DEER HUNTING FORECAST FOR 2015

[Larry]

here is the deer hunting forecast put out by the DEC

deerforecastr1r3.pdf2015.pdf

deerforecastr4.pdf2015.pdf

deerforecastr5.pdf2015.pdf

deerforecastr6.pdf2015.pdf

deerforecastr7.pdf2015.pdf

deerforecastr8.pdf2015.pdf

deerforecastr9.pdf2015.pdf

[sweet old bill]

I see the buck of your dreams waling along and the only missing part is you are not there, you are sitting home  watching TV...get out there this year and maybe that buck will walk by...

 

at 74,  I do not hunt as much as I did in my youth, but still love the pre hunt scouting, just walking the woods and looking for deer sign or the first buck scrape. Then the plan take shape of were to do when on opening day the guns go off. I like the early bow season, warm weather and not a lot of hunters in the woods. I let the doe's and young bucks walk so I tell my wife of 50 years, but she says I just go out to take a nap by a tree.

 

I hope all has a great hunting season

Bill

[growalot]

 

Overall deer management in the region remains as it has b

een for some time now; aggressive DMP issuance in the north

to bring about population reduction, and generally conservative issu

ance in the south, to allow deer populations to rise a bit

towards objective levels. The good news is

that, starting this fall, we will be trying

out a new tool to take more antlerless

deer in our over-populated units: In WM

Us 8A, 8C, 8F, 8G, 8H, and 8N, it will

be antlerless deer only

from October 1-15,

and during the late season dates of Dec. 14-22 (see Statewide

Introduction for more).

 

Now that's their good news? because I looked at their chart for 8N and please am I looking at it wrong? T  ell me and correct me ...but it looks like we are above what they want in doe harvest per square mile and  that  red line looks like it is even with what they  want...Am I see this wrong? I tried copying the chart but it won't let me here's the link...scroll to 8N

http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/wildlife_pdf/deerforecastr8.pdf

 

 

[Grizz1219]

4Y & 4Z are dismal reporting again.... ug...  Thank god for doe permits.... my freezer would be empty without them.. 

[growalot]

Oh... and this is really priceless...talking about 8M...

 

 

Why it was one of only tw

o of our units that saw a buck take rise

, and why it rose so steeply, is poorly

understood. This illustrate

s that there is still much

we don’t know about de

er population dynamics,

and the combination of

variables that affect them.

 

 

no shite!...lol

[dbHunterNY]

Oh... and this is really priceless...talking about 8M...

 

 

 

no shite!...lol

 

crappy reporting, fact that many cut up their own deer, and other factors are bound to cause an anomaly.  must be they just don't get it.

[dbHunterNY]

Now that's their good news? because I looked at their chart for 8N and please am I looking at it wrong? T  ell me and correct me ...but it looks like we are above what they want in doe harvest per square mile and  that  red line looks like it is even with what they  want...Am I see this wrong? I tried copying the chart but it won't let me here's the link...scroll to 8N

http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/wildlife_pdf/deerforecastr8.pdf

 

not really... 2009 was the best outcome in DEC's mind.  DEC's doe harvest target of almost 9 per sq mile is based off the buck take objective of just under 5.  You've exceeded the BTO by about 25%.  Therefore they see that as they under estimated the population, and you're new assumed doe take should be similarly higher than the harvest goal they set for doe take (the red diamond).  They will never come up with a current population estimate as it's not feasible and they instead estimate, in this way, what the population was and could be.  Therefore, you've always been under satisfactory harvest for antlerless deer.

 

...this is my understanding in talking with DEC regional biologists.

Edited August 26, 2015 by dbHunterNY

[Doc]

not really... 2009 was the best outcome in DEC's mind.  DEC's doe harvest target of almost 9 per sq mile is based off the buck take objective of just under 5.  You've exceeded the BTO by about 25%.  Therefore they see that as they under estimated the population, and you're new assumed doe take should be similarly higher than the harvest goal they set for doe take (the red diamond).  They will never come up with a current population estimate as it's not feasible and they instead estimate, in this way, what the population was and could be.  Therefore, you've always been under satisfactory harvest for antlerless deer.

 

...this is my understanding in talking with DEC regional biologists.

It all really means that you can rationalize and make any statistic come out the way you want it to by whatever twisted logic that you want to apply to make the results come out whatever you want them to.

