2016 Rut Predictions

[nybuckboy]

How does this sound folks.

I did my own research on this and have come up with my own peak breeding day and best time to be in the woods. Here's how I figured it and plan to bow hunt accordingly this year. Hope this helps someone else in their plans.

Whitetail doe in NY State give birth between Late May through Mid June... therefore I used May 25 through June 15 as my range. That's 22 days from the earliest birth to the latest for what we all call the main rut where 90% of all doe will be bred. Gestation in NY State is 201 days. 

Using a 2017 calendar I used June 4, 2017 as the mid way date and I counted back 201 days to November 15, 2016 as the peak breeding date. Therefore counting back 10 days when the first of the doe should be ready to be bred would be November 5th and counting forward to the 26th when the last doe would be bred. Therefore November 5th through November 26, 2016 should be the breeding season this year. 

So like every year in my book - October 30 is the date to start spending more time in the stands.  I plan to take off the week of Nov 7 -11 when all the boys should be on their feet.

 

Edited August 23, 2016 by nybuckboy

[nyslowhand]

What Grampy said - 100%. Date in my honey hole may vary, but basically Nov 5-10th has been ideal (for me) to see bucks seeking does! Forget the chasing phase of the rut! Fun to watch & be in the middle of, but you're better off with a camera than a bow when all that frenzied running around is happening!!!

 

Ignore the photo-peroid vs moon theories, Halloween is what triggers the initial phases of the rut! That's when you better have your "game face" on! Not sure how all the satanic influences or the spirit worlds effect the deer, but they do!! Right...!?!

 

OMG, I'm disillusioned, deer don't just have sex! 

[nybuckboy]

On August 13, 2016 at 10:00 AM, grampy said:

I've been keeping journals for over 35 years. And I realize its not a scientific study, just my own observations in the area I hunt. The peak day every year, when the bucks are on their feet actively searching or with a doe is November 10th give or take a day on either side. Of course there is breeding, sometimes well before and after November 10th. But the 10th is what I've come to call the magical day! This would be the day a mature buck would be seen standing in the middle of a field with a doe or cruzing with his nose to the ground. Or running a doe across a road or open area. It is a time to be in the stand all day! If there is only one day to be out there it would be November 10th!

I have a world of respect for Charlie A. as an outdoorsman, photographer, writer and hunter. But his luner predictions just never lined up with what I was actually seeing in the woods, in my area, consistently year to year. But for consistency, year to year, no matter the moon phase, it's Nov. 10th for me. Again, just my personal observations.

Last year on the 9th I had just 60 yds from my house (I live in a wooded area off the road) 2 bruisers, a tall 9 and a wide 11 and a smaller buck dogging a hot doe. They were grunting, snort wheezing and briefly pushing each other but were in pursuit of the doe. This coincides with what my predictions tell me for this season as well as the day to be in the woods for sure.

[skiop]

38 minutes ago, nyslowhand said:

 Nov 5-10th has been ideal (for me) to see bucks seeking does! Forget the chasing phase of the rut! Fun to watch & be in the middle of, but you're better off with a camera than a bow when all that frenzied running around is happening!!!

 

 

Huh? The seeking and chase are one in the same

[LetEmGrow]

I really do believe that the rut happens at the same time every year and that Alzheimer's research shows the effects that the moon has on the rut. That may not be what he intended but there have been too many studies done of dead does along the road to show that the fetal fawns were bred about the same time every year.

[First-light]

Opening day of 2015 was a great day for us. We had two hot does on the property that morning. It resulted in 4 nice bucks being killed by 11 am. There were also a few more seen trying to find the hot does during the day. It was peak for us in 8P!

[nybuckboy]

4 hours ago, LetEmGrow said:

I really do believe that the rut happens at the same time every year and that Alzheimer's research shows the effects that the moon has on the rut. That may not be what he intended but there have been too many studies done of dead does along the road to show that the fetal fawns were bred about the same time every year.

Ya know Grow, I do too! If fawns are born each year between late March and mid June, then they have to have been bred 200 days earlier every year, therefore the rut is about the same time ever year.

I do think the moon does have something to do with why we tend to see more bucks on the prowl some years than other years. Full moon nights around the Nov 15th the bucks may tend to be moving more in the night time and we will see them less during the day, whereas years with a new moon around the Nov 15th may have them on their feet more during daylight hours.

[landtracdeerhunter]

Where's the popcorn emoticon?

[Huntscreek]

I hope the rut is better here than last year. I would say by the lack of deer am seeing,slow.

