Non political corona virus thread

[Rattler]

From the CDC's own website under COVIDView: A weekly Surveillance Summary:

Mortality

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC. 

 

The CDC's website notes that COVID deaths have continued to decrease as a percentage of total U.S. deaths and may even slip below the CDC's threshold for definition as an epidemic. 

The surge is happening mainly among younger people who are less likely to die from the virus.  They are going to bars, gyms, restaurants, protests etc.  People in older age groups are still protecting themselves.

This is the way the entire virus issue should've been handled from the beginning.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Rattler

[virgil]

It's not the number of positive cases that matters, it's the percentage of positive tests.  And, it's not the gross number of deaths that is significant, it's the number of deaths per capita.

[Rattler]

Right.  And those numbers show COVID-19 is nowhere near as bad as we have been told.

CDC Confirms Extremely Low COVID-19 Death Rate

https://www.technocracy.news/cdc-confirms-extremely-low-covid-19-death-rate/?fbclid=IwAR3U6ok6wDpiyifHy4zmPH3RO15QjDlWrkXBQi8rF8euP4J9CkXYzIH-9Bw

[virgil]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

From the CDC website.

Key Updates for Week 26, ending June 27, 2020

Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) activity remain lower than peaks seen in March and April but are increasing in most regions. The percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, also increased from last week.  Mortality attributed to COVID-19 decreased compared to last week and is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely increase as additional death certificates are processed.

Edited July 10, 2020 by virgil

[Rattler]

Like it says, mortality decreased.  It may "likely increase" but the numbers will still be far below any projected levels and still falling from the peak periods, and let's not forget how ANY COVID-19 positive person that dies is counted as a COVID-19 death, even if they die from something else.

[virgil]

5 minutes ago, Rattler said:

Like it says, mortality decreased.  It may "likely increase" but the numbers will still be far below any projected levels and still falling from the peak periods, and let's not forget how ANY COVID-19 positive person that dies is counted as a COVID-19 death, even if they die from something else.

You are again choosing to interpret data according to your bias.  The statement says deaths 'will likely increase'- doesn't say 'may increase'.  And, yes, the numbers are below the peak of April- but, so what?  They are still rising.  They are rising because some states chose to disregard guidance from experts.  Percent positives are increasing- that is a bad sign, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not.  Allowing politics to cloud our thinking on a scientific issue will only lead to disaster- look at Florida and Texas if you need examples.

[The_Real_TCIII]

16 minutes ago, virgil said:

They are rising because some states chose to disregard guidance from experts.  Percent positives are increasing- that is a bad sign, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not.  Allowing politics to cloud our thinking on a scientific issue will only lead to disaster- look at Florida and Texas if you need examples.

I dont agree with the word "disregard". I think theyre weighing the consequences of covid vs the consequences of staying locked down and choosing the former

[virgil]

1 minute ago, The_Real_TCIII said:

I dont agree with the word "disregard". I think theyre weighing the consequences of covid vs the consequences of staying locked down and choosing the former

The governor of Texas in April or May passed legislation forbidding local governments from mandating the use of masks- a purely political move.  That was a blatant disregard of the guidance from the experts.  And, it was a purely politically driven move.

[Culvercreek hunt club]

54 minutes ago, virgil said:

It's not the number of positive cases that matters, it's the percentage of positive tests.  And, it's not the gross number of deaths that is significant, it's the number of deaths per capita.

ok Let's really look at some numbers. This is straight off the CDC website.

They are a little confusing becasue they don't use the total reported cases to calculate percentages. They use a number where people actually reported underlying health conditions. SO those appear to be inflated. 

 

Looking at these numbers is it really prudent to shut down a county for what is really a disease with a risk to the older population? My mother and good friends are in those groups. Should they be sheltering? Should we be making arrangements to make sure they are cared for until there is a vaccine? 

 

[virgil]

3 minutes ago, Culvercreek hunt club said:

ok Let's really look at some numbers. This is straight off the CDC website.

They are a little confusing becasue they don't use the total reported cases to calculate percentages. They use a number where people actually reported underlying health conditions. SO those appear to be inflated. 

 

Looking at these numbers is it really prudent to shut down a county for what is really a disease with a risk to the older population? My mother and good friends are in those groups. Should they be sheltering? Should we be making arrangements to make sure they are cared for until there is a vaccine? 

 

I agree that shutdowns are not necessarily the answer everywhere.  Shutdowns were the answer at the beginning of the outbreak because we knew so little about the bug and how to manage it.  Certain populations need to take greater precautions.  It seems that basic social distancing, masks, and common sense have a major impact. 

[Culvercreek hunt club]

2 minutes ago, virgil said:

I agree that shutdowns are not necessarily the answer everywhere.  Shutdowns were the answer at the beginning of the outbreak because we knew so little about the bug and how to manage it.  Certain populations need to take greater precautions.  It seems that basic social distancing, masks, and common sense have a major impact. 

now that they know who is impacted, I can't find a reason to go to round #2 in shutdowns. 

