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Al Bundy
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Just a quick update on my daughter. Saturday was a really tough day, she was a little furnace and really felt terrible. Yesterday her fever broke and she actually ate something. This morning she woke

JimR
JimR

Where I want to be vs where I need to be. Respiratory Therapist in a Buffalo ICU.

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phade Mentor

phade

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Belo said:

we have vpn, but we're learning the pipe isn't big enough to assist everyone at one time. Sort of like the hospital system, it's designed to handle the normal volume.

Same - been working 24/7 for the past week.

Hospitals are built on speed and finesse. They had/have no capacity for brute force issues, which this is. I had spine surgery scheduled for Wednesday at Highland and they canceled it on me last night. Moving space, equipment, and resources to this issue.

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phade Mentor

phade

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7 minutes ago, squirrelwhisperer said:

Ok, let's start it...it has to be said...

 

I keep hearing everyone commenting on the "warmer weather" hopefully killing off some of this virus....Do we not realize that is why they keep hospitals cold? In all likelihood, this virus will thrive in warmer weather. 

We don't know the answer. It's a novel virus. Some data shows reduced impact in countries with hot, humid weather near equator, but data sets are limited. It could thrive, but it could also be impacted similar to other viruses that transmit in similar fashion. Those have proven to be less transmittable in those areas/climates.

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Chef Grand Master

Chef

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Cuomo on air right now.
Up to this point I really haven't had a strong opinion of him either way, but he is acting like a crisis leader should: straight facts - here's a realistic idea of what's coming - here's what you realistically can expect - here's what we (and NJ/CT) are doing - calling out legitimate bullshit - rallying the troops.
I think Trump is waving a letter from Google around saying, "see, they are building a website like I said." 

I hate cuomo, have always hated cuomo but I have to say he was 100% right today. He did look like a good leader


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Elmo Rookie

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Since I'm on "vacation" and not laid off, I still have my benefits and cell phone paid for.  I can't remember the last time I've actually paid for my cell phone.  Do need go in whenever my boss (only IT guy left in there) calls out sick.  I got enough savings to last me a good amount of time.  While I actually somewhat relieved and looking forward to some time off especially during this crap storm, I do hope this is over very quickly.

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BizCT Grand Master

BizCT

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My brother said They are now screening even employees at a single entrance point walking into the hospital. A thorough assessment of each person and Anyone with even 99.5 which isn’t a fever actually, is now being sent away/home


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left field Mentor

left field

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51 minutes ago, Chef said:

I hate cuomo, have always hated cuomo but I have to say he was 100% right today. He did look like a good leader

That was my point. Leadership.

This was just sent to me by a finance friend. While it offers no new info, and sugarcoats a few aspects, it does seem to lay out things fairly clearly.

Quote
Summary of Goldman Sachs Investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

 

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Pygmy Experienced

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I just got home from the Campbell Legion...

There is a sign on the door that says  CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

The SKY is falling  !!

Tonite I shall sit in the bathtub, open a beer and then open a vein...

Farewell, my friends...It has been fun....<<sigh>>…...

 

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GreeneHunter Grand Master

GreeneHunter

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3 minutes ago, Pygmy said:

I just got home from the Campbell Legion...

There is a sign on the door that says  CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

The SKY is falling  !!

Tonite I shall sit in the bathtub, open a beer and then open a vein...

Farewell, my friends...It has been fun....<<sigh>>…...

 

Can I have your Guns …. asking for a friend !

 

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steve863 Community Regular

steve863

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6 minutes ago, left field said:

That was my point. Leadership.

This was just sent to me by a finance friend. While it offers no new info, and sugarcoats a few aspects, it does seem to lay out things fairly clearly.

 

 

6 minutes ago, left field said:

Summary of Goldman Sachs Investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

 

And exactly how would Goldman Sachs investors know that 50% of Americans and 70% of Germans will get this virus??  They can't even predict the financial health of their own companies (on a normal day) and we are supposed to believe their predictions on how many people will get this virus?  That's laughable!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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left field Mentor

left field

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23 minutes ago, steve863 said:

And exactly how would Goldman Sachs investors know that 50% of Americans and 70% of Germans will get this virus??  They can't even predict the financial health of their own companies (on a normal day) and we are supposed to believe their predictions on how many people will get this virus?  That's laughable!

I hope we’re all laughing soon. 

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The_Real_TCIII Grand Master

The_Real_TCIII

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2 hours ago, moog5050 said:

There are laws against price gouging in emergency situations but not sure if they only apply to those that sell in the normal course.  I just hope they eat the 17K in sanitizer and are left with only really cleans hands for the rest of their lives.

I hope they actually eat it

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Marion Proficient

Marion

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I just got home from the Campbell Legion...
There is a sign on the door that says  CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
The SKY is falling  !!
Tonite I shall sit in the bathtub, open a beer and then open a vein...
Farewell, my friends...It has been fun....>…...
 
Say it ain't so!

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Five Seasons Grand Master

Five Seasons

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2 hours ago, squirrelwhisperer said:

Ok, let's start it...it has to be said...

 

I keep hearing everyone commenting on the "warmer weather" hopefully killing off some of this virus....Do we not realize that is why they keep hospitals cold? In all likelihood, this virus will thrive in warmer weather. 

it's not the warm weather part, it's the open doors and windows and fresh air. Many viruses are volatilized as people sneeze and cough and then sit on surfaces to die, or get picked up by someones hands and then placed into their eye, nose or mouth. That's why they say to wash your GD hands.

With the windows and doors open and people outside, the air isn't recirculating the same nasty infected stuff and the fresh air is clean. Additionally, we're all fighting the seasonal cold which is just another way for corona to travel. 

If you want to spread panic, it's the concern that allergies make people cough and sneeze ;)

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