Corona Virus Thread

[turkeyfeathers]

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[BizCT]

I wonder what the Vegas odds are of this coming anywhere close to 2009 flu in the US? I think 13K died. Coronavirus is at like 10 people I think. Got a long way to go but spring is near


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[cynthiafu]

  On 3/5/2020 at 8:02 PM, Nomad said:

I typically have “ supplies “ at home particularly consumables , so events like these I’m already set . However I take one OTC med. a H2 blocker , I currently have about a months supply, thought there was another bottle of 250, but can’t find it, so the Mrs went to Walmart and I asked her to get some , this is the aisle .

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Our shelves  look like that too

[Five Seasons]

  On 3/2/2020 at 6:23 PM, squirrelwhisperer said:

My father is in HI now. Leaving Friday. I will let you know how much of a PITA it was for him. 

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i've been on planes 2 weeks in a row now. it hasn't been a big deal. I do my normal hand washing like i always do, because people are gross. That said, I'm more worried about "decisions" that are made for me. 

[Five Seasons]

  On 3/5/2020 at 9:50 PM, crappyice said:

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i've seen this all over social media. While it's not incorrect, those numbers are total numbers and are not normalized based on rate of infection and mortality rate. The mortality rate for corona is >2%, the normal flu is <1%.

For those that struggled in math, for every 100k people that get the flu <1k people die. For every 100k that get corona ~20k will die. And yes many of those that die are sick and elderly, but I know a few elderly people I love very much and I know a few that have chronic health issues (including a few on this forum).

So just take that into consideration when downplaying the virus and what it's potential could be if it spreads like the flu (or worse).

[moog5050]

  On 3/5/2020 at 11:33 PM, cynthiafu said:

Our shelves  look like that too

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I mentioned to my wife that I hope nobody gets a cold/flu (not covid 19 - just any flu) in the family as I understand the stores are running our of meds.   So last night she went out to stock up on some Theraflu.  She said there was plenty at walgreens along with hand sanitizer.  I guess we are a bit slow up here to catch on to trends.  lol

[Robhuntandfish]

I say no better time than now for NY to part with NYC. Build that Wall. Lol

They have Cuomo and Coronavirus and nothing else I need. 

[Elmo]

  On 3/6/2020 at 2:05 PM, Belo said:

i've seen this all over social media. While it's not incorrect, those numbers are total numbers and are not normalized based on rate of infection and mortality rate. The mortality rate for corona is >2%, the normal flu is <1%.

For those that struggled in math, for every 100k people that get the flu <1k people die. For every 100k that get corona ~20k will die. And yes many of those that die are sick and elderly, but I know a few elderly people I love very much and I know a few that have chronic health issues (including a few on this forum).

So just take that into consideration when downplaying the virus and what it's potential could be if it spreads like the flu (or worse).

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Not to down play the seriousness of the virus as my parents fall into the over 50 crowd as pretty much everyone else on this forum.  The argument is that if they are deriving the %2 based on 2000 death from 100K cases, the percentage would be lower because it is way more than 100K cases.  There could be potentially another 100K cases that are not reported since the symptoms are vague.  When people get the flu, they know they have it.  for COVID-19, you can have a slight fever and you're not reporting it as a coronavirus case.  You may simply think you got out of the wrong side of the bed and go about your day.  That's what is making this virus so contagious.  So in reality, the math could in reality be 2000 death in 200K cases which would put the percentage at 1% instead of 2%.

[Marion]

  On 3/6/2020 at 2:05 PM, Belo said:

For those that struggled in math, for every 100k people that get the flu

Bro I think YOU struggle in math. 2% of 100k is 2k not 20k

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[Deleted Account]

Lots of "hunches" rolling around out there, with no solid science to back them up. I'll trust the professionals, take the suggested precautions, and live my life. It will be nice when they figure this out and people who really don't know what they are talking about can stop speculating.

