Turkey numbers?

[Gobbler Chaser]

I've seen a steady decline here in lower Ulster upper Orange. Only 10 years ago I had flocks of 60+ birds walking under my fall deer hunting bow stands, and would see large groups cruising thru when I was out during rifle season. The numbers have shrunk to maybe one sighting of 5 or 6 birds in the fall and this last fall absolutely nothing. I'm sitting out now a couple mornings a week as the sky lightens as I do every pre season listening and all I'm hearing are owls. I'm more than alittle concerned.

[Steve D]

21 minutes ago, Gobbler Chaser said:

The numbers have shrunk to maybe one sighting of 5 or 6 birds in the fall and this last fall absolutely nothing. I'm sitting out now a couple mornings a week as the sky lightens as I do every pre season listening and all I'm hearing are owls.

Can't speak for other areas but here I have seen a flock/group in my field and the neighbors field off & on for the last couple of weeks. Lat time I counted there were 23 birds most of which are mature gobblers. There are a few hens and three or four jakes with them but most are big birds strutting their stuff. 

I have only heard them gobbling a couple of times in the past couple of weeks but I know they are there.

They hang out in this area year round and are seen quite often during bow & gun. I am pretty sure there are more birds around but in smaller groups and not seen as often.

With the pressure they get here they won't be vocal for long but they do stay in the area like little ninja's.

[Grouse]

The numbers were way down in Delaware Cty about 3 years ago.  The blame was placed on high coyote numbers and fisher populations increasing.

This year the turkey numbers seem to be coming back up some, albeit far less than their peak a decade or so ago.  Seems when their numbers get really low, the predators move on and that allows the turkey numbers to grow again.

Last year I still had coyote coming into my turkey calls though.

 

[Five Seasons]

35 minutes ago, Gobbler Chaser said:

I've seen a steady decline here in lower Ulster upper Orange. Only 10 years ago I had flocks of 60+ birds walking under my fall deer hunting bow stands, and would see large groups cruising thru when I was out during rifle season. The numbers have shrunk to maybe one sighting of 5 or 6 birds in the fall and this last fall absolutely nothing. I'm sitting out now a couple mornings a week as the sky lightens as I do every pre season listening and all I'm hearing are owls. I'm more than alittle concerned.

It's an odd thing for me. I seem to see the same number on my cams and in the fall that I have for the 8 years or so I've been turkey hunting, but in the spring I've had a steady decline in sightings and gobbling over the last 3 to 5 years even though I've had success in this time.

I still believe our season is at least 2 weeks late and given how fickle our weather can be I believe this can make a huge impact if it doesn't hit right.

Sure, a good and dedicated hunter will get their birds. But odds and difficulty can swing drastically. 

 

Final point. About 15-20 years ago the turkey numbers were insane. We then had an old overgrown vineyard on the east side plowed for corn. Absolutely destroyed prime nesting habitat and the numbers never came back. Look around your neighborhood and if you've had a lot of housing developments or old fallow fields tilled, you're losing habitat and it could explain some drops in numbers. 

[G-Man]

Many factors increased number 1st is weather effecting previous years hatch, the next is habitat, many are no intofood plotting and " make a plot "out of any fallow field they have. Running prime nesting and bugging areas.  Woods mature and further nesting is removed.. and predators are the last on my list as a issue.. 

[LET EM GROW]

Numbers get lower and lower it seems, and all for the reasons Gman explains and basically in that order IMO.. But also, more on the predator issue, They everywhere they turn. Birds in the sky, Coyotes, Fishers(which can climb the roost tree and whack them), Raccoons, Skunks, Possum raiding nests, Us humans bumping nests and calling and shooting them. The allowance to shoot a bearded hen in Spring.  If hens dont have a successful hatch in their first year or two of life they typically will never have a successful hatch.. So many Factors and the DEC really fail to protect them.  Mowing fields at the wrong time of year... 

I also believe birds in certain areas gobble less frequent due to predation.. They gobble and let predators(like us) know exactly where they are.. 

I wish our numbers were like they used to be 10-20 years ago. 