[ny hunter]

Yes I agree last year was very slow saw very little rut action

[grampy]

Last year the abnormally warm weather and bountiful mast crop, kept deer movement to a minimum. But they did move! You just needed to be very close to preferred food sources or into or very close to the thickest stuff on the property, where they were bedding. They just did not need to or want to travel very far for anything last year. So less movement meant less sightings for a lot of hunters.

[LetEmGrow]

On 8/23/2016 at 7:14 AM, nybuckboy said:

Ya know Grow, I do too! If fawns are born each year between late March and mid June, then they have to have been bred 200 days earlier every year, therefore the rut is about the same time ever year.

I do think the moon does have something to do with why we tend to see more bucks on the prowl some years than other years. Full moon nights around the Nov 15th the bucks may tend to be moving more in the night time and we will see them less during the day, whereas years with a new moon around the Nov 15th may have them on their feet more during daylight hours.

In addition, I also believe that deer move very little during a full moon whether it is day or night.  They may be more active at night but do not venture very far from where they are at noon.  They may hold up in a spot for days.  With their eyes, a full moon is as bright as noon.  I remember many a night in my 45 years on this earth going out spotlighting on a full moon and seeing very few deer,

[Mossberg500Guy]

On 8/22/2016 at 8:39 PM, nybuckboy said:

How does this sound folks.

I did my own research on this and have come up with my own peak breeding day and best time to be in the woods. Here's how I figured it and plan to bow hunt accordingly this year. Hope this helps someone else in their plans.

Whitetail doe in NY State give birth between Late May through Mid June... therefore I used May 25 through June 15 as my range. That's 22 days from the earliest birth to the latest for what we all call the main rut where 90% of all doe will be bred. Gestation in NY State is 201 days. 

Using a 2017 calendar I used June 4, 2017 as the mid way date and I counted back 201 days to November 15, 2016 as the peak breeding date. Therefore counting back 10 days when the first of the doe should be ready to be bred would be November 5th and counting forward to the 26th when the last doe would be bred. Therefore November 5th through November 26, 2016 should be the breeding season this year. 

So like every year in my book - October 30 is the date to start spending more time in the stands.  I plan to take off the week of Nov 7 -11 when all the boys should be on their feet.

 

 

That is sort of what i think too, but of course it could be effected by weather, with abnormal above or below average temps could cause the peak of rut to be a week or 2 later with warm temps or earlier with cooler temps, i have always noticed it is between 45-55 degrees when i see deer most active. But i don't put too much thought into it i just get out as much as possible during the season and prepare for anything.

[NonTypical]

I'm not sure when peak rut will actually happen, but I know that I want to spend as much time in the woods as possible before the peak of the rut, or lockdown. From my experience, anytime from Halloween right on through the 10th or so is an excellent time to kill a mature buck. Down here on LI, there is plenty of pressure and a lot of mature bucks are killed in the first week of Nov. The post rut is another excellent time to kill a mature buck as well. But if I am going to target a mature buck, I'm not going to wait until the 9th or 10th, or until the new or full moon. I'll be out there every chance I can from The 31st on, especially mid day. Of course I will take into account the daily temps as well, and if a cold front comes through, I may be MIA for a few days. The way that I look at it is, every day that goes by in Nov is a day of a lost opportunity in the woods if you're not hunting, and chances are someone else might capitalize on the buck that you're hunting if you're on the couch. 

[genesee_mohican]

Any day spent in the stand between the start to the end of the season is time well spent, because you just never know when it will happen. A doe could come into estrous anytime between October to mid January. But deer move less during the day when it's warm for the most part. If I could line a day to hunt, I'd choose days following a cold front where the temps have dropped significantly and the barometric pressure is above 30 inches with calm winds. The last few hours of a rain system passing through are another favorite for me when I've seen really good deer movement. I'll watch the radar, put on the rain gear and head out to try and catch that for sure. This is not to say deer don't move when it's warm, and I'll gladly hunt those days too as I've seen some really nice bucks walking around on 70 degree days during the rut, especially during mid day. I think the theory there is, they were up most of the night while it was cool, then laid down just before we get to our stands. After resting all morning, they get the urge to take a walk and look for a hot doe again around mid day. This is why I like to stay in my stand all day mid rut when the odds are there.

 

 

[BuckThornBooners]

First heavy frost of Nov gets my blood pumping I have seen border line gang rape happen in the wood that first week of November. Bucks running around with tongs hanging out and not a care on the world.  NOV 6 I will be 25' over my water hole from sun up till dark.   I don't even start to see scrapes till late Oct It seem every area is different