What is Going On?????

[nyantler]

Sometimes we just don't seem to see deer because of bad luck..lol

[Lever action]

I agree with what Doc said.Opening day there was enough hunting pressure that kept the deer moving.I saw 5 deer opening day ,3 of them bucks.Since then hunting pressure has dropped off significantly but the deer are still nocturnal as my trail camera shows me.This morning at 6:30 am I had a deer trot right past my stand and go into a spruce thicket.Too dark to tell what it was but no doubt it was in a hurry to get to thck cover before daylight.

[New York Hillbilly]

Well after not taking time all year, I saved two weeks for deer season, and boy did I put it to use. With the exception of one day to attend to business I hunted 15 of the past 16 days and man do I feel it. At 52 it is not as easy as it was so many years ago to drag myself out of bed to go sit and play in the woods day after day. Sadly! But my love for deer hunting pushes me on. It gives me down time to just think, ponder and reflect and thank God that I was able to find myself hunting one more season. I take nothing for granted anymore as life has taught me some very important lessons about what really matters to me. Anyway, I was watching a couple does today cross my fields and had a thought. It was like a light clicking on in my head!

One of the reasons I saw so few deer for the hours I put in had to do with the warm weather effecting their movement during the day (past couple of days been seeing deer everyday......does), the other reason I just thought of was also weather related. I have had a light covering of snow on the ground here only two days out of my 15 in the field and I think it just makes seeing them near impossible. The does would move and as soon as they stopped would seem to disappear. My over grown fields of golden rod, multiflora rose and scrub apple hide deer as good as the darkness of night. My swamp and scrub apple orchards are brown, wet, muddy and all seem to blend together and again unless the deer are moving (and even when they are) you can't see them.

I don't know where you guys are hunting but in my world of everything is brown, shades of brown, gray or black, the reason I don't see deer this year is because they just blend in without the contrast of snow on the ground. Not even the crunch...crunch...crunch...to make my heart pound and make me turn head. Just a thought! Back to work tomorrow for me. By the time next Saturday gets here I will be itching to get back out in the woods. Maybe there will be a little snow by then.

Safe hunting,

NYH

[Brushbuster]

I'll can't speak in the same language of this math prof. but he seemed to feel it was an accurate method. Why do you feel its not ?

They establish a base line of known deer killed in the tens of thousands,monitor the reporting rate of those known deer killed, and extrapolate for the number of tags sold.

Heck a poll of 1,000 is proven to be accurite with in a plus or minus of 4 %

Well I can speak on stats and correlations and statistical significance - it is not rocket science.

How do you determine the deer population from tag reports that might be 5 or 10 or 20% of the actual.

Also, even if you did figure out the kill, how does that tell you the total population?

It doesnt and dont let them tell you otherwise. They report what is needed to keep their jobs secure.

How do you know the actual herd?

By statistical sampling i.e. asking hunters how many deer they are seeing in an area - and according to the sampling in this forum, the population is down.

PS, going what archers are seeing during the chase period prior to the rut is not an accurate sampling of the population since the bucks are ranging in a far larger area.

[bubba]

Did anyone ever think it was the biggest predator of all, MOTHER NATURE. I mean one says dont shoot does the next says dont shoot bucks. In the southern tier the past few winters, you have been hit with some pretty heavy snows. Mother natures way of keeping the population in check. (winter kill) About 15 years ago in the nz you would trip over deer to get to a stand. The next few years things have balanced out. Now you still hear there are no deer. No the reality is there is the right amont of deer for the area (carrying capacity). Hunters tend to get spoiled when there is an over population and hunting is easier, and expect to see deer like that all the time. Look at natural predators also. Yeah almost every doe has two fawns a year. Realisitcally only one survives due to predator influence. Stop knocking yourselves out. Hunters are such a small factor in animal population it is almost not worth mentioning. Do some homework find a nce deer and be happy you did instead of mad you arent seeing deer by the herd every day. Hunting isnt all about shooting something.