1 Bird in spring, No bearded hens, No fall harvests for a few years. Also and open up a season on fisher and longer season on Raccoon since Trapping is becoming a past time.. This winter at the beginning or the end of our coyote sets I would call raccoons. They are so easy and so fun to call in.. More people should get into it, especially with youths. Give these turkey a chance, as their numbers continue to dwindle 

[DirtTime]

5 hours ago, Belo said:

It's an odd thing for me. I seem to see the same number on my cams and in the fall that I have for the 8 years or so I've been turkey hunting, but in the spring I've had a steady decline in sightings and gobbling over the last 3 to 5 years even though I've had success in this time.

I still believe our season is at least 2 weeks late and given how fickle our weather can be I believe this can make a huge impact if it doesn't hit right.

Sure, a good and dedicated hunter will get their birds. But odds and difficulty can swing drastically. 

 

Final point. About 15-20 years ago the turkey numbers were insane. We then had an old overgrown vineyard on the east side plowed for corn. Absolutely destroyed prime nesting habitat and the numbers never came back. Look around your neighborhood and if you've had a lot of housing developments or old fallow fields tilled, you're losing habitat and it could explain some drops in numbers. 

I think this is what's making the birds show up in different areas near me, and in larger numbers. They have built two new housing developments and a third is in the works. They are pretty large with appx. 20-30 new houses in each.

 

They are also putting in some sort of solar panel field not that far away, which was an area I would see deer and turkey in all the time. I now see them a few miles away and closer to some public land I hunt.

 

So I'm hoping for a good year in that area.

[Gobbler Chaser]

41 minutes ago, blackbeltbill said:

I am seeing the complete opposite  of what you are observing. 

  I myself have been taking care of  21 Wild Turkeys. No Hunting where,I  live.

  Turkey numbers in my area- Orange + Rockland County's  as well as Passaic  County, NJ  continue to increase since 2015 when the DEC slashed the Fall Turkey Season  by 1 Octoberfull Month, cut the take down to 1 Fall Bird  and moved the October  1st opener back nearly 3 weeks to 20th.

   That is a full 6 1/2 years since the change in the Fall Turkey Season.

    Hunters keep losing more + more and you want a 1 Gobbler Spring Limit. ..

  Most are seeing + Hearing more Gobblers this year.

  

Yes that area of the state that you hunt seems to hold a good population. I have family in lower Orange/Rockland and they have birds in their yards, fields and just abi everywhere.

 

[Gobbler Chaser]

Thing is hear nothing seems to have changed. Yote population is down, locals doing a great job of keeping them in control. Last couple winters haven't been that bad. Here I am retired and the birds are gone. When I used to head out to work at daybreak just a light tap on my truck horn would make 4 or 5 birds sound off a few hundred feet in the woods. Oh well?

[G-Man]

2 hours ago, Gobbler Chaser said:

Thing is hear nothing seems to have changed. Yote population is down, locals doing a great job of keeping them in control. Last couple winters haven't been that bad. Here I am retired and the birds are gone. When I used to head out to work at daybreak just a light tap on my truck horn would make 4 or 5 birds sound off a few hundred feet in the woods. Oh well?

Bad hatches for several years did a job on turkey numbers , now last year was a good hatch here so numbers jumped.  That is the biggest factor and how undisturbed the woods are a daily walk in the wood will drive birds out of the area.  

[G-Man]

4 hours ago, LET EM GROW said:

Numbers get lower and lower it seems, and all for the reasons Gman explains and basically in that order IMO.. But also, more on the predator issue, They everywhere they turn. Birds in the sky, Coyotes, Fishers(which can climb the roost tree and whack them), Raccoons, Skunks, Possum raiding nests, Us humans bumping nests and calling and shooting them. The allowance to shoot a bearded hen in Spring.  If hens dont have a successful hatch in their first year or two of life they typically will never have a successful hatch.. So many Factors and the DEC really fail to protect them.  Mowing fields at the wrong time of year... 

I also believe birds in certain areas gobble less frequent due to predation.. They gobble and let predators(like us) know exactly where they are.. 

I wish our numbers were like they used to be 10-20 years ago. 

