nybuckboy

2019 Rut Predictions

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If all goes well I'll be out there starting Nov 3

 

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Where at? If I remember right you hunt Putnam county?

 

 

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But...but...Buckstopshere, this isn't based on your typical rutting moon theory timing we've debated before! Whatz up with this?

I'd agree Nov 11th is sort of a historical rut date, +/- 5->7 days. I found it kind of baffling when he casually mentioned a full moon Nov 12th and didn't give any insight on that hunting phenomenon. Just a clarification from the author of the linked article, when you mention the "peak" rut, assuming it is the "chasing" stage!?! OMFG, that's exciting and fun to watch, but I prefer and have better luck during the prior "seeking" stage when the bucks are on their feet & traveling more and aren't so frenzied or testosterone charged. And ... as the author stated the real unpredictable wild card gets factored in - the weather! Guess if it were so predictable, it wouldn't be fun anymore, huh!?!

Another interesting article, Mr. Oak Duke!!!

 

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Where at? If I remember right you hunt Putnam county?
 
 
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There and Orange. Probably starting off at Cranberry.

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Are libs really that crazy?

NRA Member

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I'm off at 3 weeks in november.. I will see what happens


I've hunted almost everyday of my life.. the rest have been wasted!

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8 minutes ago, bugsNbows said:

Too bad Charlie Alsheimer passed. I always enjoyed his predictions and writings.

I might be mistaken, but doesn't D&DH still do predictions based on his theories and criteria?

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First two weeks of Nov. every year . 

Lets see I’m off Jan 1 till Dec 31, that should do , it I can still draw a bow .

 

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They can predict away, it ALL hinges on weather period. If it’s warmer than it should be it will be a slow rut. 

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On 6/22/2019 at 4:09 AM, nyslowhand said:

But...but...Buckstopshere, this isn't based on your typical rutting moon theory timing we've debated before! Whatz up with this?

I'd agree Nov 11th is sort of a historical rut date, +/- 5->7 days. I found it kind of baffling when he casually mentioned a full moon Nov 12th and didn't give any insight on that hunting phenomenon. Just a clarification from the author of the linked article, when you mention the "peak" rut, assuming it is the "chasing" stage!?! OMFG, that's exciting and fun to watch, but I prefer and have better luck during the prior "seeking" stage when the bucks are on their feet & traveling more and aren't so frenzied or testosterone charged. And ... as the author stated the real unpredictable wild card gets factored in - the weather! Guess if it were so predictable, it wouldn't be fun anymore, huh!?!

Another interesting article, Mr. Oak Duke!!!

 

Thanks! Two good things about being such an old timer. One, there is a lot of history. And also since I have been a writer for so many years...I write it down so I can look back on prior ruts. I killed my first rutting buck with a bow in 1971 and as my family will attest, have hunted Pa. and NY hard in bow and gun since (except for the last few years in Pa.) Back 30 years ago the prediction model was new. Now we are coming up on the second Metonic cycle (moon cycles every 19 years) and the predictions are pretty much a slam dunk. 

Right...what I call the rut is "the apparent rut" when we hear grunting, chasing (lots of time it's actually bucks chasing other bucks,) peak incidence of car/deer crashes, all validated by the spring fawn drop. I like to hunt the peak of the rut. I kill or have my best chances then because they are moving and so distracted by everything that is going on...from does in heat to other bucks moving in on them. The rut will happen in mid-November this year...climate change/ heat or not. Think about it. The air temperature never affected me when I was a young man with amorous intentions. Did it affect you? I used to breed dogs. Try to break up two dogs in heat sometime then tell my how the air temperature is affecting their mood. :rolleyes: Just pray for cool daytime temps so we can experience it this year and it won't just happen at night.

I knew Charley Alsheimer since the mid-80's. Great guy. I differed with some of his predictions, definitions,  and models but that is getting too deep in the weeds here.   

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1 hour ago, rob-c said:

They can predict away, it ALL hinges on weather period. If it’s warmer than it should be it will be a slow rut. 

Exactly............  If there is a real nice cold spell during that time then get in the woods..........  That is when I have killed my deer.....

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They can predict away, it ALL hinges on weather period. If it’s warmer than it should be it will be a slow rut. 
Photoperiod is what triggers the rut not the weather

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ALWAYS....figure November 10th as the "magic day". The five days on either side of the 10th are almost as good. Count on those same dates every year. No matter the moon phase or weather.

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7 hours ago, xpert66 said:

Photoperiod is what triggers the rut not the weather

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I know this , i didn't  say that weather triggers the rut. If it’s warmer than typical the rutting  action during the day will slow down if not stop.

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What about the seeking phase, not as chaotic as when bucks are chasing does past your stand/blind.

Back to the Oak Duke's prediction - anyone else have any luck or even many daylight BB sightings when there's a full moon?

Edited by nyslowhand

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As per Charlie  Alsheimers book peek chase phase is 8-17 of November.  Breeding is  November 18- December 2 . Only one more years prediction  in my book.

Edited by Nytracker

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I dont care what some people say and everyone has there own thoughts but no matter what i've always seen the most activity chasing, bucks on there feet etc between Nov 4 and the 11th dont care what any moon charts say been hunting over 30yrs and its the the same every yr.... Now you will always have that one day hear and there outside this time frame but year to year the 4th thru 11th

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