2010 Deer take

[erussell]

Was going through the deer take numbers and noticed on page 7 that it had alot of WMA's with 10% higher than expected buck takes. What's up with that?

http://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/42232.html

[eagle rider]

I just hit the link,..... you are correct.  I wonder why the increase esp in mature bucks?????

[arrowflinger]

They are above the BTO (Buck Take Objective.)  The DEC interprets that as meaning the deer population is too high in those areas, and they will increase DMP until they bring it down.

On the other hand, we are below the BTO in southern Region 8.  Expect the DEC to decrease the DMP again next year as they try to increase the herd size.

[gjs4]

I came on here just to post this giant POS document.

Okay guys- how many of you reportred or can age a deer from the mandatory reporting system? And this is the states number one means of aging a deer? WTF???????? I call BS!!!

Next- if they assume 45% are reported- how did they arrive at that number? Second and more importantly, how can someone justify anything even resembling accuracy with inflation by guessing for 2/3rds of the total? Yes, they make up 65% of the statistic!!!!!!

45% of the bucks harvest were 2.5 or better.....my arse. Again- not many aged by biologists which is all the more reason that stat could be utilized for fertilizer. Been to the taxidermists, the meat markets and unless there was some honey hole- the majority (read as almost every one, not one in two as the DEC describes) were 1.5yo or fawns.

Love and hate whatever hunting issues you'd like....but......it is all worthless.....we need to band together to have the state do their job. They do not know populations (just call your region and ask how many deer are in your WMU or county....lol...you may get some babble on track surveys..) and then just threw out a turd on paper (which dictates so much) hoping people were too stupid to question it yet again.

Just a shame....we need change, or at least to get what we pay for.

[nyantler]

I have to agree that I visit quite a few butchers and taxidermists during the season and most of the deer are young.. especially the bucks.. but to be fair .. that is just in my area... might not be the same in some of your areas

[wztirem]

I came on here just to post this giant POS document.

Okay guys- how many of you reportred or can age a deer from the mandatory reporting system? And this is the states number one means of aging a deer? WTF? ??? ??? ? I call BS!!!

Next- if they assume 45% are reported- how did they arrive at that number? Second and more importantly, how can someone justify anything even resembling accuracy with inflation by guessing for 2/3rds of the total? Yes, they make up 65% of the statistic!!!!!!

45% of the bucks harvest were 2.5 or better.....my arse. Again- not many aged by biologists which is all the more reason that stat could be utilized for fertilizer. Been to the taxidermists, the meat markets and unless there was some honey hole- the majority (read as almost every one, not one in two as the DEC describes) were 1.5yo or fawns.

Love and hate whatever hunting issues you'd like....but......it is all worthless.....we need to band together to have the state do their job. They do not know populations (just call your region and ask how many deer are in your WMU or county....lol...you may get some babble on track surveys..) and then just threw out a turd on paper (which dictates so much) hoping people were too stupid to question it yet again.

Just a shame....we need change, or at least to get what we pay for.

Your argument would be better served if it was directed at the those hunters (nearly) 55% who do not report their kills. As it stands their model for estimating the total deer kill is based upon sound statistics and science.

[gjs4]

Your argument would be better served if it was directed at the those hunters (nearly) 55% who do not report their kills. As it stands their model for estimating the total deer kill is based upon sound statistics and science.

I report my kills..and those i know do the same...for the ismple reason you cannot complain if you dont partake in the process. Explain to me how they know it if 55%..and not 15 or 80.

Statistics are based on tangible numbers- not guesses that constitute the vast majority of something

Science...wheres that in this mix? Find another department of resources in the US with a whitetail season that doesnt know how many deer it even has.

Not starting a fight but not giving into more hot air on top of the breeze the state just issued with that report

[burmjohn]

I report my kills as well, and make sure everyone that hunts with me does the same.  These stats are not based on tangible numbers, they are estimates because people fail to report either by forgetting or breaking the law.  Maybe we should call these estimatistics or something, but its better then nothing.

As a side note, I went to the butcher near my property 3 times, the majority of the bucks he saw come into the shop were larger then the previous years both in antler size and body size.  He also said the DEC was there quite often, and asked him to keep some stats for them as well.  The DEC is undermanned for any type of mass enforcement, it is what it is, and its never going to change. 

[erussell]

saw alot more bucks this yr to. Last yr was so warm I saw only one a small spike. This yr we started out bow cold so my buck sightings were way up. I think alot of the bucks last yr were just laying around because it was so warm and unless you walked over one you didn't see anything. I think this is the cause as to why there were more bucks this yr than the previous yr in my area atleast.