1 Bird in spring, No bearded hens, No fall harvests for a few years. Also and open up a season on fisher and longer season on Raccoon since Trapping is becoming a past time.. This winter at the beginning or the end of our coyote sets I would call raccoons. They are so easy and so fun to call in.. More people should get into it, especially with youths. Give these turkey a chance, as their numbers continue to dwindle 

No reason to stop a fall hunt ,many young of the year birds will die over winter , taking those birds make no change,  taking gobblers in the fall or adult hens I can see an issue,  though I have had chances at gobblers in the fall and have taken a few I stopped years ago, they know how to survive a winter and Iike to hear them.in the spring.  So I leave them be, a young 8 to 10 lb bird in fall is perfect for Thanksgiving dinner imo. 

[Nytracker]

My little slice of heaven never had many birds. Some up acrossed the valley 1/2 a mile away . Now i see birds regularly in the fall . Have them on trail cam daily.  Had a flock of 8 long beards roosting  on my property  all last fall . My grouse population  is down and I have foxes ,yotes, Bob cats,and fishers on camera . I almost never see coons .

[The_Real_TCIII]

I feel feel like they're down around me. Just my observation but I'm not seeing flocks where I'm used to seeing them


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Gobbler Chaser]

9 hours ago, G-Man said:

Bad hatches for several years did a job on turkey numbers , now last year was a good hatch here so numbers jumped.  That is the biggest factor and how undisturbed the woods are a daily walk in the wood will drive birds out of the area.  

Yep, it seems turkey numbers can be very volatile. In the last say decade of declining numbers I do recall one or two seasons where things perked up and I thought, hey it's back to normal only to be disappointed early in the season and following fall. 

[LET EM GROW]

11 hours ago, G-Man said:

No reason to stop a fall hunt ,many young of the year birds will die over winter , taking those birds make no change,  taking gobblers in the fall or adult hens I can see an issue,  though I have had chances at gobblers in the fall and have taken a few I stopped years ago, they know how to survive a winter and Iike to hear them.in the spring.  So I leave them be, a young 8 to 10 lb bird in fall is perfect for Thanksgiving dinner imo. 

Completely Agreed, but who really goes out in the fall, and intentionally gets on a group of birds and targets the smallest bird of the flock? Very very few people, if anyone.. Leaving this fall season open to harvesting probably the best birds for reproduction.. They Pick out the longbeard or big fat hen and send it.. And research shows many Jakes are ill equipped to successfully breed hens.. Just stating

I think many hunters also specifically target the big hens in fall as they make spring hunting harder.. Not knowing..

And youre right, there probably isnt enough birds really being taken in Fall to really make a big difference, unless a group of birds walks within range of someone in their bow stand.. i think most people are hunting deer..  

But at my place on the 1300 acres i have access to, not far from you. And even as diverse as it is, Ridges, bottoms, Hills facing every direction, Pines, Fallow fields, Water you name it.. Im lucky to see 1 or 2 hens every year with a half dozen poults by fall.. Probably the same hens each year. And with running cameras.. from June to September the poult numbers in these groups slowly drop.. 

My observations anyways..   

[LET EM GROW]

15 hours ago, blackbeltbill said:

I am seeing the complete opposite  of what you are observing. 

  I myself have been taking care of  21 Wild Turkeys. No Hunting where,I  live.

  Turkey numbers in my area- Orange + Rockland County's  as well as Passaic  County, NJ  continue to increase since 2015 when the DEC slashed the Fall Turkey Season  by 1 Octoberfull Month, cut the take down to 1 Fall Bird  and moved the October  1st opener back nearly 3 weeks to 20th.

   That is a full 6 1/2 years since the change in the Fall Turkey Season.

    Hunters keep losing more + more and you want a 1 Gobbler Spring Limit. ..

  Most are seeing + Hearing more Gobblers this year.

