2014 Harvest Report

[Larry]

the 2014 harvest report is on the DEC. web site

I have not read it yet just down loaded it i'm attching the pdf

2014deerrpt.pdf

[Doc]

Thanks for the link. I've been waiting a long time for the release of this info.

[G-Man]

Well numbers have to be way off again, seems I've taken 10% of.my entire towns buck take again..... how the heck do they get these numbers?

[G-Man]

I know all the buck off.mine are.called.in part of the deal to hunt at my place.. and in see and hear them do it...

[stoneam2006]

600,000 doe tags only

100,000 filled? Seems off a bit I'd think

[wolc123]

Those numbers look very good considering all the acorns around last season, which made it easy for deer to go nocturnal.   I think NY state is doing a spectacular job managing the herd.   I feel very blessed to be around in a time of such abundance when it comes to deer hunting in NY.   The only thing better is the fishing where again, they are doing a very good job of managing our world-class fisheries, particularly the smallmouth bass (my personal favorite fish and second favorite food after whitetail deer).   One thing they could do a little better would be to let us use the crossbow during ALL of archery season.     

[phade]

B and C just released new data showing NY entries are down 75 percent in 2013 as compares to the prior 5 seasons. The drop is the biggest in the country tied with other states like IL and WI.

[132 eight pointer]

Can anyone explain how the hunters reporting percentage is calculated ?

[Four Season Whitetail's]

Those numbers look very good considering all the acorns around last season, which made it easy for deer to go nocturnal.   I think NY state is doing a spectacular job managing the herd.   I feel very blessed to be around in a time of such abundance when it comes to deer hunting in NY.   The only thing better is the fishing where again, they are doing a very good job of managing our world-class fisheries, particularly the smallmouth bass (my personal favorite fish and second favorite food after whitetail deer).   One thing they could do a little better would be to let us use the crossbow during ALL of archery season.     

Employee of the state?   And why would crossbow all during archery season be so much better?  It's its own implement so it should have its own season.

[Doc]

Can anyone explain how the hunters reporting percentage is calculated ?

The way it has been explained to me is that DEC personnel run all over the countryside checking deer processors, taxidermist, camps, and any other places where they might find collections of harvested deer, and then compare actual reports for these same deer to see how many actually did get officially reported. From that comparison, a reporting rate" is established. Applying that rate to all of the actual recorded reports received, gives them the final tally. So they are seeking a rate of "un-reporting". It is a statistical thing where they find actual occurrences of non-reporting and expand that as a percentage to the entire database. They claim to be very good at this sort of statistical approach, and also claim to have independent verification that their methods are valid statistical models.

[Doc]

Those numbers look very good considering all the acorns around last season, which made it easy for deer to go nocturnal.   I think NY state is doing a spectacular job managing the herd.  

Ha-ha-ha .... Well, spectacular may be putting it a bit strongly ... lol. But given the politics and the difficulties of dealing with a task that huge, and the fact that their resources are constantly being cut to the bone, I tend to give them a bit of slack, and will say that they are likely doing as good as anybody. I know the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, but I have tried to imagine myself in their job and have to admit that perhaps we often do expect the impossible and never seem to adequately appreciate the successes that they do have with an exceptionally tough job.

 

That's not to say that I don't think they could do a lot better, but I don't figure that the job is something I would call a "piece of cake" either.

[First-light]

The way it has been explained to me is that DEC personnel run all over the countryside checking deer processors, taxidermist, camps, and any other places where they might find collections of harvested deer, and then compare actual reports for these same deer to see how many actually did get officially reported. From that comparison, a reporting rate" is established. Applying that rate to all of the actual recorded reports received, gives them the final tally. So they are seeking a rate of "un-reporting". It is a statistical thing where they find actual occurrences of non-reporting and expand that as a percentage to the entire database. They claim to be very good at this sort of statistical approach, and also claim to have independent verification that their methods are valid statistical models.

I saw this first hand at my processor a few years ago. DEC was there logging in all the deer that were and would be processed. I asked the owner where they looking for violations and he said no they will check who reports their deer or not.

[Four Season Whitetail's]

Man there sure is a pile of Nubbin Bucks blasted every year in the fawn catagory. I guess thats because they are the brazen ones and always the first into the field at feding time.

[Buckstopshere]

Very comprehensive report. Sure a far cry from the old ones 30 years ago. One thing lacking was a cover letter or a written summary, kind of an overview. A statistic that jumped out at first glance was the dropoff of yearling bucks harvested compared to 2.5 and 3.5 aged bucks, showing a significant amount of voluntary AR, and pointing out once again the obvious conclusion, we do not need mandatory AR because as hunters an ever increasing percent are passing bucks out of choice and holding out for a bigger buck.

[Curmudgeon]

Larry -

 

Thanks for sending the file. Doc is right about the statistical calculations on reporting. I was told that the ECOs are starting to ticket the unreported deer at the processors.

 

The numbers look good for my town - 5.0 bucks per square mile, 9.2 total deer per square mile. 4F had 7 deer taken per square mile.

 

The hunters who want to increase the number of deer by not filling DMPs are wasting their time. DEC knows that some hunters apply for and receive DMPs with no intention of filling them. That is one reason for the high number of unfilled tags.

