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Investment year in review.

Nomad

By Nomad,
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First-light Grand Master

First-light

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3 hours ago, BizCT said:


And solar panels too. Almost all my friends in California have Tesla solar panels on their houses


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I had shares in their solar division before they bought them back. The conversion wasn't great but still if I had held...........

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Steuben Jerry
Steuben Jerry

Not that I'm counting or anything...

crappyice
crappyice

I used to be a great teacher - thoughtful assignments, high standards, earning an A was quite challenging, earning an F was quite possible, forcing students to redo sloppy work and come in before scho

phade
phade

Yep, 100%. Some people love their job/career as a definition of their identity. It is a choice after all. I am appreciative of my career and an honest self-assessment is that I out-punted my cove

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First-light Grand Master

First-light

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5 hours ago, phade said:

It's the other way around - Tesla is eating into legacy share. Tesla dominates the EV market, which is cannibalizing ICE market. The market isn't EV vs ICE. It's cars, period.

Tesla isn't at risk of losing it's market share. Legacy automakers are.

For simplicity sake:

EV Market Share today is 10 units
ICE Market Share today is 90 units

Tesla has 9 out of 10 units in EV (90%)

Future State where Tesla loses "market share":

EV Market Share is 40 units
ICE Market Share is 60 units

Tesla has 28 out of 40 units in EV (70%)

With technology and patents holding the future of EV, Tesla is well positioned to eat a bigger piece of the pie. They also just announced more records broken today in terms of production and delivery.

 

The EV market is going to be saturated in the next 5 years. Tesla will not be able to get away with what they do now. With the saturation will be a declining stock price. It's inevitable. GM is all in on EV. 

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phade Mentor

phade

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15 hours ago, First-light said:

The EV market is going to be saturated in the next 5 years. Tesla will not be able to get away with what they do now. With the saturation will be a declining stock price. It's inevitable. GM is all in on EV. 

Saturation of EV has little to do with future growth value of Tesla - Tesla's biggest challenge is going to be production and maintaining quality and brand strength, which will determine how big they get. Tesla is Tesla's biggest challenge. Remember, as the market moves to EV from ICE, the companies at most risk are legacy automakers. They have to protect their volume and market share. Tesla has nothing but upside with the ability to EAT up the legacy market share - which is why the value is so heavily shown in market cap, being 10 times GM. It doesn't maintain that for no reason.

Plus Tesla is smart enough to know that the key to auto success is the battery and power storage. They're going to continue diversification across those markets. Similar to how the gold rush made millionaires out of the shovel and jeans sellers...not the miners.

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Nomad Grand Master

Nomad

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On 4/12/2022 at 9:13 AM, BizCT said:

March inflation 8.5%

iBonds are now 9.62% as of May. Too bad it's a $10K max.

Thanks , Mrs and I doubled down . Also NYS income tax free .

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phade Mentor

phade

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On 4/26/2022 at 5:05 PM, BizCT said:

What a bloodbath the market is. Feel bad for those in their 50's if they haven't planned right.

Yeah, there is some logic ahead that this might be a recession with a long period of recapture. Doomsday people referring to the 1920s and how long it took for the market to return to those levels - 25 years or so. Hopefully that is not the case, but I can see a 2-5 year bumpy road IMO.

To me the biggest issue is also the most simple - supply and demand. The world population is growing and demand is outstripping supply in what seems like anything that matters. Housing, cars, wood, rare elements, healthcare, logistics, fuel/power, food, etc.

I'm not very optimistic that we'll get back to the days of excess and easy sourcing any time soon. Scale is becoming a more complex challenge to supply.

I am definitely becoming more interested in other revenue streams beyond market investing. I'm hesitant to get into rentals, but it sure seems like the writing is on the wall for demand for the long-term.

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Nomad Grand Master

Nomad

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16 minutes ago, phade said:

am definitely becoming more interested in other revenue streams beyond market investing. I'm hesitant to get into rentals, but it sure seems like the writing is on the wall for demand for the long-term.

Very happy we kept our farm land ,the rent has gone up a little , but it just adds another layer of diversity and a hard asset . Oh we can’t do much with the rent money , but it’s still appreciating .

My deferred comp is 100% in the general fund, and has been for years, I slowly moved the ratio of stocks / general fund to all general as I moved closer to retirement,even though I have no plans to withdraw any soon . 

We still hold  equites , that are still “ long term “ , not sure if we are though .

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BizCT Grand Master

BizCT

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And the S & P 500 is still down 500 from the first of the year !  Glad I don't need my 401K anytime soon !

Rollercoaster 2022 for sure. Just keep
Buying twice a month!


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phade Mentor

phade

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Definitely a tough time for people closer to retirement or in retirement. I have been taking a hit like most but hoping the down cycle works through eventually and down cost average helps. 

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Nomad Grand Master

Nomad

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35 minutes ago, phade said:

Definitely a tough time for people closer to retirement or in retirement. I have been taking a hit like most but hoping the down cycle works through eventually and down cost average helps. 


I’m  in retirement,but nothing is in stocks that would be needed  in the foreseeable future. Does it suck to look sure, which is why I haven’t .

My deferred comp was a mix of stocks and the general ( fixed rate ) fund , years before retirement, I shifted it a year at a time till it was 100% fixed .

Im not much on annuities, but a few years ago I put a chunk into one , didn’t want to put it into stocks , and at the time the rate was pretty good . 
 

In down times I look at those accts. And smile . 
 

Also we got into buying “ stuff “ our RV, a high efficiency furnace , Honda generator , had house sided ,new doors , garage doors , bullets , beans and bullion ,took profits and bought hard assets . We’ve been through a number of these downturns and high inflation, my first home the mortgage rate was like 14-16 % . I’m old enough to remember W.I.N. buttons! 

I learned from a friend he’d take profits , add a four season room, next time a big shed and so on . Those big numbers on paper are just that sometimes you need to turn them into physical things ( for us older folks )

Take from this market and learn . Now our kids , they’re  still mostly aggressive long term , and I’m sure I’ll have to calm them down this Sunday . You only loose when you sell at the down turn , of course this time the recovery may be a long long time coming . 

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GreeneHunter Grand Master

GreeneHunter

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I " Retired " from one place back in 2009 and was provided the option of Lump Sum or Pension ... I took the Pension and never looked back ! A few of my co-workers took the Lump ( and were not 59 1/2 ) and have been sorry ever since . It's all a gamble .

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phade Mentor

phade

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Could be a while - looks like most large financial groups put the risk of recession at 35% or thereabouts. Seems low to me, but who knows.

My guess is that we straddle these next 12 months with losses and some recoveries, but exit 12 mos from now about where we are. Or it goes into the crapper with a recession if inflation doesn't get tamed more. Supply and Demand is out of whack on alot of economic staples - and the ones that are not have cost increases.

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