  

That is a good problem to have, There were years we could all tag out on opening weekend. And in the last 10 years youd be lucky to have a guy or two tag out.. pursuing longbeards only. The numbers used to be phenomnanl .. 5-6 longbeards opening weeknd was aweome! year after year after year, and of course when spring weather doesnt cooperate we can ruin the population fast.. Hence the reaosn why i preach hunter education and research the wildlife we pursue as we can wipe out populations quick too as nothing is promised.. smash a bunch of red heads in Spring and have a horrible hatch.. or 2 in a row and we go straight back.. 

I just wish The DEC can make some changes to eligible birds for spring tags.. We need to think of our Future, not right now.. And the majority of people you talk with dont see the numbers they used to.

Im still in contact with DEC as im receiving a bunch of stolen hunting gear back from a poaching/theft issue at my camp. I will ask him and pick his brain. These Birds need perfect habitat or they dont thrive 

[mowin]

Every ys my cousin who lives 7 mile from me has over 100 birds wintering on his farm. They stand under the horses feet and wait for the grain to fall, as there messy eaters.  By this time of yr, the flock has split significantly to probably 6-8 toms, bunch of Jake's and hens. 

The area I hunt has increased over the past two springs. Been seeing a lots of nice birds in the fields. 

[G-Man]

1 hour ago, LET EM GROW said:

That is a good problem to have, There were years we could all tag out on opening weekend. And in the last 10 years youd be lucky to have a guy or two tag out.. pursuing longbeards only. The numbers used to be phenomnanl .. 5-6 longbeards opening weeknd was aweome! year after year after year, and of course when spring weather doesnt cooperate we can ruin the population fast.. Hence the reaosn why i preach hunter education and research the wildlife we pursue as we can wipe out populations quick too as nothing is promised.. smash a bunch of red heads in Spring and have a horrible hatch.. or 2 in a row and we go straight back.. 

I just wish The DEC can make some changes to eligible birds for spring tags.. We need to think of our Future, not right now.. And the majority of people you talk with dont see the numbers they used to.

Im still in contact with DEC as im receiving a bunch of stolen hunting gear back from a poaching/theft issue at my camp. I will ask him and pick his brain. These Birds need perfect habitat or they dont thrive 

I'd like to see 1 bird before may 15th and 1 bird after the 15th ,like it use to be spread out the hunters as a guy may take week vacation to kill. 2 birds but may not if can only get one, as the saying goes 10% get 90%.. a little longer for the guys that dont have time to hunt 1st week...

Edited April 14, 2021 by G-Man

[LET EM GROW]

Yep! And I wouldn’t mind that either. I just want a turkey hunting future for our youth. Our grandkids etc..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Gobbler Chaser]

And meanwhile Suffolk County down on the sandbar has a rapidly expanding turkey population. I grew up in what used to be rural Suffolk County, cabbage and duck farms as far as the eye could see, and we used to come up to Orange/Ulster counties to hunt spring turkey.

[Sir-diealot]

The numbers here on this side of Yates County have absolutely plummeted, between 3 "English" families and most Mennonites in the area plowing under every tree and hedgerow in site and filling in ponds the habitat has been decimated here.

Another reason you see the population going down everywhere besides habitat loss cause by many things is modern farming practices, it used to be people would not even make their first cutting of hay until around or after the Fourth of July, now you see them doing it in late may or mid June which means the nests are getting destroyed and poults are getting sucked into the machinery or simply run over or chopped up by the farming implements. The equipment is also much faster, a turkey can run 30MPH on the flat but you add all these different kinds of vegetation in their way and with the increased speed of the tractors and also how low things get cut now as compared to how it used to be and they do not stand a chance.

Another thing I would like to see is more people adding food plots for turkey, you see people out the wazoo planting for deer but not many specifically for turkey. People say "Oh I am planting clover" but they are not planting the broad leave clovers that not only help the turkey to eat but they also provide a hiding place for poults from predatory birds and other predators.

I know I am the odd man out here but I wish they would take away killing hens period, in both seasons, the logic of killing a hen eludes me, you kill a hen you are killing your future. I am also not opposed to a one tom limit in the Spring, but only as a 3 years study to start and make a decision after that based on the evidence of doing away with killing hens altogether and a 1 tom Spring and 1 tom Fall season.