[Dad 6424]

The same in 4o and 4f no ones seeing a thing and getting only ok bucks the big boys arent moving and the ladys are not looking for them WORST season in almost 40 years of hunting

[vizslas]

too hot no snow and did i mention just to damn hot. these deer are going to the thickest cover they can find.I am.

hunting orleans county and if you are not kicking them up you are not going to find them. we hunted five miles of edges and creek flats pushed through at least eight normal bedding areas and not a thing.cant find them.they go to bed early and coming out well after dark.

[Doc]

They establish a base line of known deer killed in the tens of thousands,monitor the reporting rate of those known deer killed, and extrapolate for the number of tags sold.

Right there is the point where I get a bit confused. Exactly how is this "baseline" established? When did they actually go out and do a count to establish a firm "baseline". Of course we all know that they never did. So for me it isn't so much about what they do with their statistics afterward, but more about just how accurate this super-critical starting point (or baseline) is. Yes, if you have a firm starting point, you can apply statistical methods involving harvests, and maybe even throw in a few educated "guesstimates" about non-hunting mortality (although that by itself has to be straying a bit from reality), and eventually come up with a current population estimate and a few factors for accurately setting permit quotas, etc. However, if that baseline is flawed, any calculations or statistics that you apply to it will be as well. Further, the more consecutive years that you keep building on to this flawed baseline, the farther away from reality you get because of statistical creep.

I would go along with statistical models and such (since that is the only practical way of doing business) if only that "baseline" thing could be explained to me. The accuracy of that vital building block is essential to any hoped-for statistical manipulations accuracy. Otherwise, I really can't understand why any of it has any credibility. Also, I believe it is a recognized fact that there never is any periodic on-the-ground verification to ensure that statistical activities are not building on and extending prior errors (statistical creep).

So if someone can fill me in on how they keep this "baseline" accurate, I too will become one of the believers. Perhaps you might want to ask your math professor about that.....lol.

[Meat Manager]

Well I can speak on stats and correlations and statistical significance - it is not rocket science.

How do you determine the deer population from tag reports that might be 5 or 10 or 20% of the actual.

Also, even if you did figure out the kill, how does that tell you the total population?

It doesnt and dont let them tell you otherwise. They report what is needed to keep their jobs secure.

How do you know the actual herd?

By statistical sampling i.e. asking hunters how many deer they are seeing in an area - and according to the sampling in this forum, the population is down.

PS, going what archers are seeing during the chase period prior to the rut is not an accurate sampling of the population since the bucks are ranging in a far larger area.

Another insane response...anecdotal responses on a message board is not a scientifically conducted survey.

Oh but at the same time you are discounting archers reports (that makes a lot of sense since successful archers have to be much more aware of deer activity then typical gun only hunters, not too mention we have had an opportunity to see the deer before you guys push them into panic mode).

Finally, I joined this board early in november when my deer sightings dropped (and when the temps skyrocketed, hmmmm) to try to glean new info from other hunters, I am sure alot of other people use this site more when they are not seeing deer, thus a higher population sample of frustrated hunters....the inverse also seems true with most guys posting their harvest days or weeks after they occurred, indicating they visit the site less when there is success in sightings or harvest.

I'm done with this thread...I'll go back to just reporting live from the stand nearly every day.

Edited December 5, 2011 by 7J Everyday

[Nomad]

Ok its the number of deer killed I'm talking about, not the population as a whole. As for dead deer they have biologists in the meat cutters and check stations recording numbers of deer killed and recording the tags used, they then see which of these known dead deer are reported.

This tells them" X" % of deer are reported buy hunters as well as the totel number brought in,

As for the deer population ? who knows. I see plenty all bow and most of gun, my town is over run with them, when in the '60's and '70's you hardly saw any .

We got at least 100 guys on the job who hunt , it rare for anyone not to get something unless they are looking only for big racks. One firehouse I was in today had their count posted on a chaulk board. 1 guy had 1, the rest had between 2-4, I listed my 3, and after ML may add a few more.... If others want the meat .

Patterns change over the years, hunting changes guys don't drive much so a gun hunter who still sits on escape routes won't see 'em like they used to unless they change. If you do what you always did and the deer are not doing what they always did well...... When I hunted by my house it was unreal, deer and BIG bucks all over. then they built a school,Lowes and shopping center in 3 woods around mine. If i go hunt the same woods today I'd say "there are no deer anymore" , BUT if i go a few miles I'll say "Holy crap" its loaded with deer, because the deer moved.