[G-Man]

There was an increase in the number of older bucks taken in my neighborhood, part by hunters wanting bigger bucks, part was by the rut(second rut) falling during thanksgiving week, i believe. Although i know the guys that hunt my camp report their deer my towns total take was only 286 deer which means my camp took more than 7% of the total? I'm sorry but if i include deer i know 2 neighbors took it raises it to 10% this would be on about 1/2 square mile!! Their numbers have to be way off as my town is approximatly 25 square mile or more in size. assuming just a 1/4 that take per square mile would be 375 deer for the town! just adding up the deer on my street from the camps i know is 43 deer or 15 % of their reported take for the town, this on a approximatly 700 acres or a little over a square mile... this is just from the camps i know had sucess. as for their buck take per square mile the deer i know taken would be approximatly 14 buck per square mile. way above their 3.1 -4 they say my area had, and not >10% below objective,and above their 6.1-9 total take per square mile, closer to 14-18 per square mile or almost 50% error on their part.

[Doc]

I understand that all of the published stats that the DEC issues all have a pile of formulas behind them and for every question we might have, they could drag out volumes of statistical analysis that we are supposed to merely accept as gospel. However, when you look at the fact that every input involves some estimate, factor, trend analysis, and other such soft data, it is very hard to work up any kind of credible confidence in what comes spewing out the end of the computers. That coupled with the fact that there is never any physical verification of results, and yet those results are built on and added to every subsequent year, kind of makes you think that there has to be a huge opportunity for statistical "creep". And then we look at the randomness of results such as the deer glut of the 90's followed by the admitted over-harvest a few years later, and it becomes obvious that the real management methods are not the statistical models, but merely the wild manipulation of antlerless permits to frantically compensate for what eventually becomes obvious to everybody. It would appear that all this statistical mask is merely a cover story to a much more basic reactive management scheme.

If I am wrong about this assessment, it is only because the DEC does a real crappy job of instilling confidence in their super-secret, hokus-pokus, black art, unverified, statistical methods, and do not adequately explain to the public all the apparent mis-steps and tangible evidence that all is not well in the deer management methods.

[arrowflinger]

I agree that the estimate is definitly not accurate....but it is probably relative year to year. 

The DEC lost huge credibility in their ability to manage the herd back in the 2003 to 2005 timeframe, when they stated that hunters were overreacting when they said there was a significant reduction in the herd.

First they said the smaller harvest was due to poor weather on opening weekend.  Then they said that seasonal anomolies can happen....it was a fluke, essentially.

But it became clear that significant winter kill over 2 seasons, plus the highest DMP allocations in history, had combined to collapse the deer hunting across most of the SZ.  2/3 of the state was below target for BTU.....2/3 of the state.  That is piss poor reaction...and piss poor management.

[SplitG2]

Unforseen harsh winters throws a monkey wrench into their analysis.  However, since we are dealing with a wild herd, estimatating will always be part of the process.  The process isn't perfect but I do think it get's them close. 

[wztirem]

Deer Harvest Reporting and Harvest Calculation  The subject of mandatory harvest reporting routinely surfaces in numerous letters and emails to the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), in letters to the NY Outdoor News, other newspapers and even in a resolution from a county sportsman's federation. These letters often imply that the current harvest reporting system is voluntary. In fact, game harvest reporting in New York is mandatory, and State regulations are very specific that a hunter who has taken a deer, bear, or turkey must report the harvest within 7 days of taking the animal. Though this article focuses on the importance of reporting a deer harvest, accurate estimation of bear and turkey harvests also relies on hunter reports.

Some people have suggested that we should change our system to require reports from all hunters, successful or not, and that non-reporters should be denied a license the next year. These ideas and others have been discussed within DEC in the past, however all harvest reporting scenarios have both positive and negative aspects. Across the nation, a variety of methods are used to estimate annual deer harvests including use of mandatory check stations and deer check at meat lockers, mail questionnaires, report cards, telephone surveys, and telephone and internet reporting. No one method is perfect, and all state agencies must deal with incomplete reporting.

Ultimately, the adage, "if it's not broken, don't fix it," comes into play. Suggestions to change DEC's harvest reporting system, while well intentioned, typically stem from a misunderstanding of how the system works and a belief that our current system is not sufficient for accurate harvest estimates or proper deer management. This simply is not the case.

Our system for calculating deer harvests was audited by a private group of professional statisticians in 1990 and was found to be very solid and produce highly reliable harvest estimates. In 2006, approximately 45% of successful deer hunters in New York reported their harvest. While the reporting rate is lower than we would prefer, the combination of harvest reports and more than 15,000 deer checked by DEC staff in the field, yielded a 2006 harvest estimate that was statistically accurate to within ±1.9%. Ten years ago, when reporting rates averaged 60-65%, harvest estimates were accurate to within 1-2%. Our accuracy has not changed, because the methodology and statistics involved are sound.