What is being done is NOT working, if you take time to listen to Mike Chamberlains interviews you will learn for the most part we are losing this fight, I would rather lose the chance at a second tom for a short period of time than to lose being able to hunt them at all for a period of time or ever.

 

 

Edited April 15, 2021 by Sir-diealot
Spelling error

[Buckmaster7600]

The nice thing about turkey numbers are if they’re down one place they’re probably up somewhere else. When numbers were low around my house I started hunting the Adirondacks and Catskills a lot more and found I would way rather hunt mountain birds. We have so much public land in this state it makes it easy to find turkeys to hunt.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Gobbler Chaser]

12 minutes ago, Buckmaster7600 said:

The nice thing about turkey numbers are if they’re down one place they’re probably up somewhere else. When numbers were low around my house I started hunting the Adirondacks and Catskills a lot more and found I would way rather hunt mountain birds. We have so much public land in this state it makes it easy to find turkeys to hunt.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, alot of us have become spoiled being able to walk out our doors to hunt turkey. I myself have hunted nearby state land last season. I didn't score but did have some calling interaction. I'm planning on heading over for some early morning coffee, ears open by the side of the road scouting next week.

[Gobbler Chaser]

26 minutes ago, Sir-diealot said:

The numbers here on this side of Yates County have absolutely plummeted, between 3 "English" families and most Mennonites in the area plowing under every tree and hedgerow in site and filling in ponds the habitat has been decimated here.

Another reason you see the population going down everywhere besides habitat loss cause by many things is modern farming practices, it used to be people would not even make their first cutting of hay until around or after the Fourth of July, now you see them doing it in late may or mid June which means the nests are getting destroyed and poults are getting sucked into the machinery or simply run over or chopped up by the farming implements. The equipment is also much faster, a turkey can run 30MPH on the flat but you add all these different kinds of vegetation in their way and with the increased speed of the tractors and also how low things get cut now as compared to how it used to be and they do not stand a chance.

Another thing I would like to see is more people adding food plots for turkey, you see people out the wazoo planting for deer but not many specifically for turkey. People say "Oh I am planting clover" but they are not planting the broad leave clovers that not only help the turkey to eat but they also provide a hiding place for poults from predatory birds and other predators.

I know I am the odd man out here but I wish they would take away killing hens period, in both seasons, the logic of killing a hen eludes me, you kill a hen you are killing your future. I am also not opposed to a one tom limit in the Spring, but only as a 3 years study to start and make a decision after that based on the evidence of doing away with killing hens altogether and a 1 tom Spring and 1 tom Fall season.

What is being done is NOT working, if you take time to listen to Mike Chamberlains interviews you will learn for the most part we are losing this fight, I would rather lose the chance at a second tom for a short period of time than to lose being able to hunt them at all for a period of time or ever.

 

 

Your right about early hay cutting. I passed a hay field a few years back and saw dead poults everywhere. Right on the road squashed as they fled cutting and walked across the road getting run over by cars. My wife was, what are all these dead birds, so I pulled over to check it out and they were young turkeys.

[Sir-diealot]

The nice thing about turkey numbers are if they’re down one place they’re probably up somewhere else. When numbers were low around my house I started hunting the Adirondacks and Catskills a lot more and found I would way rather hunt mountain birds. We have so much public land in this state it makes it easy to find turkeys to hunt.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is not accurate, if they are down in one area and back up in another (or more accurately perceived up) is because a turkey flock will migrate to the area you think you are seeing more in if they have lost habitat or predation has increased to much in previous area.

Also somebody stated above if they do not do well in the first 2 years they never will, the science says different, each year is it's own year.

Another thing stated above said if the top tom gets killed they will just move to the next one down, this is also inaccurate, the fight for the pecking order happens all over again and a hen will not breed with another until that is done Mike Chamberlain covered this in another podcast not long ago.

To add another study cameras showed that crows and other predatory birds are more likely to raid a nest than coon, skunk or opossum, or more likely to do it first may be a better way to put it. So add crow to your hunting list. By the way that was shown by cameras being placed viewing nests or abandoned nests with chicken eggs placed in them.

Sent from my S30U+ using Tapatalk