. That anyone can pinpoint it to an exact date is all baloney in my opinion. The first good cold front in November gets them going, and that is all anyone really needs to know about the rut in my humble opinion. Deer screw around just like people do, which is when the opportunity presents itself and when they feel like it. For anyone to think they know the exact day and minute it will occur is voodoo science at best. But then again, isn't most of deer science? LOL

Not that many hunters have the ability to hunt the entire month of November. Most don't even have two weeks to do so. So, there is a need for the majority of hunters to be able to identify the best times for them to be in the woods on a much narrower scale. This is most often influenced by work/family commitments and hunting styles (wanting to hunt the rut rather than an early season patterned buck, etc.).

When you have 1,2,3, or X amount days of vacation time to schedule well in advance of that time...it's becomes critical. I don't think anyone wants to waste that time (figuratively) when they could have chosen a better time based on research available today. Sure, the potential is there for being wrong or taking time when a warm front comes in, but that's part of the bigger picture, and the research (in theory) helps to eliminate or reduce the window of opportunity for most to take off.

Now, the information is debatable, but it's meeting a demand assuming that hunters support a particular theory.

Basic business sense if you really think about it. It's just another tool to consider in the hunting process.

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steve863 Community Regular

steve863

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Not every hunter has three weeks to hunt in November. In fact, I bet most stiffs have to schedule their few vacation days well in advance of this time. Seems to me that info, if you believe it, meets a demand. Pretty basic business sense, really.

So how many hunters hunt these specific predicted rut dates, and yet don't see anything anyway?? Was a study ever done of that? One could hunt these specific dates and come home empty handed, and then hunt a day well away from these predicted ruts and see rutting activity all around you. It's all in the luck of the moment at the particular location one is in. The more one hunts, the better ones chances. No scientific theories really needed for any of this.

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phade Mentor

phade

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So how many hunters hunt these specific predicted rut dates, and yet don't see anything anyway?? Was a study ever done of that? One could hunt these specific dates and come home empty handed, and then hunt a day well away from these predicted ruts and see rutting activity all around you. It's all in the luck of the moment at the particular location one is in. The more one hunts, the better ones chances. No scientific theories really needed for any of this.

You are certainly right about seat time. When it's limited, there's a bigger need for anything that can help turn the odds in the favor of the hunter a little more. This is one of those examples, if you believe the theory.

It's always going to be hit or miss...weather being a big impact, even on the days projected to be good hunting days. It's a roll of the dice, but these theories, if you believe in them, cut down the days to really consider for the vast majority of hunters.

Edited by phade
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