That said, we would still like to see reporting rates climb. In 2002, when we dropped the paper based reporting system and initiated the automated licensing system (DECALS), our deer harvest reporting rates dropped from 60% to 46%. That first year was a real trial and error year with glitches in the system that dropped calls and turned a lot of hunters away. Since then, we have made significant improvements, and the telephone reporting process today is much smoother. We expect to soon begin using voice recognition software on the telephone reporting system and also to begin accepting harvest reports via the internet. We hope that these improvements will continue to make harvest reporting easier for hunters. Harvest reporting is essential for proper deer management, and when hunters report their harvest, they perform a crucial step in the management process. Hunters are the sole source of two critical pieces of harvest information - when and where deer are taken. These data are used, together with reporting rates, to estimate the number of deer harvested in each town, county, and Wildlife Management Unit throughout the State. Biological information that is essential for management, such as sex, age, and antler data, is generated through the thousands of deer examined by DEC staff each fall.

The process of moving from harvest reports to harvest estimates is fundamentally quite simple. At its essence, harvest calculation involves the number of deer reported, the number of deer checked by DEC staff, and the number of deer that were both reported and checked. With these numbers we can determine a reporting rate and then calculate the number of deer actually harvested.

Our concern with current reporting rates is not the resulting quality of our harvest estimates. Rather, we are concerned that low reporting rates may reflect a declining awareness among hunters about the important role they have in the game management process. Hunters in New York and across the nation face a growing battle to preserve the heritage and traditions they enjoy. Demonstrating to the general public that the hunting community takes seriously their role as cooperators in the game management process is an important element in maintaining their credibility and preserving their hunting traditions. Participation through game harvest reporting is integral in this process.

[gjs4]

My big point is- how do they know 55% are unreported, 45% of bucks were 2.5 yo or older - biologists/eco did not age or check most of the deer taken- so where exactly do these stats come from?

[nyantler]

Yeah I'm guessing that the 45% (2.5 Yr olds) isn't accurate

[Doc]

Now if you don't have faith in that one particular statistic, doesn't that make you kind of look funny at the rest of the management system statistics, procedures and data?

I have to wonder just where they are getting all this age info anyway. Nobody ever asked me on my report how old my deer was. Heck, they come up with all kinds of data that is not part of the reporting system. If they have figured out a way of arriving at all this stuff without hunters reporting it, why the heck are harvest reports mandatory. Just run around a couple of processors, check a few dozen deer at each and then expand those findings to the rest of the state. Forget the hunter reports and just pretend that the trumped up stats are all correct.....lol. Actually that ain't so funny. That's kind of a version of what they are doing right now.

[nyantler]

I'm not really good with the rest of the process either... kinda like being the stat taker for a basketball game but only watching half the game... the end stats wouldn't be very accurate..lol

[Santamour123]

These are also the same statistitions that estimated the NYS deer heard wrong in the late 90's.  They admittedly counted every deer with out legal points as "antlerless"  yes tag wise this is correct. But when it came to the estimateing 1/3 in theory are bucks to be.

[WNYBuckHunter]

Doc, that is pretty much what they do now, youre right. Think about how many guys report their deer, but process themselves. How do they know the age of those deer? Maybe along with the mandatory reporting of all tags (kill or no kill), they should add on that all reported kills require you to turn in the jaw bone with the tag. Then they could age them all. Biggest problem with that would be overhead though.

[nyantler]

huge overhead.. the only truly accurate way to age a whitetail is bisection of a tooth.. the cost to do 200,000 deer each year would be astronomical.. even if they just did the bucks it would be a huge expense.

[WNYBuckHunter]

You wouldnt have to get that technical about it, tooth wear gives you a general idea. That would be better than what they have now, no idea. 

[wztirem]

"The process of moving from harvest reports to harvest estimates is fundamentally quite simple. At its essence, harvest calculation involves the number of deer reported, the number of deer checked by DEC staff, and the number of deer that were both reported and checked. With these numbers we can determine a reporting rate and then calculate the number of deer actually harvested.

Our concern with current reporting rates is not the resulting quality of our harvest estimates. Rather, we are concerned that low reporting rates may reflect a declining awareness among hunters about the important role they have in the game management process. Hunters in New York and across the nation face a growing battle to preserve the heritage and traditions they enjoy. Demonstrating to the general public that the hunting community takes seriously their role as cooperators in the game management process is an important element in maintaining their credibility and preserving their hunting traditions. Participation through game harvest reporting is integral in this process."

The emboldened paragraph describes the root cause of our argument!

[First-light]

It amazes me how they come up with their numbers. As a hunter from L.I. you always prepared to stop on Rt.17 for a deer check, then once again at the major bridges. At the deer check stats were taken. Think about all the deer that get transported to L.I. and butchered there. The butcher would have to log all the different areas and information about the deer

for the DEC. I just don't see that happening. I could be wrong but in this economy who has the time to do this or the man power.

[bubba]

The age of the deer is roughly and very roughly at that determined by antoer points which you do have to report on your tag.  It is a sad system for sure.