 

 

[dbHunterNY]

It all really means that you can rationalize and make any statistic come out the way you want it to by whatever twisted logic that you want to apply to make the results come out whatever you want them to.

 

DEC making brain dead decisions to reach their harvest goals are one thing and their system and how it works is another.  Nothing's been twisted or analyzed differently.  That's the problem.  They haven't changed anything in decades.  It doesn't figure in well with selective harvest.  Our co-op was told DEC didn't want all are age data for bucks because it'd skew the average.  also 50% of doe harvest for 4C came from two QDM co-ops.  Anyway, Grow asked how it worked so I told her.

[Doc]

Ha-ha .... Ever hear that saying that "Figures don't lie, but liars figure"? Well, I have a feeling that the DEC has raised that philosophy to an art-form. I have watched the post season reports on the years when the harvest doesn't seem to come out to be what they predicted or indicated prior to the beginning of the season. It never ceases to amaze me all the various excuses that they can concoct for these anomalies. Everything except, "Gee people, it looks like we don't really have all the answers after all". Yes, they have a story for every occasion and will never admit that their processes and procedures are anything short of god-like perfection.

[landtracdeerhunter]

i thought the zone numbers were history?

 

So now, we change the zones to regions. What a crock!

Edited August 27, 2015 by landtracdeerhunter

[Larry]

Landtracdeerhunter  it’s not a crock. I think the problem is that you don’t understand the difference between a Region, Wildlife Management Unit and the NEW Buck Management Zones. So I will try to explain what each are. This is not met as a talk down so don’t take it as such. This crap can get confusing if you don’t keep up with it.
Regions the state is broken up into 9 regions. Niagara County is in region 9 I live in Monroe County which is in region 8. Inside the regions are wildlife management Units (WMU) they have numbers and letters in their designation  (9P),(8g),(7a) the number is the Region the letter is the Unit. WMU’s are how DMP’s are dished out each WMU has a number of DMP’s assigned to it. Now this is something new Buck Management Zone’s. Buck Management Zones are made up of multipole WMU’s and can be from more than one region. They are roughly made from WMU’s from the same geographical area. This is the short version.  

[gjs4]

Ha-ha .... Ever hear that saying that "Figures don't lie, but liars figure"? Well, I have a feeling that the DEC has raised that philosophy to an art-form. I have watched the post season reports on the years when the harvest doesn't seem to come out to be what they predicted or indicated prior to the beginning of the season. It never ceases to amaze me all the various excuses that they can concoct for these anomalies. Everything except, "Gee people, it looks like we don't really have all the answers after all". Yes, they have a story for every occasion and will never admit that their processes and procedures are anything short of god-like perfection.

I only "like" this post because there isn't a "love" button. Spot on!

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[nyantler]

Ha-ha .... Ever hear that saying that "Figures don't lie, but liars figure"? Well, I have a feeling that the DEC has raised that philosophy to an art-form. I have watched the post season reports on the years when the harvest doesn't seem to come out to be what they predicted or indicated prior to the beginning of the season. It never ceases to amaze me all the various excuses that they can concoct for these anomalies. Everything except, "Gee people, it looks like we don't really have all the answers after all". Yes, they have a story for every occasion and will never admit that their processes and procedures are anything short of god-like perfection.

I totally agree.. after talking to some of the biologists and hearing their responses to some of my questions I've come to the conclusion that they are completely satisfied with not knowing what they're talking about and willing to produce as much BS as possible to justify what they don't know.  

[Zag]

Now that's their good news? because I looked at their chart for 8N and please am I looking at it wrong? T  ell me and correct me ...but it looks like we are above what they want in doe harvest per square mile and  that  red line looks like it is even with what they  want...Am I see this wrong? I tried copying the chart but it won't let me here's the link...scroll to 8N

http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/wildlife_pdf/deerforecastr8.pdf

Yeah a bit confusing. It talks about the high density but in my opinion its only certain areas that are over population. Our land in 8n has significantly less deer than my two spots in 8h, not even close. I wish they could get smaller units and more specific but that wont happen.

[Trial153]

Something that is bothering me about the two week Doe only season in the specific DMU's.

Hear me out on this... Let's say you hunting the first week of the bow season in a Doe only area. Your either sex tag is effectively a doe tag for the first two weeks.

Now they can and are willing to do this based on their assessment of the need to kill more does in that DMU.