QDM is big around me, we do it on the farm as well (2,000 plus acres) we kill some nice deer and see plenty, but if you sit waiting for them to run across the fields to your woods, like we did in years gone by, well you won't see much, because no one is pushing them .

[dave6x6]

Although i personally have not been out to see things for myself, the properties i hunt are giving up deer as usual to my family and friends. Larry and i have no complaints over here in 8h.. 9p is where our camp is and my family has been having a great yr. down there as well. Bigger bucks than normal and does in the freezer. Sorry for the rest of the state.

[Brushbuster]

All you guys painting blue sky about deer populations might be fooling some of the younger folks here but not me.

I started deer hunting in the 60's. Between sitting, still hunting, and driving we would see well over 50 deer a day and sometimes over 100.

Those days are gone and the only difference is that we never shot doe.

[bkln]

All you guys painting blue sky about deer populations might be fooling some of the younger folks here but not me.

I started deer hunting in the 60's. Between sitting, still hunting, and driving we would see well over 50 deer a day and sometimes over 100.

Those days are gone and the only difference is that we never shot doe.

Now, seriously, 50 deer a day? c'mon now.......

[dave6x6]

All you guys painting blue sky about deer populations might be fooling some of the younger folks here but not me.

I started deer hunting in the 60's. Between sitting, still hunting, and driving we would see well over 50 deer a day and sometimes over 100.

Those days are gone and the only difference is that we never shot doe.

Is that really the only difference? Are you still hunting those same tracts of land? And of course the deer #'s were high. No one shot does back then and thats how the holding capacities got so out of whack and the buck to doe ratios were so bad.

[dave6x6]

Now, seriously, 50 deer a day? c'mon now.......

I do feel sorry for guys like you that think this is a tall tale.. Not really all that crazy in some parts.

[bkln]

I do feel sorry for guys like you that think this is a tall tale.. Not really all that crazy in some parts.

What are these "some parts"? Here is 2011 reality for you from Dutchess county: I have not seen a deer in November, 22 hunting sessions, 4 different areas across 2 states....not for the lack of efforts....my main beef is the weather, when I was a kid (a while back) we had a snow on the ground in early November, now it is a common thing to have snow-less Christmas....that's all...

[dave6x6]

What are these "some parts"? Here is 2011 reality for you from Dutchess county: I have not seen a deer in November, 22 hunting sessions, 4 different areas across 2 states....not for the lack of efforts....my main beef is the weather, when I was a kid (a while back) we had a snow on the ground in early November, now it is a common thing to have snow-less Christmas....that's all...

Sorry, Not our problem here..

[nyantler]

LOL.. comparing the 60's and 70's deer populations with today... there was a ton more deer habitat back then to support way more deer... do you realize how many developments have eaten up acres and acres of once heavily populated deer woods that was huntable... deer have far more urban and suburban safe havens than were available 40-50 years ago... there is far more posted or unhuntable land today... things are different and there can be little or no comparison... today is today... hunting is different..habitat is different... and hunters are different... any short comings in hunting has to do with all of us hunters and how we have changed the face of hunting over the years...

[Doewhacker]

What are these "some parts"? Here is 2011 reality for you from Dutchess county: I have not seen a deer in November, 22 hunting sessions, 4 different areas across 2 states....not for the lack of efforts....my main beef is the weather, when I was a kid (a while back) we had a snow on the ground in early November, now it is a common thing to have snow-less Christmas....that's all...

Deer numbers fluctuate over time, we call it the herd moving but its not really that obviously. We have hunted a place in 3J that I can honestly tell you I saw @60 by noon. Coming from hunting places like you probaly do now and we still do it kinda freaked me out..lol Right now there are lots of deer in western/central NY, I want to "follow the herd" and find me a spot out there maybe.

[Brushbuster]

All you guys painting blue sky about deer populations might be fooling some of the younger folks here but not me.