[virgil]

16 minutes ago, Culvercreek hunt club said:

now that they know who is impacted, I can't find a reason to go to round #2 in shutdowns. 

Shutdowns are probably necessary in areas that are at outbreak levels- and could probably have been avoided if the basic guidance had been followed before allowing it to get to that level.

[Eric J]

Well.... I'm glad DeBlasio stopped all large gatherings in NYC till September.... Oh... Except BLM protests!!!!  

[Rattler]

13 hours ago, virgil said:

You are again choosing to interpret data according to your bias.  The statement says deaths 'will likely increase'- doesn't say 'may increase'.  And, yes, the numbers are below the peak of April- but, so what?  They are still rising.  They are rising because some states chose to disregard guidance from experts.  Percent positives are increasing- that is a bad sign, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not.  Allowing politics to cloud our thinking on a scientific issue will only lead to disaster- look at Florida and Texas if you need examples.

In case you are not aware of it, you are as politically biased as anyone regarding this issue, which is quite evident from the talking points you use, which come directly from the leftist bias of the main stream media. 

I think calling Florida and Texas "disasters" is hyperbole and fear mongering.  Considering the populations of those 2 states, the numbers are minuscule relative to the overall population.  The deaths have not been going up.  Are they "likely" to? In the minds of people who are using this virus purely for political purposes, they will.  But looking at the data and what age groups are pushing up the positives, as well as how many tests are being done, then comparing that to what was going on in April, the data indicates we are in far better shape and making progress. 

The country has suffered enough damage economically and politically already.  Time for people to resist the so called "science" and start looking at probabilities and get back to living, rather than worrying about dying from something less threatening than being hit by lightning.

Edited July 11, 2020 by Rattler

[Rattler]

Despite the recent coronavirus surge in southern states, three states—New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts—account for about 42 percent of COVID-19 deaths in America. Why?

There is currently a great deal of scrutiny on states such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona, which have seen case numbers increase in recent weeks, a spike that began in mid-June after states reopened their economies. The implication is that these states dropped the ball by reopening too soon.

None of these states, however, has a per capita fatality rate that even approaches New Jersey, Massachusetts, or New York. Below are the figures as of July 7.

Deaths per million:

New Jersey: 1,728.7

New York: 1,660

Massachusetts: 1,189

Arizona: 265

Florida: 179

Texas: 94

Considering these numbers, one would not expect to see a governor from New Jersey, New York, or Massachusetts lecture these other states on their handling of the coronavirus. But that’s exactly what Gov. Cuomo did, claiming his state-ordered lockdown “saved lives” and chastening governors who opened their economies.

 

https://fee.org/articles/3-states-account-for-42-percent-of-all-covid-19-deaths-in-america-why/

[wolc123]

4 hours ago, Rattler said:

Despite the recent coronavirus surge in southern states, three states—New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts—account for about 42 percent of COVID-19 deaths in America. Why?

There is currently a great deal of scrutiny on states such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona, which have seen case numbers increase in recent weeks, a spike that began in mid-June after states reopened their economies. The implication is that these states dropped the ball by reopening too soon.

None of these states, however, has a per capita fatality rate that even approaches New Jersey, Massachusetts, or New York. Below are the figures as of July 7.

Deaths per million:

New Jersey: 1,728.7

New York: 1,660

Massachusetts: 1,189

Arizona: 265

Florida: 179

Texas: 94

Considering these numbers, one would not expect to see a governor from New Jersey, New York, or Massachusetts lecture these other states on their handling of the coronavirus. But that’s exactly what Gov. Cuomo did, claiming his state-ordered lockdown “saved lives” and chastening governors who opened their economies.

 

https://fee.org/articles/3-states-account-for-42-percent-of-all-covid-19-deaths-in-america-why/

Population density is much higher in downstate NY.   Expect to see a mass migration from that area and a free fall of property value as a direct result of the pandemic.

 

Southern areas like FL, AZ and TX are seeing a surge now because folks are staying inside where it is air conditioned.

Trying to blame it on the Democrats or Republicans is just bs partisan politics.  Simple biology explains it much better.

 

 

[Elmo]

The argument that more cases are as a result of more testing. Oddly, the states with the most recent surge are some of the least tested.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-testing.html


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[Elmo]

NY was one of the first hit. Early on when people did not know as much as they do now. Mishandling it now is less excusable then it was back then.