Edited April 22, 2015 by Curmudgeon

[Four Season Whitetail's]

Very comprehensive report. Sure a far cry from the old ones 30 years ago. One thing lacking was a cover letter or a written summary, kind of an overview. A statistic that jumped out at first glance was the dropoff of yearling bucks harvested compared to 2.5 and 3.5 aged bucks, showing a significant amount of voluntary AR, and pointing out once again the obvious conclusion, we do not need mandatory AR because as hunters an ever increasing percent are passing bucks out of choice and holding out for a bigger buck.

Shows you that more hunters want trophies....They will put AR in places they want does shot. Then you will see even less baby bucks killed in those areas but will see the doe problem taken care of.

It really is all about the bone for many...or most, as shown by the numbers.

[BizCT]

3N sucks as usual

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[phade]

Larry -

 

Thanks for sending the file. Doc is right about the statistical calculations on reporting. I was told that the ECOs are starting to ticket the unreported deer at the processors.

 

The numbers look good for my town - 5.0 bucks per square mile, 9.2 total deer per square mile. 4F had 7 deer taken per square mile.

 

The hunters who want to increase the number of deer by not filling DMPs are wasting their time. DEC knows that some hunters apply for and receive DMPs with no intention of filling them. That is one reason for the high number of unfilled tags.

 

The one component of this that remains a mystery to me is how they value the processor sampling. Logic would dictate the rate of non-reporting would be lower for deer taken to a processor than deer not taken to a processor. I know their methodology is used in the majority of eastern states, but that component always eludes me.

[G-Man]

14 deer shot , 2 taken to processors, rest done by hunter at home...has to effect their guessestimate

[Curmudgeon]

The one component of this that remains a mystery to me is how they value the processor sampling. Logic would dictate the rate of non-reporting would be lower for deer taken to a processor than deer not taken to a processor. I know their methodology is used in the majority of eastern states, but that component always eludes me.

 

I agree. The hunters know that the deer at the processors could be checked - that it is out of their control. Many deer - including those taken here - never travel on a road except in little white wrapped packages.

 

[Doc]

The one component of this that remains a mystery to me is how they value the processor sampling. Logic would dictate the rate of non-reporting would be lower for deer taken to a processor than deer not taken to a processor. I know their methodology is used in the majority of eastern states, but that component always eludes me.

I have never heard whether there are additional analysis beyond simple comparisons of harvested deer with recorded reports. I'm not sure if they try to factor anything in for where the harvested deer are documented. But I agree, people are more likely to observe the letter of the law if they understand that a DEC employee will taking names. That would bias the reporting rate to appear to be even higher that it I in reality.

[wildcat junkie]

Man there sure is a pile of Nubbin Bucks blasted every year in the fawn catagory. I guess thats because they are the brazen ones and always the first into the field at feding time.

Button bucks in the fall are about the dumbest thing there is on 4 legs.

[Hock3y24]

Button bucks in the fall are about the dumbest thing there is on 4 legs.

They still are dumb as hell a year later!

[nyslowhand]

The DEC uses as a "fudge factor" to determine the released annual harvest report. It varies periodically, but generally runs in the 45-60% range, decal reports vs assumed harvests. Believe it was ~45% estimated for the 2014 report. So..The DEC uses actual decal numbers of hunters harvesting deer and applies the fudge factor multiplier for their released reports. Supposedly this is a sound statistical methodology..!?!

 

Explanation from their website:

http://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/47738.html

 

Anyways..some interesting data within the new report. Basically, same news, different year! Theory I don't understand is just how the DEC coorelates pts/side into an age bracket. A big generalization or "rule of thumb" assumption, at least for the habitat I hunt..!

 

Slightly off topic....Anyone remember the circumstances during the 2000-2003 reporting years. Huge spike in harvest report. Mild winters, decent rainfall, good agr crop years, late winters, 2k scare, baby (fawn) boom, too high a fudge factor applied,...?

Edited April 23, 2015 by nyslowhand

[Doc]

From the above link http://www.dec.ny.go...door/47738.html :

 

"Our system for calculating deer harvests was audited by a private group of professional statisticians in 1990 and was found to be very solid and produce highly reliable harvest estimates. In 2006, approximately 45% of successful deer hunters in New York reported their harvest. While the reporting rate is lower than we would prefer, the combination of harvest reports and more than 15,000 deer checked by DEC staff in the field, yielded a 2006 harvest estimate that was statistically accurate to within ±1.9%. Ten years ago, when reporting rates averaged 60-65%, harvest estimates were accurate to within 1-2%. Our accuracy has not changed, because the methodology and statistics involved are sound."

 

Does that sound like someone saying, "trust me"? .... lol. Exactly how does a "private group of professional statisticians" determine that harvest estimations are accurate within 1-2%. I have no doubt about the accuracy of election statistical predictions, because eventually they do verify those predictions with actual vote counts. But here is a system that has no verification ..... ever. We do not do deer counts or even attempts at deer counts, so there never is any verification .... even periodically. I am not saying that their methods are bogus because that would be just as dumb as saying they are accurate to within 1-2%. I haven't done a deer count either to see how the harvest altered the numbers .... LOL. But it really isn't all that unreasonable to have a few doubts and maybe be a little less confident than the almost bragging style of comments above.