I started deer hunting in the 60's. Between sitting, still hunting, and driving we would see well over 50 deer a day and sometimes over 100.

Those days are gone and the only difference is that we never shot doe.

That's right - 50 deer a day. And all that property is still there today and it is undeveloped and the livestock and crops are still there, the oak/beech/browse is still there but the does and buck aint.

And difference is doe hunting.

Now let me tell you something else. I recall drives where we pushed 40 to 50 deer! One was in Tioga County just north of rt 49 in Pa pushing a funnel between two pastures and the year was about 1972. Another drive was in NJ right off Rt 31 north of Spruce Run Reservoir and that was about 1976.

Back then there was as many "No Doe Hunting" posters as "No Trespassing". That goes to show you what we were seeing happening to the herd.

[wooly]

LOL.. comparing the 60's and 70's deer populations with today... there was a ton more deer habitat back then to support way more deer... do you realize how many developments have eaten up acres and acres of once heavily populated deer woods that was huntable... deer have far more urban and suburban safe havens than were available 40-50 years ago... there is far more posted or unhuntable land today... things are different and there can be little or no comparison... today is today... hunting is different..habitat is different... and hunters are different... any short comings in hunting has to do with all of us hunters and how we have changed the face of hunting over the years...

Right on Joe!

[Doc]

I remember a few years back when the harvest was a bit low and everybody and his brother had some kind of theory as to why the take was down. One guy said it was because the acorn crop in his area was too heavy, and deer were dispersed throughout the oak hillsides. Another guy said it was because in his area the acorn crop was too light and all the deer had moved out of traditional oak pockets. Others were claiming that the phase of the moon on opening day screwed that traditionally "most successfull" day up. Then there were the ones that blamed the coyotes, and the weather, and the temperatures, and the lack of snow, and the previous winter severity, and excessive issuance of permits, and excessive posting of property, and on and on and on. I'm probably forgetting a bunch of them also.....lol. Even the DEC gets involved in this guessing game. There never is any shortage of excuses and reasons. Maybe some of them are right, maybe none of them are right ..... who knows? But we keep on guessing.

[13BVET]

Actually, there are no shortage of deer in Dutchess County. The problem here, is out of control development. If there were anyone to fault for why hunting has been so altered here, it's developers, and "in the pocket" politicians. We have lost probably about 50-60% of the areas we used to hunt, due to development. The deer just lay behind these new houses, where the food source is prime in these types of areas. They have no reason at all to go in the woods. Try driving just about any road at night, and you'll see groups and groups of deer in these areas. You just can't get to them.

[nyantler]

That's right - 50 deer a day. And all that property is still there today and it is undeveloped and the livestock and crops are still there, the oak/beech/browse is still there but the does and buck aint.

And difference is doe hunting.

Now let me tell you something else. I recall drives where we pushed 40 to 50 deer! One was in Tioga County just north of rt 49 in Pa pushing a funnel between two pastures and the year was about 1972. Another drive was in NJ right off Rt 31 north of Spruce Run Reservoir and that was about 1976.

Back then there was as many "No Doe Hunting" posters as "No Trespassing". That goes to show you what we were seeing happening to the herd.

So your area was over populated with deer back because you didn't shoot does... love to see the deer/ car accident numbers then... also like to see how many more homes are in the area compared to 1972... you're comparing apples to oranges... nothing is the same as it was 40 years ago... 50 deer in one funnel between 2 pastures sounds like way to many deer for that habitat.. they all must have been 50 lbs from lack of food

[Dom]

Actually, there are no shortage of deer in Dutchess County. The problem here, is out of control development. If there were anyone to fault for why hunting has been so altered here, it's developers, and "in the pocket" politicians. We have lost probably about 50-60% of the areas we used to hunt, due to development. The deer just lay behind these new houses, where the food source is prime in these types of areas. They have no reason at all to go in the woods. Try driving just about any road at night, and you'll see groups and groups of deer in these areas. You just can't get to them.

Absolutely you are rite the development of land is our only problem in Dutchess County.The population of deer is pretty healthy lived and hunted hear allways and still have some sucsess.Not allways giants but still good hunting.