[OtiscoPaul]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:02 PM, The Jerkman said:

 

 

Bro I think YOU struggle in math. 2% of 100k is 2k not 20k

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Currently about 3500 deaths globally out of 100,000 reported cases as of today is 3.5% from reported which does not include untested mild cases (probably a large number)

Still best to try not to spread it

Edited March 6, 2020 by OtiscoPaul

[Marion]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:17 PM, OtiscoPaul said:

Currently about 3500 deaths globally out of 100,000 reported cases as of today is 3.5% from reported which does not include untested mild cases (probably a large number)
Still best to try not to spread it

Oh definitely nobody should spread it. A single death is more than should be. If you have symptoms self quarantine and don't spread it

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[Deleted Account]

And please, I don't care what anyone says, this isn't a hoax, and it isn't political. People are getting really sick, and human beings are dying. The most important thing anyone can do is take it seriously and protect yourself and those around you by taking simple precautions.

[steve863]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:22 PM, Splitear_Leland said:

And please, I don't care what anyone says, this isn't a hoax, and it isn't political. People are getting really sick, and human beings are dying. The most important thing anyone can do is take it seriously and protect yourself and those around you by taking simple precautions.

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No one is saying that it's a hoax, only that humanity shouldn't be freaking out the way they are over this.  People die every minute of the day of all sorts of ailments and will continue to with or without the corona virus.

[Al Bundy]

I hadnt heard people thinking its a hoax. The only "hoax" I hear is Chinese news sources saying the virus really was started in the US and came to china from here. People actually believe this, since its from professionals...

 

[Deleted Account]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:30 PM, steve863 said:

No one is saying that it's a hoax, only that humanity shouldn't be freaking out the way they are over this.  People die every minute of the day of all sorts of ailments and will continue to with or without the corona virus.

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I have seen it pop up a few times on social media, from people who should really know better. 

I understand that people die from lots of things, I really do. I'm not saying anyone should panic, but also, we shouldn't be downplaying it based off of hunches while ignoring the science. Again, I'm not advocating for anything other than what I would assume everyone here would agree with, take simple precautions. For you it may not be anything more than a moderate flu, but on down the line it should be a very serious illness for other folks. 

[Deleted Account]

My buddy who just got back from the Bahamas is quarantined in his apartment, his work told him up to 2 weeks. I told him if he needs any supplies, I'll bring them over in a Tyvek suit. I'm sure his neighbors would really appreciate it

[cynthiafu]

  On 3/6/2020 at 2:11 PM, moog5050 said:

I mentioned to my wife that I hope nobody gets a cold/flu (not covid 19 - just any flu) in the family as I understand the stores are running our of meds.   So last night she went out to stock up on some Theraflu.  She said there was plenty at walgreens along with hand sanitizer.  I guess we are a bit slow up here to catch on to trends.  lol

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Send some our way lolol

[Al Bundy]

Logic: Infected numbers are grossly under reported. 

Logic: Nearly all (if not all) serious cases are reported

Science: 100K reported cases, deaths are roughly 3K and OF REPORTED CASES death toll is 2-3 % or there about.

Logic: That number will be lower, due to the number of unreported cases.

 

[BizCT]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:59 PM, Al Bundy said:

Logic: Infected numbers are grossly under reported. 

Logic: Nearly all (if not all) serious cases are reported

Science: 100K reported cases, deaths are roughly 3K and OF REPORTED CASES death toll is 2-3 % or there about.

Logic: That number will be lower, due to the number of unreported cases.

 

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Agreed. well under 1% true death IMO

[UpStateRedNeck]

People are crapping themselves up here, something going around that a guilderland family "may have been exposed" to the virus.

[BizCT]

  On 3/6/2020 at 5:58 PM, UpStateRedNeck said:

People are crapping themselves up here, something going around that a guilderland family "may have been exposed" to the virus.

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I'm exposed to the virus every single day on metro north and in NYC

[moog5050]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:56 PM, cynthiafu said:

Send some our way lolol

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I would be happy to but in times of the apocalypse such as this, its every person for themselves.  Already locked up in safe so family can't access either!

If you really need flu meds, just shout.

[Five Seasons]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:02 PM, The Jerkman said:

 

 

Bro I think YOU struggle in math. 2% of 100k is 2k not 20k

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haha yeah i realize that. was rushing and can't back out now. No excuse there.

it's up to 3.4%, but the argument still holds water.

<100 deaths with the flu, and 3.4k with corona

[Five Seasons]

  On 3/6/2020 at 4:30 PM, steve863 said:

No one is saying that it's a hoax, only that humanity shouldn't be freaking out the way they are over this.  People die every minute of the day of all sorts of ailments and will continue to with or without the corona virus.

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some are. and some are politicizing it