Why then are they not willing to make DMU's that have no antler less tags allocated buck only? So for example they give zero antler less tags in 3a ....and yet you can use your archery tag and muzzleloader tags on does.

How does this make sense?

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[Doc]

Something that is bothering me about the two week Doe only season in the specific DMU's.

Hear me out on this... Let's say you hunting the first week of the bow season in a Doe only area. Your either sex tag is effectively a doe tag for the first two weeks.

Now they can and are willing to do this based on their assessment of the need to kill more does in that DMU.

Why then are they not willing to make DMU's that have no antler less tags allocated buck only? So for example they give zero antler less tags in 3a ....and yet you can use your archery tag and muzzleloader tags on does.

How does this make sense?

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Yes, if bow and muzzleloader season have such a huge impact on deer herds, as apparently the DEC believes, you are absolutely correct. Those seasons logically should be buck only regardless of what season it is in order to preserve and grow the herd in that low deer density area. But then you are assuming that there is some level of consistency and logic being applied.

[A Sportsman]

I can only assume that the dec believes that while does should be protected in these low deer density areas, bow and muzzleloader hunters should be entitled to shoot a doe for no other reason than they probably worked their tail off for that doe. Furthermore, 3a is also an AR area. If you're gonna tell a guy hunting 3a with a bow that he can't shoot does, and can't shoot bucks unless they are 6 pointers, may as well also tell him he can only hunt with one arm tied behind his back.

[WNYBuckHunter]

Something that is bothering me about the two week Doe only season in the specific DMU's.

Hear me out on this... Let's say you hunting the first week of the bow season in a Doe only area. Your either sex tag is effectively a doe tag for the first two weeks.

Now they can and are willing to do this based on their assessment of the need to kill more does in that DMU.

Why then are they not willing to make DMU's that have no antler less tags allocated buck only? So for example they give zero antler less tags in 3a ....and yet you can use your archery tag and muzzleloader tags on does.

How does this make sense?

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Absolutely correct. Ive said the same thing in the past about the DEC's doe engagement issues. They simply cant manage them correctly if everyone with a bow/ML license has doe tags that can be used anywhere in the state. These tags need to be done away with or changed to WMU specific for does.

[Trial153]

Absolutely correct. Ive said the same thing in the past about the DEC's doe engagement issues. They simply cant manage them correctly if everyone with a bow/ML license has doe tags that can be used anywhere in the state. These tags need to be done away with or changed to WMU specific for does.

Exactly

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[Trial153]

I can only assume that the dec believes that while does should be protected in these low deer density areas, bow and muzzleloader hunters should be entitled to shoot a doe for no other reason than they probably worked their tail off for that doe. Furthermore, 3a is also an AR area. If you're gonna tell a guy hunting 3a with a bow that he can't shoot does, and can't shoot bucks unless they are 6 pointers, may as well also tell him he can only hunt with one arm tied behind his back.

So the level of difficulty is the deciding factor that over rides sound management practices?

That sounds logical for the NYS DEC.

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[Trial153]

Absolutely correct. Ive said the same thing in the past about the DEC's doe engagement issues. They simply cant manage them correctly if everyone with a bow/ML license has doe tags that can be used anywhere in the state. These tags need to be done away with or changed to WMU specific for does.

I often wonder what they have against having a simple and accountable system?

1 buck tag, to be used in any season

Doe tags that are person and DMU specific.

That's seems pretty easy to track.

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[WNYBuckHunter]

Im not sure either. I dont honestly mind the signover thing though. As long as its used in the WMU its supposed to, who care who fills it. JMO

[growalot]

They are counting on the fact that ppl aren't going to burn an either or tag on a doe...and if that isn't the case...as I have said in the high density areas that is doe only  if you hunt two areas  than you have only 1 tag to use in the time they want these doe shot...they make less sense...They could have said bow hunters go for your DMPS...but use your either or in the specific doe only area in that 2 wk span and we will issue you a buck tag  to use the rest of the season.... that way they give the bow hunter incentive to hunt(maybe,not me, but some)and get a deer count early.

Ya know, even a bad plan mentioned on this forums has been better then the  cluster ....they created...

[A Sportsman]

Good point Grow. That's probably what dec believes. "How many people are actually going to go into a "forever wild" area that isn't holding very many deer, to hunt with a bow. And then, of those, who actually is going to take a doe. Few I guess.