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[knehrke]

The only metric that really concerns me is whether the ICUs are getting overwhelmed, leading to our losing folks who should have never been lost. It seems like the current surge is less virulent than what we experienced in the early days - did we get better at managing the disease, did we lose our most vulnerable early (or are they all just in hiding), or has the virus mutated? Maybe all three. Regardless, it is important to maintain open eyes and a measured response to worsening conditions, if they should occur. Anyone who stands their ground in the face of our evolving understanding has an agenda, IMHO. This goes for those on both sides of the fence. Just, please wear a mask when you're close to other folks. It's heartbreaking to see friends who won't come out of their houses because of the cowboy mentality. Right or wrong, they are scared. And I'd rather be compassionate in error than righteously indignant.

[Chef]

The only metric that really concerns me is whether the ICUs are getting overwhelmed, leading to our losing folks who should have never been lost. It seems like the current surge is less virulent than what we experienced in the early days - did we get better at managing the disease, did we lose our most vulnerable early (or are they all just in hiding), or has the virus mutated? Maybe all three. Regardless, it is important to maintain open eyes and a measured response to worsening conditions, if they should occur. Anyone who stands their ground in the face of our evolving understanding has an agenda, IMHO. This goes for those on both sides of the fence. Just, please wear a mask when you're close to other folks. It's heartbreaking to see friends who won't come out of their houses because of the cowboy mentality. Right or wrong, they are scared. And I'd rather be compassionate in error than righteously indignant.

I feel this post is sort of incorrect, I don’t believe that the virus has mutated or that we are treating it better , deaths and icu stays lag cases by a few weeks. This week into next you will see those numbers soar in places like Florida and Texas


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[G-Man]

We have never cured a virus and more than likely never will.  The problem with all the numbers are they are presented by themselves, nothing for comparisons, you have to dig to find flu deaths, or even sars numbers from that plague.

  When dealing with large numbers  we cannot comprehend  370 million people  in this country, 100k dead. 100k seems like a lot but not compared to hundreds of millions.   Tiny % overall. 

People at risk should take precautions, but I feel this is much overblown , I have friend that looks at new cases every day and he feels the need to post on social media, honestly they are testing a lot more. And should find more , yet the death rate continues to drop. .. 

[Chef]

We have never cured a virus and more than likely never will.  The problem with all the numbers are they are presented by themselves, nothing for comparisons, you have to dig to find flu deaths, or even sars numbers from that plague.
  When dealing with large numbers  we cannot comprehend  370 million people  in this country, 100k dead. 100k seems like a lot but not compared to hundreds of millions.   Tiny % overall. 
People at risk should take precautions, but I feel this is much overblown , I have friend that looks at new cases every day and he feels the need to post on social media, honestly they are testing a lot more. And should find more , yet the death rate continues to drop. .. 

So some of what you have said is just not exactly true, yes testing more means we will find more cases the big issue is that the % of tests coming back positive is going up in the hot spots. That proves that more testing is not the reason for more cases.


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[knehrke]

10 hours ago, Chef said:

I feel this post is sort of incorrect, I don’t believe that the virus has mutated or that we are treating it better , deaths and icu stays lag cases by a few weeks. This week into next you will see those numbers soar in places like Florida and Texas


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You may be right in terms of # increasing in the upcoming weeks, but my experience and current hospitalizations suggest that the increase will not be what we saw in April. As for the virus mutating, that's a fact. Whether the mutated spike protein variant is more or less virulent is an open question, but it does appear to increase viral respiratory load, so it may be more infectious. I'm generally on board with you, but "datas is datas" as my postdoc says.

[BizCT]

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[Merlot]

On 7/10/2020 at 7:19 AM, Rattler said:

From the CDC's own website under COVIDView: A weekly Surveillance Summary:

Mortality

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC. 

 

The CDC's website notes that COVID deaths have continued to decrease as a percentage of total U.S. deaths and may even slip below the CDC's threshold for definition as an epidemic. 

The surge is happening mainly among younger people who are less likely to die from the virus.  They are going to bars, gyms, restaurants, protests etc.  People in older age groups are still protecting themselves.

This is the way the entire virus issue should've been handled from the beginning.

 

12 hours ago, G-Man said:

We have never cured a virus and more than likely never will.  The problem with all the numbers are they are presented by themselves, nothing for comparisons, you have to dig to find flu deaths, or even sars numbers from that plague.

  When dealing with large numbers  we cannot comprehend  370 million people  in this country, 100k dead. 100k seems like a lot but not compared to hundreds of millions.   Tiny % overall. 

People at risk should take precautions, but I feel this is much overblown , I have friend that looks at new cases every day and he feels the need to post on social media, honestly they are testing a lot more. And should find more , yet the death rate continues to drop. .. 

You would think the world was ending tomorrow with the TV coverage. Take precautions for the high risk people, but open up please...enough is enough. 134,000 deaths is a large number, but factoring in our overall population, the number is statistically insignificant. Motor vehicle accidents kill and injure hundreds of thousands of people here and around the world, each calendar year, but still see vehicles on the road. Please open up...we'll be fine.